Models show more active Atlantic

[x-y-no]

didn't the GFS predict chris to become a hurricane?

Don't think so ... as far as I recall, the GFS dissipated Chris on every run. Somebody correct me if my memory is failing me.

[cheezyWXguy]

no...it kept initializing wrong and dissipated the storm early, about the time it did, but much less strength. Besides even if it did (which it may have, Im really not sure) this is before initailiztion. That is the first

[skysummit]

Cheezy and x-y, you're both correct. The GFS kept dissapating poor ole' Chris.

[x-y-no]

Cheezy and x-y, you're both correct. The GFS kept dissapating poor ole' Chris.

Glad to know oldtimers disease isn't setting in yet ...

[cycloneye]

I am old timer too recall not seeing GFS making a hurricane out of Chris.On the contrary the model didn't developed it strong never in the runs.

[dixiebreeze]

Thank you SkySummit, I really appreciate the graph -- I have dial-up.

[cycloneye]

Thank you SkySummit, I really appreciate the graph -- I have dial-up.

dixie you still have that?

[vacanechaser]

Thank you SkySummit, I really appreciate the graph -- I have dial-up.

dixie you still have that?

i didnt know they still made that??????


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[hial2]

well if the gfs model holds true than I am going to have a hurricane celebration or party in a great way because I love storms and I never experienced a storm so tell the gfs forecast model I said thanks

I cant wait for your comments after the/a hurricane devastates your area....Chill the champagne!!

[Derek Ortt]

the GFS is the only model showing anything. The other models do not show a closed surface circulation. Before leaning toward development, I' like to see some better model support

[vacanechaser]

the GFS is the only model showing anything. The other models do not show a closed surface circulation. Before leaning toward development, I' like to see some better model support

yea, but it is still very early for the models to all agree?? if i remember correctly, nothing esle but the gfs showed development out of what would become isabel..... the gfs was all over it and showed the actual landfall point in those first model runs... then of course it change a million times fro missing the coast all together to putting it inot the gulf and driving it into mexico.... trust me, i dont trust the gfs that much.... but, it has been consistant with this development at least..



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Weatherfreak14]

looks now NOGAPS is showing devlopment in its latest run at 144hr.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs//nogap ... /slp24.png

*edited by staff to make the image a link - please don't post large images that make everyone have to scroll to read every line on the page...thanks

[vacanechaser]

Mark Sudduth,will finnally your team chase something?

that just might be the case to some extent there cycloneye... looks like if the 6z is correct, we may not have very far to go.... lol.. only about 2 hours of drive time for me.... even though mark is not that far away, he would have about 5 or 6 depending on time of day.... and he lives in the state... lol... i like it when those happen... i usually have to drive 5 hours to his house in wilmington just to leave and do more driving.. lol...



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Trugunzn]

[Dean4Storms]

It is somewhat unusual for the GFS to be so bullish run after run after run and it turn out to be wrong altogether. But it is also somewhat unusual that no other model has developed the same TC to this point. All any of us can do is sit back and wait to see what occurs.

[Derek Ortt]

the models all agreed with Isabel, and the CMC was showing the equivalent of a major hurricane before Isabel moved offshore.

As for the NOGAPS, it is developing a different wave than is the GFS

[SouthFloridawx]

the models all agreed with Isabel, and the CMC was showing the equivalent of a major hurricane before Isabel moved offshore.

As for the NOGAPS, it is developing a different wave than is the GFS

NOGAPS development is higher in latitude.

[DESTRUCTION5]

shows 2 more following it too..

[vacanechaser]

the models all agreed with Isabel, and the CMC was showing the equivalent of a major hurricane before Isabel moved offshore.

As for the NOGAPS, it is developing a different wave than is the GFS

ok then... must have oldtimes setting in here... thought the gfs was on it before the rest... thanx


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[ConvergenceZone]

While the system looks great so far, if it takes longer to develop, the track will probably shift south IF it develops. On the other hand, if it develops right after emerging off the Africa coast, the track my shift north. It's too early to say, but I think this one will make a run at it.