Models show more active Atlantic

[Weatherfreak14]

the models all agreed with Isabel, and the CMC was showing the equivalent of a major hurricane before Isabel moved offshore.

As for the NOGAPS, it is developing a different wave than is the GFS

NOGAPS development is higher in latitude.

I knew that was a different. Just looks now that our season is going to huff and puff before the end.

[gatorcane]

Well it does look promising and climatology would say that it has the best chance of any wave this season.....

I'll stay tuned

[x-y-no]

The Euro carries this system as a weak low about halfway across the basin in three or maybe four days then loses it completely.

It looks more enthusiatic about the wave coming behind, though, although we'll see if it does the same thing to it once it gets about halfway ...


It does look like conditions are edging towards the start of the CV season, and like we might actually have a CV season this year.

[ThunderMate]

Hey Will, you better invite me to that hurricane party...i live in Chesapeake around the Indian River area. I love storms too but i also understand what they can do.

Looks like an Isabel type track once it reaches the islands. I want to see this thing develope and get more models to latch on before i start really watching it and before seeing you make plans for that party will!

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

It'll change a few more times down the road.

Indeed. It never follows the first several tracks, especially this far out (if it even develops at all that is).

[SouthFloridawx]

if by some small chance that GFS run would verify wouldn't that be like the perfect NYC disaster hit?

P.S. There is another thread covering this gfs development. It's the Wave about to emerge africa or something like that. That is the wave GFS is developing.

Edit here it is:
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 3&start=20

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I shouldn't, but

[linkerweather]

if by some small chance that GFS run would verify wouldn't that be like the perfect NYC disaster hit?

P.S. There is another thread covering this gfs development. It's the Wave about to emerge africa or something like that. That is the wave GFS is developing.

Edit here it is:
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 3&start=20

Based on that one run's verifying, then it would be a perfect hit for Central LI. A perfect NYC hit has to have the storm curve back NW around central NJ. That model has it continuing its typical n to ne curvature.

[gatorcane]

if by some small chance that GFS run would verify wouldn't that be like the perfect NYC disaster hit?

P.S. There is another thread covering this gfs development. It's the Wave about to emerge africa or something like that. That is the wave GFS is developing.

Edit here it is:
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 3&start=20

Based on that one run's verifying, then it would be a perfect hit for Central LI. A perfect NYC hit has to have the storm curve back NW around central NJ. That model has it continuing its typical n to ne curvature.

Yes, obviously the track will change but just looking at that potential track the GFS is showing sends chills down my spine.....

[curtadams]

How is this the "first"? GFS has predicted a number of hurricanes this season. None happened.

[bvigal]

I haven't seen any hurricanes depicted on the gfs model this year.

As to the GFS, it may not be a favorite for developed storm tracks. As our primary forecast model here in the Caribbean, I sure do trust it above anything else for the tropical Atlantic to eastern Caribbean. When GFS predicts winds/seas/precip for us, we usually have it right on cue. That confidence tells me there will be SOMETHING in this time period, passing close to or over the lesser antilles. This definitely gets my rapt attention!

[MortisFL]

How many runs in a row has GFS predicted this?

[gatorcane]

I haven't seen any hurricanes depicted on the gfs model this year.

As to the GFS, it may not be a favorite for developed storm tracks. As our primary forecast model here in the Caribbean, I sure do trust it above anything else for the tropical Atlantic to eastern Caribbean. When GFS predicts winds/seas/precip for us, we usually have it right on cue. That confidence tells me there will be SOMETHING in this time period, passing close to or over the lesser antilles. This definitely gets my rapt attention!

The GFS has predicted a couple of weak Cape Verde lows this year but nothing came of them so this is the first time we are seeing a hurricane forecasted and it has my attention

[Trugunzn]

makes it into a 974 mb hurricane, what category is that? cat 2

[Meso]

The new 12 runs up to 72 hours out are still developing the system having it at around 1007 in 72 hours... *keeps refreshing for more of the 12 hour runs*

[fci]

Yes, obviously the track will change but just looking at that potential track the GFS is showing sends chills down my spine.....[/quote]

Gatorcane:
Why would it "send chills down your spine" when it shows a track to the far east and then north of South Florida?

[CrazyC83]

makes it into a 974 mb hurricane, what category is that? cat 2

High-end Cat 1 or Cat 2.

[wxmann_91]

GFS has shown a strong hurricane earlier this month, recurving out to sea. That time, the models agreed, though not very strongly, but it didn't verify.

However, the trend with each passing run has been stronger with this system, and it continues to develop the two EPAC systems. As expected, things heat up just when school starts. Still, can't be too sure that this will materialize since none of the other globals develop it.

[Stephanie]

well if the gfs model holds true than I am going to have a hurricane celebration or party in a great way because I love storms and I never experienced a storm so tell the gfs forecast model I said thanks

will - hurricanes are exciting to see develop, from FAR AWAY. Do you remember the reports of Katrina, Rita and Wilma last year or about Ivan, Jeanne and Charley the year before? You really don't want a hurricane visiting you.

Let's just wait and see what happens.

[x-y-no]

So far the 12Z GFS run (out 132 hours so far) is significantly weaker and tracking ever so slightly further south.