Tropical Depression Hector in EPAC
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
-
bombarderoazul
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 186
- Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2005 4:12 pm
CrazyC83 wrote:bombarderoazul wrote:No doubt this will become the Epac's fourth cane of the season.
If it isn't already. I think we might see a hurricane at the 2:00 advisory.
I would say it would be good if they took the strength to 60 knots for the 2:00 pm advisory and then once it's "done" wrapping the convection around they have a special update 1-3 hours later stating it's a hurricane. The NRL has it at 55 knots still.
0 likes
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 146172
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
WTPZ44 KNHC 162035
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092006
200 PM PDT WED AUG 16 2006
VISIBLE IMAGERY DEPICTS THAT HECTOR HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A BANDING EYE BEGINNING TO FORM. DVORAK SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 AND 55 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB
RESPECTIVELY. THE INTENSITY REMAINS AT 55 KT...BUT HECTOR COULD
EASILY BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 6 HOURS. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND FOLLOWS A BLEND OF
THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 285/9. HECTOR IS MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM TEXAS...CONTINUING ON WESTWARD
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. LARGE-SCALE MODELS AND THE GFDL CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST THAT A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE WILL BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED
AFTER 72 HOURS...CAUSING HECTOR TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN MORE
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
UKMET AND THE NOGAPS REMAIN THE OUTLIERS...WITH THE UKMET
MAINTAINING A WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH DAY 5...AND NOGAPS INDICATING
A MORE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...WELL TO THE RIGHT OF THE REMAINING
GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS BASED PRIMARILY ON A CONSENSUS OF THE
GFS...GFDL...THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE.
WIND RADII ARE SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED BASED ON A 1357Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 16/2100Z 13.8N 117.6W 55 KT
12HR VT 17/0600Z 14.1N 119.0W 65 KT
24HR VT 17/1800Z 14.6N 120.7W 75 KT
36HR VT 18/0600Z 15.2N 122.6W 80 KT
48HR VT 18/1800Z 16.2N 124.8W 75 KT
72HR VT 19/1800Z 18.0N 128.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 20/1800Z 20.0N 132.0W 45 KT
120HR VT 21/1800Z 21.5N 134.0W 30 KT
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092006
200 PM PDT WED AUG 16 2006
VISIBLE IMAGERY DEPICTS THAT HECTOR HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A BANDING EYE BEGINNING TO FORM. DVORAK SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 AND 55 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB
RESPECTIVELY. THE INTENSITY REMAINS AT 55 KT...BUT HECTOR COULD
EASILY BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 6 HOURS. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND FOLLOWS A BLEND OF
THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 285/9. HECTOR IS MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM TEXAS...CONTINUING ON WESTWARD
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. LARGE-SCALE MODELS AND THE GFDL CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST THAT A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE WILL BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED
AFTER 72 HOURS...CAUSING HECTOR TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN MORE
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
UKMET AND THE NOGAPS REMAIN THE OUTLIERS...WITH THE UKMET
MAINTAINING A WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH DAY 5...AND NOGAPS INDICATING
A MORE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...WELL TO THE RIGHT OF THE REMAINING
GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS BASED PRIMARILY ON A CONSENSUS OF THE
GFS...GFDL...THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE.
WIND RADII ARE SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED BASED ON A 1357Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 16/2100Z 13.8N 117.6W 55 KT
12HR VT 17/0600Z 14.1N 119.0W 65 KT
24HR VT 17/1800Z 14.6N 120.7W 75 KT
36HR VT 18/0600Z 15.2N 122.6W 80 KT
48HR VT 18/1800Z 16.2N 124.8W 75 KT
72HR VT 19/1800Z 18.0N 128.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 20/1800Z 20.0N 132.0W 45 KT
120HR VT 21/1800Z 21.5N 134.0W 30 KT
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
First % chance that Tropical Storm Hector will become a:
Tropical Depression: 100%
Tropical Storm: 100%
Hurricane: 85%
Category 2 Hurricane: 50%
Category 3 Hurricane: 20%
Category 4 Hurricane: 8%
Category 5 Hurricane: Lower then 1%
THe NHC kept Hector at 55 knots which was a bit conservative at 4:40 pm EST. I think it was more like 60 knots at that time. They (NHC) did say that Hector could easily become a hurricane in the next 6 hours which I totally agree with. It looked like the tropical cyclone was wrapping around that convection tightly or at least trying to during the last 2 hours. It appears that the end of the wrap may have "failed" but can very easily make a comeback. I'm not totally sure on that part so take that with a grain of salt. That's only using the AVN but on SAT it appears that the wrapping is still occurring and an eye could start to poke out. I'd say it's at 60 knots right now and then that will change very soon due to this stage the cyclone is going through currently.
Tropical Depression: 100%
Tropical Storm: 100%
Hurricane: 85%
Category 2 Hurricane: 50%
Category 3 Hurricane: 20%
Category 4 Hurricane: 8%
Category 5 Hurricane: Lower then 1%
THe NHC kept Hector at 55 knots which was a bit conservative at 4:40 pm EST. I think it was more like 60 knots at that time. They (NHC) did say that Hector could easily become a hurricane in the next 6 hours which I totally agree with. It looked like the tropical cyclone was wrapping around that convection tightly or at least trying to during the last 2 hours. It appears that the end of the wrap may have "failed" but can very easily make a comeback. I'm not totally sure on that part so take that with a grain of salt. That's only using the AVN but on SAT it appears that the wrapping is still occurring and an eye could start to poke out. I'd say it's at 60 knots right now and then that will change very soon due to this stage the cyclone is going through currently.
0 likes
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 146172
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
318
WTPZ44 KNHC 170232
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092006
800 PM PDT WED AUG 16 2006
THE INTENSIFICATION TREND THAT HECTOR WENT THROUGH EARLIER IN THE
DAY APPEARS TO HAVE TAKEN A TEMPORARY HIATUS. CURRENT SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE NOW BECOME A CONSENSUS 3.5 FROM ALL THREE
AGENCIES AND JUSTIFY MAINTAINING THE SYSTEM AT AN INTENSITY OF 55
KT.
HECTOR APPEARS TO HAVE TAKEN A SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWESTWARD JOG
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 290/9...BUT THIS
COULD BE PART OF A SERIES OF WOBBLES AS THE CONVECTION TRIES TO
ORGANIZE. NONETHELESS...THE SYSTEM HAS REACHED THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND IS
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ONLY NUDGED FARTHER NORTH
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CURRENT
MOTION...BUT THEN FALLS IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BEYOND
THAT. THIS TRACK IS ALSO SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS IN
ORDER TO PLACE LESS EMPHASIS ON THE UKMET MODEL...WHICH APPEARS TO
HAVE HAD A SOUTHWARD BIAS SO FAR.
INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT HECTOR MAY NOT HAVE ENOUGH TIME TO
STRENGTHEN AS MUCH AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
BECOME MARGINAL AT 48 HOURS AND THE STORM IS ALREADY MOVING INTO A
MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT OF STRATOCUMULUS TO ITS NORTHWEST. THE
FORECAST FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE AND ONLY STRENGTHENS HECTOR TO 75 KT BY 36 HOURS.
THEREAFTER...INCREASINGLY DRIER AIR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE THEIR TOLL WITH HECTOR LIKELY TO BECOME A
DEPRESSION BY 120 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 17/0300Z 14.3N 118.6W 55 KT
12HR VT 17/1200Z 14.7N 119.7W 65 KT
24HR VT 18/0000Z 15.4N 121.4W 70 KT
36HR VT 18/1200Z 16.2N 123.5W 75 KT
48HR VT 19/0000Z 17.0N 125.6W 70 KT
72HR VT 20/0000Z 19.0N 129.5W 55 KT
96HR VT 21/0000Z 21.0N 132.5W 40 KT
120HR VT 22/0000Z 22.5N 134.5W 25 KT
$$
FORECASTER BERG/PASCH
WTPZ44 KNHC 170232
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092006
800 PM PDT WED AUG 16 2006
THE INTENSIFICATION TREND THAT HECTOR WENT THROUGH EARLIER IN THE
DAY APPEARS TO HAVE TAKEN A TEMPORARY HIATUS. CURRENT SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE NOW BECOME A CONSENSUS 3.5 FROM ALL THREE
AGENCIES AND JUSTIFY MAINTAINING THE SYSTEM AT AN INTENSITY OF 55
KT.
HECTOR APPEARS TO HAVE TAKEN A SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWESTWARD JOG
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 290/9...BUT THIS
COULD BE PART OF A SERIES OF WOBBLES AS THE CONVECTION TRIES TO
ORGANIZE. NONETHELESS...THE SYSTEM HAS REACHED THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND IS
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ONLY NUDGED FARTHER NORTH
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CURRENT
MOTION...BUT THEN FALLS IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BEYOND
THAT. THIS TRACK IS ALSO SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS IN
ORDER TO PLACE LESS EMPHASIS ON THE UKMET MODEL...WHICH APPEARS TO
HAVE HAD A SOUTHWARD BIAS SO FAR.
INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT HECTOR MAY NOT HAVE ENOUGH TIME TO
STRENGTHEN AS MUCH AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
BECOME MARGINAL AT 48 HOURS AND THE STORM IS ALREADY MOVING INTO A
MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT OF STRATOCUMULUS TO ITS NORTHWEST. THE
FORECAST FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE AND ONLY STRENGTHENS HECTOR TO 75 KT BY 36 HOURS.
THEREAFTER...INCREASINGLY DRIER AIR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE THEIR TOLL WITH HECTOR LIKELY TO BECOME A
DEPRESSION BY 120 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 17/0300Z 14.3N 118.6W 55 KT
12HR VT 17/1200Z 14.7N 119.7W 65 KT
24HR VT 18/0000Z 15.4N 121.4W 70 KT
36HR VT 18/1200Z 16.2N 123.5W 75 KT
48HR VT 19/0000Z 17.0N 125.6W 70 KT
72HR VT 20/0000Z 19.0N 129.5W 55 KT
96HR VT 21/0000Z 21.0N 132.5W 40 KT
120HR VT 22/0000Z 22.5N 134.5W 25 KT
$$
FORECASTER BERG/PASCH
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
SkeetoBite
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 515
- Age: 59
- Joined: Fri Sep 03, 2004 8:25 am
- Contact:
-
JonathanBelles
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 11430
- Age: 35
- Joined: Sat Dec 24, 2005 9:00 pm
- Location: School: Florida State University (Tallahassee, FL) Home: St. Petersburg, Florida
- Contact:
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 146172
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
fact789 wrote:skeetobite check your time (it says 5:00 EDT)
I see the time correct 11:00 PM EDT.
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
New % chance that Tropical Storm Hector will become a:
Tropical Depression: 100%
Tropical Storm: 100%
Hurricane: 75%
Category 2 Hurricane: 25%
Category 3 Hurricane: 10%
Category 4 Hurricane: 4%
Category 5 Hurricane: Lower then 0.5%
That's the change for Hector. Since Hector is being "lazy" right now and not strengthening, my % chance for him to become a hurricane has been lowered to 75%. Everything beyond that has been cut in half due to the fact time is running out for rapid strengthening and the such.
The last update by the NHC was not a surprise. Hector has failed again for the 2nd or 3rd time to successfully wrap the convection all the way around the center and create a "ring" followed by an eye. This is why Hector is not strengthening or becoming a hurricane. It has been doing the same thing and looking like the same for over 10 hours. Right now, after the failed wrap around, there is a round, sharp new burst of deep convection to the left of where I thought the center was. I'm not totally sure what this means but we will have to wait some more.
Tropical Depression: 100%
Tropical Storm: 100%
Hurricane: 75%
Category 2 Hurricane: 25%
Category 3 Hurricane: 10%
Category 4 Hurricane: 4%
Category 5 Hurricane: Lower then 0.5%
That's the change for Hector. Since Hector is being "lazy" right now and not strengthening, my % chance for him to become a hurricane has been lowered to 75%. Everything beyond that has been cut in half due to the fact time is running out for rapid strengthening and the such.
The last update by the NHC was not a surprise. Hector has failed again for the 2nd or 3rd time to successfully wrap the convection all the way around the center and create a "ring" followed by an eye. This is why Hector is not strengthening or becoming a hurricane. It has been doing the same thing and looking like the same for over 10 hours. Right now, after the failed wrap around, there is a round, sharp new burst of deep convection to the left of where I thought the center was. I'm not totally sure what this means but we will have to wait some more.
0 likes
-
AnnularCane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 2879
- Joined: Thu Jun 08, 2006 9:18 am
- Location: Wytheville, VA
Now that I look back, Hurricane Carlotta did the same thing Hector is doing right now. In fact, Hector has been the same type of strom Carlotta was this whole time. It's the type of storm where you expect something big to happen at any time and it doesn't. 
Tropical Storm Hector is now at 60 knots with a pressure of 989 mb. This is according to the NRL not the NHC. This means that there is a 95% chance that the NHC will set Hector's strength to 60 knots because the NRL is correct 95% of the time! So he is almost a hurricane.
Tropical Storm Hector is now at 60 knots with a pressure of 989 mb. This is according to the NRL not the NHC. This means that there is a 95% chance that the NHC will set Hector's strength to 60 knots because the NRL is correct 95% of the time! So he is almost a hurricane.
Last edited by Cyclenall on Thu Aug 17, 2006 2:35 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
-
AussieMark
- Category 5
- Posts: 5858
- Joined: Tue Sep 02, 2003 6:36 pm
- Location: near Sydney, Australia
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 146172
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
295
WTPZ44 KNHC 170833
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092006
200 AM PDT THU AUG 17 2006
INFRARED IMAGERY THIS MORNING INDICATES THAT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH HECTOR HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH CLOUD TOPS COLDER
THAN -80C NOW CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE NOW 65 KT FROM TAFB...AND 55 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 60 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 290/9...ALTHOUGH A WESTWARD JOG MAY BE
UNDERWAY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. HECTOR IS ON THE SOUTHWEST
SIDE OF A LARGE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES...MOVING TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE NEAR 25N130W.
THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS GENERAL PATTERN TO PERSIST FOR
72 HR OR SO...FOLLOWED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE MID/UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH N OF 25N W OF 125W. THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP HECTOR
MOVING GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR 72 HR...WITH A MORE
NORTHWARD MOTION LIKELY THEREAFTER. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS
FAIRLY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UKMET WHICH
KEEPS MORE RIDGING NORTH OF HECTOR AND THUS CONTINUES TO FORECAST A
MORE WESTWARD MOTION. THE TRACK FORECAST IS NUDGED A LITTLE SOUTH
OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE CURRENT POSITION...LYING ALONG
THE LEFT EDGE OF THE MAIN GUIDANCE CLUSTER. IT IS ALSO A LITTLE
FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
HECTOR REMAINS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY
SHEAR...AND IT IS APPROACHING AN UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS
THAT EXISTS BETWEEN UPPER-LEVEL HIGHS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
NEAR SOCORRO ISLAND AND 16N134W. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST
THAT THIS DUAL-HIGH PATTERN WILL BE REPLACED BY A SINGLE
UPPER-LEVEL HIGH NEAR OR OVER HECTOR IN 24-48 HR...WHICH WOULD
DECREASE THE SHEAR. HOWEVER...BY THAT TIME HECTOR SHOULD BE MOVING
OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE SHIPS MODEL RESPONDS TO
THESE CONDITIONS BY FORECASTING STEADY WEAKENING...WHILE THE GFDL
CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING TO 75 KT IN 24-36 HR FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THE GFDL FOR THE FIRST 24
HR...WITH HECTOR FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY. IT
THEN FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE GFDL AND SHIPS FOR THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER 72-96 HR...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST
A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SHEAR DUE TO THE DEVELOPING MID/
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...HECTOR COULD WEAKEN FASTER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 17/0900Z 14.5N 119.6W 60 KT
12HR VT 17/1800Z 15.0N 121.0W 70 KT
24HR VT 18/0600Z 15.8N 123.0W 75 KT
36HR VT 18/1800Z 16.6N 125.0W 70 KT
48HR VT 19/0600Z 17.4N 127.1W 60 KT
72HR VT 20/0600Z 19.5N 130.5W 50 KT
96HR VT 21/0600Z 21.0N 133.0W 35 KT
120HR VT 22/0600Z 23.0N 135.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
WTPZ44 KNHC 170833
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092006
200 AM PDT THU AUG 17 2006
INFRARED IMAGERY THIS MORNING INDICATES THAT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH HECTOR HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH CLOUD TOPS COLDER
THAN -80C NOW CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE NOW 65 KT FROM TAFB...AND 55 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 60 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 290/9...ALTHOUGH A WESTWARD JOG MAY BE
UNDERWAY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. HECTOR IS ON THE SOUTHWEST
SIDE OF A LARGE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES...MOVING TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE NEAR 25N130W.
THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS GENERAL PATTERN TO PERSIST FOR
72 HR OR SO...FOLLOWED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE MID/UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH N OF 25N W OF 125W. THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP HECTOR
MOVING GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR 72 HR...WITH A MORE
NORTHWARD MOTION LIKELY THEREAFTER. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS
FAIRLY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UKMET WHICH
KEEPS MORE RIDGING NORTH OF HECTOR AND THUS CONTINUES TO FORECAST A
MORE WESTWARD MOTION. THE TRACK FORECAST IS NUDGED A LITTLE SOUTH
OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE CURRENT POSITION...LYING ALONG
THE LEFT EDGE OF THE MAIN GUIDANCE CLUSTER. IT IS ALSO A LITTLE
FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
HECTOR REMAINS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY
SHEAR...AND IT IS APPROACHING AN UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS
THAT EXISTS BETWEEN UPPER-LEVEL HIGHS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
NEAR SOCORRO ISLAND AND 16N134W. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST
THAT THIS DUAL-HIGH PATTERN WILL BE REPLACED BY A SINGLE
UPPER-LEVEL HIGH NEAR OR OVER HECTOR IN 24-48 HR...WHICH WOULD
DECREASE THE SHEAR. HOWEVER...BY THAT TIME HECTOR SHOULD BE MOVING
OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE SHIPS MODEL RESPONDS TO
THESE CONDITIONS BY FORECASTING STEADY WEAKENING...WHILE THE GFDL
CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING TO 75 KT IN 24-36 HR FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THE GFDL FOR THE FIRST 24
HR...WITH HECTOR FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY. IT
THEN FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE GFDL AND SHIPS FOR THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER 72-96 HR...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST
A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SHEAR DUE TO THE DEVELOPING MID/
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...HECTOR COULD WEAKEN FASTER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 17/0900Z 14.5N 119.6W 60 KT
12HR VT 17/1800Z 15.0N 121.0W 70 KT
24HR VT 18/0600Z 15.8N 123.0W 75 KT
36HR VT 18/1800Z 16.6N 125.0W 70 KT
48HR VT 19/0600Z 17.4N 127.1W 60 KT
72HR VT 20/0600Z 19.5N 130.5W 50 KT
96HR VT 21/0600Z 21.0N 133.0W 35 KT
120HR VT 22/0600Z 23.0N 135.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 146172
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
HURRICANE HECTOR (EP092006) ON 20060817 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060817 1200 060818 0000 060818 1200 060819 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.6N 120.7W 15.1N 122.4W 15.7N 124.0W 16.4N 125.7W
BAMM 14.6N 120.7W 15.2N 122.4W 15.9N 124.2W 16.8N 126.2W
LBAR 14.6N 120.7W 15.3N 122.8W 16.4N 125.4W 17.6N 128.2W
SHIP 75KTS 82KTS 80KTS 73KTS
DSHP 75KTS 82KTS 80KTS 73KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060819 1200 060820 1200 060821 1200 060822 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.3N 127.4W 19.8N 130.0W 22.8N 130.8W 26.0N 130.5W
BAMM 17.8N 128.2W 19.9N 131.5W 22.0N 133.4W 24.2N 134.3W
LBAR 18.6N 130.6W 21.2N 134.2W 25.1N 135.1W 32.0N 133.5W
SHIP 65KTS 50KTS 34KTS 18KTS
DSHP 65KTS 50KTS 34KTS 18KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.6N LONCUR = 120.7W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 14.1N LONM12 = 118.1W DIRM12 = 284DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 13.4N LONM24 = 116.4W
WNDCUR = 75KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 55KT
CENPRS = 979MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 250NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 100NM RD34SE = 100NM RD34SW = 90NM RD34NW = 90NM
Hector is now a hurricane per models and ssd sat estimates of 4.0/4.0.
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060817 1200 060818 0000 060818 1200 060819 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.6N 120.7W 15.1N 122.4W 15.7N 124.0W 16.4N 125.7W
BAMM 14.6N 120.7W 15.2N 122.4W 15.9N 124.2W 16.8N 126.2W
LBAR 14.6N 120.7W 15.3N 122.8W 16.4N 125.4W 17.6N 128.2W
SHIP 75KTS 82KTS 80KTS 73KTS
DSHP 75KTS 82KTS 80KTS 73KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060819 1200 060820 1200 060821 1200 060822 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.3N 127.4W 19.8N 130.0W 22.8N 130.8W 26.0N 130.5W
BAMM 17.8N 128.2W 19.9N 131.5W 22.0N 133.4W 24.2N 134.3W
LBAR 18.6N 130.6W 21.2N 134.2W 25.1N 135.1W 32.0N 133.5W
SHIP 65KTS 50KTS 34KTS 18KTS
DSHP 65KTS 50KTS 34KTS 18KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.6N LONCUR = 120.7W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 14.1N LONM12 = 118.1W DIRM12 = 284DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 13.4N LONM24 = 116.4W
WNDCUR = 75KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 55KT
CENPRS = 979MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 250NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 100NM RD34SE = 100NM RD34SW = 90NM RD34NW = 90NM
Hector is now a hurricane per models and ssd sat estimates of 4.0/4.0.
0 likes
000
WTPZ44 KNHC 171444
TCDEP4
HURRICANE HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092006
800 AM PDT THU AUG 17 2006
ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS THAT A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
FEATURE HAS DEVELOPED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...WITH A
WELL-DEVELOPED WHITE BAND OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO 77
KT AND 65 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY...AND ADT CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUGGEST HECTOR IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN 70 KT.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 75 KT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES AN IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW CHANNEL OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE SYSTEM...WITH LIGHT UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLIES OVER THE REMAINING
PORTIONS. INTENSITY MODELS SUGGEST NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE
ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS...THEREFORE...A LITTLE MORE
INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST. AFTERWARD...GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE BEGINS TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS
AND WITHIN A LESS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. BY DAY
3...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
AS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST OF HAWAII...ALONG
140W. THIS SCENARIO COULD INFLUENCE RAPID WEAKENING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 290/11. HECTOR IS ON THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE EXTENDING OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC TO 27N130W FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE
SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...TURNING MORE NORTHWESTWARD THEREAFTER AS A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO...AND IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS...WITH LESS EMPHASIS ON THE UKMET.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 17/1500Z 14.7N 121.1W 75 KT
12HR VT 18/0000Z 15.3N 122.8W 80 KT
24HR VT 18/1200Z 16.2N 124.9W 80 KT
36HR VT 19/0000Z 17.1N 126.9W 75 KT
48HR VT 19/1200Z 18.0N 128.9W 70 KT
72HR VT 20/1200Z 20.0N 132.0W 55 KT
96HR VT 21/1200Z 21.5N 134.0W 35 KT
120HR VT 22/1200Z 22.5N 136.0W 25 KT
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB
WTPZ44 KNHC 171444
TCDEP4
HURRICANE HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092006
800 AM PDT THU AUG 17 2006
ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS THAT A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
FEATURE HAS DEVELOPED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...WITH A
WELL-DEVELOPED WHITE BAND OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO 77
KT AND 65 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY...AND ADT CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUGGEST HECTOR IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN 70 KT.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 75 KT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES AN IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW CHANNEL OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE SYSTEM...WITH LIGHT UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLIES OVER THE REMAINING
PORTIONS. INTENSITY MODELS SUGGEST NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE
ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS...THEREFORE...A LITTLE MORE
INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST. AFTERWARD...GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE BEGINS TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS
AND WITHIN A LESS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. BY DAY
3...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
AS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST OF HAWAII...ALONG
140W. THIS SCENARIO COULD INFLUENCE RAPID WEAKENING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 290/11. HECTOR IS ON THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE EXTENDING OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC TO 27N130W FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE
SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...TURNING MORE NORTHWESTWARD THEREAFTER AS A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO...AND IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS...WITH LESS EMPHASIS ON THE UKMET.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 17/1500Z 14.7N 121.1W 75 KT
12HR VT 18/0000Z 15.3N 122.8W 80 KT
24HR VT 18/1200Z 16.2N 124.9W 80 KT
36HR VT 19/0000Z 17.1N 126.9W 75 KT
48HR VT 19/1200Z 18.0N 128.9W 70 KT
72HR VT 20/1200Z 20.0N 132.0W 55 KT
96HR VT 21/1200Z 21.5N 134.0W 35 KT
120HR VT 22/1200Z 22.5N 136.0W 25 KT
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB
0 likes
-
SouthFloridawx
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 8346
- Age: 46
- Joined: Tue Jul 26, 2005 1:16 am
- Location: Sarasota, FL
- Contact:
Finally Hector got his act together and starting moving forward. Last night at 3:00 am EST he was the same but stronger at 60 knots. Then, it appears he made another try at wrapping that deep convection around and was successful at doing so but then the convection weakened in the band but it doesn't really matter because that inner core is set. Now deep convection is pretty much around the center that's looking like a eye is going to poke out shortly. The organization has improved greatly and looks better then ever.
Hurricane Hector went through some fast strengthening this morning jumping up another 15 knots in 6 hours. I thought this would happen since Hector was doing nothing and then got his act together quickly enough. I'd say he has a fair chance at becoming a CAT2 hurricane before weakening. I hope he goes on a more west track so that he doesn't weakening as quickly. Too bad shear will be getting higher by 96 hours plus the colder water. More later.
Hurricane Hector went through some fast strengthening this morning jumping up another 15 knots in 6 hours. I thought this would happen since Hector was doing nothing and then got his act together quickly enough. I'd say he has a fair chance at becoming a CAT2 hurricane before weakening. I hope he goes on a more west track so that he doesn't weakening as quickly. Too bad shear will be getting higher by 96 hours plus the colder water. More later.
0 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: Coolcruiseman, Google [Bot], LarryWx, pepecool20 and 66 guests