Invest 93L,E of Florida,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

[Sanibel]

The system is caught in limbo between trying to form and being kept down by a hostile environment. It will probably do this all the way in if it goes over land.

The dry air being forced down on it should moisten as it hits that stationary front the system is engrained in. The tropical flow is recharging that front from the SE as it piles into it.

[Thunder44]

Looks like the thunderstorms are becoming removed from the LLC again to the south on visible and radar imagery. Another little cluster of storms has develop further north.

[Stormavoider]

I think the LLC has shifted significantly SSW. I think its right on the edge of that intense convection.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=32&lon=-78&info=vis&zoom=1&width=2800&height=2000&type=Animation&numframes=8&palette=ir.pal

[Thunder44]

972
NOUS42 KNHC 171430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT THUR 17 AUG 2006
SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
VALID 18/1100Z TO 19/1100Z AUG 2006
TSPOD NUMBER.....06-079

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE
3. ALL TASKING ON SUSPECT AREA OFF CAROLINA COAST CANCELLED
BY NHC AT 17/1200Z
They cancelled the flights for this system today and no more are scheduled.

[DROliver]

972
NOUS42 KNHC 171430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT THUR 17 AUG 2006
SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
VALID 18/1100Z TO 19/1100Z AUG 2006
TSPOD NUMBER.....06-079

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE
3. ALL TASKING ON SUSPECT AREA OFF CAROLINA COAST CANCELLED
BY NHC AT 17/1200Z
They cancelled the flights for this system today and no more are scheduled.

Excellent News!

But it does look better organized today.

[Stormavoider]

I think these winds indicate the LLC is within this BLOB.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=SKMG1

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41004

[hurricanefloyd5]

Looks like the thunderstorms are becoming removed from the LLC again to the south on visible and radar imagery. Another little cluster of storms has develop further north.

i hope the system ....... i mean the low moves to florida because we are very dry and in 1-2 counties we are very very dry!!!!conuties in central are in the 600 range and the from 100-800 with 800 being the driest and the numbers keeps climbing!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[DROliver]

Looks like the thunderstorms are becoming removed from the LLC again to the south on visible and radar imagery. Another little cluster of storms has develop further north.

i hope the system ....... i mean the low moves to florida because we are very dry and in 1-2 counties we are very very dry!!!!conuties in central are in the 600 range and the from 100-800 with 800 being the driest and the numbers keeps climbing!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Yep We do need the rain.

[Thunder44]

I think these winds indicate the LLC is within this BLOB.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=SKMG1

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41004

It supports the center that can be seen circulating on radar between the big cluster of storms to south and a the smaller one to the north. It's seems to have opened up a little bit and it maybe ripped apart later today as shear continues to increase.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[Stormavoider]

I think these winds indicate the LLC is within this BLOB.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=SKMG1

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41004

It supports the center that can be seen circulating on radar between the big cluster of storms to south and a the smaller one to the north. It's seems to have opened up a little bit and it maybe ripped apart later today as shear continues to increase.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

I think the center relocated. What used to be the center's northern edge is now a band rotating in toward the new center.

[Thunder44]

972
ABNT20 KNHC 171531
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT THU AUG 17 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 70 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA...CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
DISORGANIZED AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM APPEARS UNLIKELY AND THE AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE MISSION FOR TODAY HAS BEEN CANCELED.
HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL A SMALL CHANCE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME
MORE UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. EVEN IF A DEPRESSION DOES NOT
FORM...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF GUSTY WINDS COULD
AFFECT COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTH CAROLINA...GEORGIA...AND NORTHEASTERN
FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS
SOUTHWESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB

[HURAKAN]

It seems TD 4 will have to find another host.

[Thunder44]

The chance of development appears to be very small, but it will be interesting to see this afternoon if the thunderstorm cluster north of the center can meet up with the bigger cluster down south and tighten the center a little bit today.

[SouthFloridawx]

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ive_0.html

Looks to be moving southwest but, maybe my eyes are decieving me.

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png

Models take it SW'ward

[hurricanefloyd5]

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_storm_relative_0.html

Looks to be moving southwest but, maybe my eyes are decieving me.

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png

Models take it SW'ward

it's not moving southwest it's drifting southwest according to the NHC!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[skufful]

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_storm_relative_0.html

Looks to be moving southwest but, maybe my eyes are decieving me.

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png

Models take it SW'ward

it's not moving southwest it's drifting southwest according to the NHC!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Six Half Dozen

[Thunder44]

Looks the thunderstorm cluster on the north side will diminish soon. It just let out a big outlfow boundary.

[cpdaman]

have they ever resheduled a recon after cancelling one (within say 12 hours)

NOT that i think this has a chance of being anything hurricane like but due to the fact

1. that it is moving south west ward slowly which will give it more time over water (and the southward component could lessen the total and or relative shear the system takes head on)

2. and it is So close to the u.s

[gatorcane]

since when has this thing started drifting SW, I thought it was going head North????

Amazing

[Thunder44]

have they ever resheduled a recon after cancelling one (within say 12 hours)

NOT that i think this has a chance of being anything hurricane like but due to the fact

1. that it is moving south west ward slowly which will give it more time over water (and the southward component could lessen the total and or relative shear the system takes head on)

2. and it is So close to the u.s

Once they decide to cancel it's hard for them to get another plane out there within 24hrs again. I think TPC just doesn't expect any significant development out of it and decided to rely on surface obs to for any signs of further development.

The worse it could probably due now is increase its winds enough get TD status, but looking at some buoys this afternoon is seems that winds have decreased from this morning and pressures are rising. Thunderstorms overall look to be diminishing as well on radar:

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes