Models show more active Atlantic

[x-y-no]

Wheeeee!

Maybe Weatherfreak14 is right ...

next batch of frames just got posted, and darned if it doesn't have it making a sharp north turn before getting to the islands ....


What's the old saying? Oh yeah ... "the GFS is on crack."

It's entertaining to look at this stuff, but I'm not about to get excited over anything any one model says out beyond two days or so.

[Meso]

To clear up... previous runs showed the system as a strong system near the end of it's run... But the 12z is only released up till 174 hours so far... and the system is still evident on the new runs... just different http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... arib.shtml

[ThunderMate]

Whats so bad about that graphic at 174 hours?

[x-y-no]

Still makes it a 992mb hurricane by the end of the run.

Track a bit to the left and slower than the old one.

[wxmann_91]

384 hr

We have way too much time on our hands.

[SouthFloridawx]

Still makes it a 992mb hurricane by the end of the run.

Track a bit to the left and slower than the old one.

Where do you get your model runs at cause the NCEP site shows:

174 Hours
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... el_s.shtml

[Weatherfreak14]

Wheeeee!

Maybe Weatherfreak14 is right ...

next batch of frames just got posted, and darned if it doesn't have it making a sharp north turn before getting to the islands ....


What's the old saying? Oh yeah ... "the GFS is on crack."

It's entertaining to look at this stuff, but I'm not about to get excited over anything any one model says out beyond two days or so.

I agree, I never believe anything past 3 days but whats left on the model I take into a possiblity.

[tomboudreau]

As far as I'mconcerning the 9 others in my group...it can stay far far far away from the Outer Banks the last week of August, thank you very much We dont need to be chased away on the much deserved vacation.

[ThunderMate]

I still like the track after three runs and it still is trending towards something. Is it moving WNW or NW at the end of its run or west or north to recurve. Anyway you look at it it is trending towards an east coast storm.

[Weatherfreak14]

Thats where im supposedly to be goin in the last week of august but now( not cause Hurricane) we decieded not to go.

[x-y-no]

384 hr

We have way too much time on our hands.

And that's the thing ... I don't.

I'm preparing a presentation while I'm messing around with this stuff.

OK ... back to work now ...

[Trugunzn]

makes it a big system

[x-y-no]

Still makes it a 992mb hurricane by the end of the run.

Track a bit to the left and slower than the old one.

Where do you get your model runs at cause the NCEP site shows:

174 Hours
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... el_s.shtml

The scripts don't pick up the new images instantly, so if I'm impatient I go to the directories where the images are stored. Go to here and click on the run you're interested in. You'll get a directory listing, including update times. Refresh periodically and watch the update times on the image files for when they flip to today's date.

There's a zillion images in there, so as I said, this is only worth doing if you're really impatient like me.

[Stormhunter27]

Try my friend's site:

http://www.idonthaveawebpage.com

He's a forecaster here in Toronto and he did a great job putting together an automated site for GFS and NAM

Mark

[vacanechaser]

here is the 384 hour map... still a hurricane, but weaker than the 6z.... also, just off the coast of the carolinas.... so the gfs is consistant to this point.... changes in strength, but still there




Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[cycloneye]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

For those who want to see the 12z loop here it is.Still has a hurricane but starts weaker than previous runs.

MortisFL,GFS has showed this system for more than 3 days but not as a hurricane until the last 2 runs.As others haved said,I would like to see a more model consensus about this but at least GFS has been consistent with it.

[vacanechaser]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/index_ten_l_loop.shtml

For those who want to see the 12z loop here it is.Still has a hurricane but starts weaker than previous runs.

MortisFL,GFS has showed this system for more than 3 days but not as a hurricane until the last 2 runs.As others haved said,I would like to see a more model consensus about this but at least GFS has been consistent with it.

not to mention it stalls it out along the coast... just east of florida... then sends it northward....



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[gatorcane]

Looks like the GFS wants to bring it much farther south now.....and puts it off the FL East Coast.

[Derek Ortt]

992mb in a global model is the equivalent of a major due to the poor resolution of a global model

[ConvergenceZone]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/index_ten_l_loop.shtml

For those who want to see the 12z loop here it is.Still has a hurricane but starts weaker than previous runs.

MortisFL,GFS has showed this system for more than 3 days but not as a hurricane until the last 2 runs.As others haved said,I would like to see a more model consensus about this but at least GFS has been consistent with it.

cyclone, is it showing it as a fish?(hopefully). My only concern is that IF it does develop that it takes it's sweet time, and thus doesn't make the sharp north turn