Models show more active Atlantic

[SouthFloridawx]

UKMET showing some vorticity in the same general area of GFS. Nothing as organized but, there is some agreement on some type of energy there.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... hour=144hr

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

The CMC model not showing anything on this wave but, it is showing a Storm going into the GOM and hitting the Central Gulf Coast.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... hour=144hr

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

The MM5FSU also organizes this area as the GFS does.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsutc ... hour=120hr

Waiting on the NOGAPS if anyone has that please post it.

[ConvergenceZone]

Another question, can someone tell me which exact wave they are developing?? I'm confused about this.

Thanks!

Dusty

[Derek Ortt]

I would not use 850mb vorticity. A system can have 850mb vorticity, but not a closed low. Use the SLP fields for determining cyclogenesis. You'll get far fewer false alarms

[Thunder44]

992mb in a global model is the equivalent of a major due to the poor resolution of a global model

Derek how do you calculate that? Is there a set formula or chart for a pressure the models show for storms?

[OuterBanker]

"As far as I'mconcerning the 9 others in my group...it can stay far far far away from the Outer Banks the last week of August, thank you very much We dont need to be chased away on the much deserved vacation."

Come on down tomboudreau, love to see you From Pgh here, businees here 29 yrs. Find me and wife at.

http://www.jewelrybygail.com/Home.asp

[Meso]

It seems to be hinting at the wave coming off the coast in 12 hours +- so which ever wave that is... it's that one

[MortisFL]

A lot of moisture out there to work with..something that has lacked previously.

[SouthFloridawx]

I would not use 850mb vorticity. A system can have 850mb vorticity, but not a closed low. Use the SLP fields for determining cyclogenesis. You'll get far fewer false alarms

Derek, I posted above what I saw from the runs. I know that the UKMET is not showing anything organized but, the vorticity indicates that it may be picking on the same wave because it is in the general area that the GFS is in.

The CMC run on vorticity shows a closed low and so does the SLP.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... hour=138hr

The FSUMM5 is also showing a closed low.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/mm5/slp.40.png

Show me where I was wrong about what I posted?

I do look at the SLP as well as the Vorticity because sometimes the vorticity will show the wave but, the SLP does not show anything closed. I use it to track the waves.

[cycloneye]

Another question, can someone tell me which exact wave they are developing?? I'm confused about this.

Thanks!

Dusty

It's wave that is south in latitud around 10n that will exit Africa in the next 6-12 hours.

[tomboudreau]

"As far as I'mconcerning the 9 others in my group...it can stay far far far away from the Outer Banks the last week of August, thank you very much We dont need to be chased away on the much deserved vacation."

Come on down tomboudreau, love to see you From Pgh here, businees here 29 yrs. Find me and wife at.

http://www.jewelrybygail.com/Home.asp

Where you guys located? Which mile post? I will try to stop by while we are done.

[OuterBanker]

Milepost 10 1/4 between the hwys on Driftwood St. We are near Slamin Sammy's, Kelly's, Cristmas Mouse, and the new Harris Teeter (you will love it, like Giant Eagle).

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

If the pattern indicated below (in bold) verifies, then it might keep anything that does develop this period from recurving, until it is dangerously close to North America:

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
127 PM EDT THU AUG 17 2006

VALID 12Z SUN AUG 20 2006 - 12Z THU AUG 24 2006

TELECONNECTIONS W/STABLE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARND NORTH AMERICA
CONTINUE TO FAVOR A WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH CONFIGURATION.
THE MDLS WERE REASONABLY CLOSE EARLY ON..CHANGED EARLIER PROGS
CLOSER TO THE 06Z GFS FOR SIMPLIFICATION AND CONTINUITY AND
DETAILS OVER THE OCEANS. THRU MOST OF THIS PERIOD THE MODELS..GFS
AND ITS ENSEMBLES IN PARTICULAR CONT TO INDICATE A PATTERN CHANGE
TOWARDS A WRN RIDGE ERN TROF CONFIGURATION WITH A MEAN TROF ALONG
85W. THERE HAS BEEN RECENTLY A LOT OF MODEL SPREAD IN THE N PAC
WITH THE 00Z ECMWF HOLDING BACK WWD A CLOSED LOW IN THE BERING SEA
WITH GFS CONTG TO HAVE A MEAN TROF OVER AK WITH AN EXTENSION INTO
DEEP CLOSE LOW S OF THE ALEUTIANS. THIS RESULTS IN D+8 TO 11
DIFFERENCES WITH THE GFS SERIES CONTG WITH A WRN CONUS RIDGE AND
ERN CONUS TROF WHILE THE ECMWF BEGINS TO AMPLIFY A WEST TROF AND
ERN RIDGE. D+11 MEANS OF CANADIAN/DAVA AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ALL
DEAMPLIFY THE GFS AND ECMWF INTO A SEMI FLAT ZONAL FLOW OR A VERY
SLIGHT WRN RIDGE ERN TROF PATTERN. ALL OF THESE MAINTAIN A
SUBTROPICAL AND TROPICAL RIDGE FROM WRN AFRICA TO THE SWRN CONUS.


Source: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html

[OuterBanker]

Here is a a news page from our new site (in progress). The address is at bottom of page, phone number, etc.

http://www.jewelrybygail.com/ViewArticle.asp?NewsID=9

[Jim Cantore]

For those with slower connections, where is what the GFS is showing on that run.

Not a good track. That will cause exstensive Beach erosion in my area, And from the outer banks to new england.

Thats nearly 2 weeks away though.

[Meso]

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/SDDI/cgi/listImages.pl?m=bnw

Under sector 5 there is animation of the latest wave exiting africa at present,Think it's the one that the models are picking up on?

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

That is a very bad track indeed. I could receive a direct hit myself. I doubt (and hope), it will verify, way to early yet.

[Weatherfreak14]

I think that track is a little off. I think the recurve if it does in the future will be more south and closer to the SE coast.

[cycloneye]

The area of convection you see exciting Africa is what GFS develops down the road.It doesn't look too impressive right now.

[Brent]

I'll believe it when I see it.

[Weatherfreak14]

..