CMC Showing a hit on N.O.

[caneman]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

132 hours out with a system that is not even here yet? In most likely will never form...I would wait in watch for more models to join to support even the systems development. Its way to early to say track.

[beachbum_al]

We are talking a week. I agree that it way to early to get alarm and this is only one model.

[jasons2k]

Doesn't look right to me at all. That's a strange path for a NOLA hit as well, esp. in August. CMC has been forming phantom systems all season.

[duris]

If we're a target, let it be now. Not because of the condition of the city but because what are the odds of models being correct this far out?

[Sanibel]

Can't get it to load right.

[Meso]

The new NAM runs are also showing a system heading into the gulf http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084s.gif

[Extremeweatherguy]

The NAM also shows a feature in the western Caribbean in 84 hrs:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif

This is probably the same system the CMC is seeing.

BTW: JB also mentioned a Caribbean to Gulf coast threat looking possible next week in his afternoon discussion.

UPDATE: I was one minute late! Meso beat me to it!

[jasons2k]

I think y'all really should look at some models other than the CMC and the NAM. I can't count the number of phantom systems they've both developed this year. Just some advice.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I think y'all really should look at some models other than the CMC and the NAM. I can't count the number of phantom systems they've both developed this year. Just some advice.

when was the last time the NAM showed a system down to 1000mbs though? The only other one this season I can remember is Alberto (which the NAM saw over 3 days out from when it developed).

[tailgater]

Doesn't look right to me at all. That's a strange path for a NOLA hit as well, esp. in August. CMC has been forming phantom systems all season.

I'm not sure why you think that's a strange path, but on a side note we are probably the safest ones if it should come to fruition, this for out, what are chances.

[jasons2k]

Doesn't look right to me at all. That's a strange path for a NOLA hit as well, esp. in August. CMC has been forming phantom systems all season.

I'm not sure why you think that's a strange path, but on a side note we are probably the safest ones if it should come to fruition, this for out, what are chances.

B/C it brings the system from South America almost due north to NOLA. Very unlikely in August. Maybe in late September or early October, but it would be very unusual for a system to track that vertically with the easterlies still firmly in place.

[Derek Ortt]

CMC shows a TD or maybe a weak TS hitting next week. Shouldn't be too much of a problem, unless it stalls and brings flooding rainfall

[jasons2k]

I think y'all really should look at some models other than the CMC and the NAM. I can't count the number of phantom systems they've both developed this year. Just some advice.

when was the last time the NAM showed a system down to 1000mbs though? The only other one this season I can remember is Alberto (which the NAM saw over 3 days out from when it developed).

I think it's dropping it that much b/c it closes it off so quickly (more time to deepen in the run).

[wxmann_91]

I thought this was a thread bumped up from Aug. 17, 2005.

I don't think this will verify, if not intensity, then location.

[stormcrow]

The first true test of the NOLA levee repairs will be when any type of TS or Hurr. hits the area. While I was in NOLA last winter an engineer from the expained the science of building levees. He said you build the levee and wait to something to hit, then you find out if you were right. At this time if I was in NOLA I would evacuate for any named system.

[tailgater]

Doesn't look right to me at all. That's a strange path for a NOLA hit as well, esp. in August. CMC has been forming phantom systems all season.

I'm not sure why you think that's a strange path, but on a side note we are probably the safest ones if it should come to fruition, this for out, what are chances.

B/C it brings the system from South America almost due north to NOLA. Very unlikely in August. Maybe in late September or early October, but it would be very unusual for a system to track that vertically with the easterlies still firmly in place.

Camille for one, and it shows it moving pretty much NW it's entire track In Late Sep. and Oct almost everything is a recurve.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Considering it is almost late August, I think any "possibility" of development shown by the models should be taken seriously. Since they have been so bearish this season, a stronger storm like the one they are now showing should not be writen off too quickly. We are about to enter the most active tropical period of the year.


As for that possible northward turn, I keep hearing about a CF that is suppose to be in the area next week. May be that is what the models are seeing that would give it more of a nudge toward the upper TX coast, LA, or the MS/AL/FL area.

[Extremeweatherguy]

CMC shows a TD or maybe a weak TS hitting next week. Shouldn't be too much of a problem, unless it stalls and brings flooding rainfall

or unless something intensifies beyond what the CMC is showing.

[duris]

The first true test of the NOLA levee repairs will be when any type of TS or Hurr. hits the area. While I was in NOLA last winter an engineer from the expained the science of building levees. He said you build the levee and wait to something to hit, then you find out if you were right. At this time if I was in NOLA I would evacuate for any named system.

And that "science" probably doesn't take into account the ineptitude of the contractors, crooked politicos, etc. We will definitely leave for any named storm, not so much because we fear that our home will flood again but because the electrical infrastructure is so bad that we know power will be out quite a while. My electrician says that even before Katrina, New Orleans' power system was barely held together. Add to that the plethora of other problems, the levees, and a pregnant wife....