May I be on air at talkin tropics asking questions tonight??

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
willjnewton

May I be on air at talkin tropics asking questions tonight??

#1 Postby willjnewton » Thu Aug 17, 2006 4:32 pm

I understand that there is Already a threaD about the gfs shows the first hurricane this 2006 season, but NO one gave me a clear answer about the updated model run and there forecast models seemed OLD, so can someone post or make a picture of the new,,,OR THE POINT I AM TRYING TO SAY IS, does the latest gfs forecast model still indicates a major east coast storm for 2006 out in 384 hours or more out in or around labor day???and by the way may I join talkin tropics tonight???
0 likes   

User avatar
MCorder
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 42
Joined: Wed Aug 02, 2006 4:58 pm
Location: Kodiak Alaska
Contact:

#2 Postby MCorder » Thu Aug 17, 2006 4:36 pm

You could always go here... https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/PUBLIC/ and look at it your self...


Thanks
MCorder
http://www.mjcorder.com
0 likes   

willjnewton

#3 Postby willjnewton » Thu Aug 17, 2006 4:38 pm

but I mean 384 hours or more with the model runs NOT the 144 hour..
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 146178
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#4 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 17, 2006 4:41 pm

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... arib.shtml

Will,here is the link to the GFS at 384 hours.The next run to come out is the 18z one which is starting slowly to do so now.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

willjnewton

#5 Postby willjnewton » Thu Aug 17, 2006 4:41 pm

and what I mean by that is does the gfs the latest forecast model run indicates a strong east coast storm thats updated it or did they dissapated ???please explain thanks
0 likes   

User avatar
wxmann_91
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8013
Age: 34
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2005 2:49 pm
Location: Southern California
Contact:

#6 Postby wxmann_91 » Thu Aug 17, 2006 4:42 pm

GFS still develops a formidable east coast storm, from 12Z runs. Don't know what the future will hold, though, sorry.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 146178
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#7 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 17, 2006 4:43 pm

willjnewton wrote:and what I mean by that is does the gfs the latest forecast model run indicates a strong east coast storm thats updated it or did they dissapated ???please explain thanks


As I said,the 18z run is now starting to come out slowly so it will take a while before the full 384 hours are complete.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
SouthFloridawx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8346
Age: 46
Joined: Tue Jul 26, 2005 1:16 am
Location: Sarasota, FL
Contact:

#8 Postby SouthFloridawx » Thu Aug 17, 2006 4:44 pm

Image
0 likes   

willjnewton

#9 Postby willjnewton » Thu Aug 17, 2006 4:45 pm

okay thanks let me know when its completed
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 146178
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#10 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 17, 2006 4:46 pm

willjnewton wrote:okay thanks let me know when its completed


You will know at the GFS thread where the run will be posted.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

tgenius
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1160
Joined: Mon May 15, 2006 5:31 pm
Location: Miami, FL

#11 Postby tgenius » Thu Aug 17, 2006 4:46 pm

SouthFloridawx wrote:Image


Wow.. that sure looks to of shifted south a bit from the previous runs (Gatorcane mentioned this in another thread) It's still too far out if you ask me
0 likes   

User avatar
wxmann_91
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8013
Age: 34
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2005 2:49 pm
Location: Southern California
Contact:

#12 Postby wxmann_91 » Thu Aug 17, 2006 4:46 pm

willjnewton wrote:okay thanks let me know when its completed

We will Will. See, three people answered your last question at the same time. :)
0 likes   

willjnewton

#13 Postby willjnewton » Thu Aug 17, 2006 4:47 pm

but I know that the gfs is farther south but will that storm eventually ride north along the coast???
0 likes   

User avatar
Hybridstorm_November2001
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2813
Joined: Sat Aug 21, 2004 2:50 pm
Location: SW New Brunswick, Canada
Contact:

#14 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Thu Aug 17, 2006 4:49 pm

That is one of the reason I love the weather. It shows the power of nature, and how much we have yet to learn about it. As the old song goes:

"Say sa ra sa ra. Whatever will be will be. The future is not our to see. Say sa ra sa ra."
0 likes   

willjnewton

#15 Postby willjnewton » Thu Aug 17, 2006 4:51 pm

whats after 384 hours of that gfs forecast model, like does as OF now of when its updated of 2006 does it still indicated a formidable east coast storm???
0 likes   

tgenius
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1160
Joined: Mon May 15, 2006 5:31 pm
Location: Miami, FL

#16 Postby tgenius » Thu Aug 17, 2006 4:54 pm

Will..the 384 is not reliable for forecasting, in reality, anything over 72 isn't all that confident.. its not to say it may not pan out..but its like throwing darts blind.. could you hit a bullseye? Probably just very highly unlikely.
0 likes   

willjnewton

#17 Postby willjnewton » Thu Aug 17, 2006 4:57 pm

but can someone show me a gfs forecast model graphic after 384 hours well I mean SLIGHTLY after that???
0 likes   

User avatar
Meso
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1609
Age: 38
Joined: Mon Aug 09, 2004 12:14 pm
Location: South Africa
Contact:

#18 Postby Meso » Thu Aug 17, 2006 4:57 pm

Don't take this offensively willjnewton.. but it seems as if you want a 100% clear explaination and date of every system... I'm not trying to be mean or anything.. But don't put so much importance on the EXACT details of the models...And everything you ask is normally answerd before you ask it... And keep watching the thread talking about the system you are interested in.. Models change every few hours and things will go back and forth and change with every run.. Like I said,it's pretty much all said on the thread discussing the system.. I`m pretty sure everyone will tell their thoughts about where and when each system does what :)
0 likes   

User avatar
vacanechaser
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1461
Joined: Wed Dec 03, 2003 9:34 pm
Location: Portsmouth, Va
Contact:

#19 Postby vacanechaser » Thu Aug 17, 2006 5:03 pm

william, there is no frame after the 384... 384 is it with each run.... you have to wait for the model run to be complete.... that is going to be awhile... so be patien
0 likes   
Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

willjnewton

#20 Postby willjnewton » Thu Aug 17, 2006 5:05 pm

okay thanks everyone for your gifted responses
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: 7cardinal, AnnularCane, duilaslol and 53 guests