May I be on air at talkin tropics asking questions tonight??

[P.K.]

but can someone show me a gfs forecast model graphic after 384 hours well I mean SLIGHTLY after that???

It doesn't go beyond 384 hours. Anyway looking at it this far out isn't really going to show anything. When the model is first initialised from soundings, satellite data, and all the other observations there are going to be errors there. Now as time goes on these errors will get greater due to the chaotic nature of the atmopshere. Beyond a certain point the model data is really much use.

Now the GFS and other global models aren't too bad for a few days. It has been shown that medium range models are better from say 5 days out, with in that case the ECMWF being shown to be better than the Met Office global model. No references for it though as it was a presentation done at the University of Reading by someone from the ECMWF (Also in Reading).

[WxGuy1]

Will..the 384 is not reliable for forecasting, in reality, anything over 72 isn't all that confident.. its not to say it may not pan out..but its like throwing darts blind.. could you hit a bullseye? Probably just very highly unlikely.

Yup. I've NEVER take ANY 384hr forecast seriously, and I'd be extremely hesitant about even taking a 48hr forecast of a currently undeveloped storm seriously. Humans have a hard enough time forecasting cyclone initiation, and models aren't any better most of the time.

[vacanechaser]

Will..the 384 is not reliable for forecasting, in reality, anything over 72 isn't all that confident.. its not to say it may not pan out..but its like throwing darts blind.. could you hit a bullseye? Probably just very highly unlikely.

Yup. I've NEVER take ANY 384hr forecast seriously, and I'd be extremely hesitant about even taking a 48hr forecast of a currently undeveloped storm seriously. Humans have a hard enough time forecasting cyclone initiation, and models aren't any better most of the time.

very true... however, it NAILED isibel this far out on the first few runs... believe me, the gfs is dog meat most times... but, it gives us something to watch and it has been consistant now for several runs...


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[tgenius]

Will..the 384 is not reliable for forecasting, in reality, anything over 72 isn't all that confident.. its not to say it may not pan out..but its like throwing darts blind.. could you hit a bullseye? Probably just very highly unlikely.

Yup. I've NEVER take ANY 384hr forecast seriously, and I'd be extremely hesitant about even taking a 48hr forecast of a currently undeveloped storm seriously. Humans have a hard enough time forecasting cyclone initiation, and models aren't any better most of the time.

very true... however, it NAILED isibel this far out on the first few runs... believe me, the gfs is dog meat most times... but, it gives us something to watch and it has been consistant now for several runs...


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

It's like my darts analogy... could you hit bullseye blind? Absolutely,is it very likely? No (since GFS is almost always wrong this far out)

[vacanechaser]

ohh dont get wrong here.... i know it may be full of it.... i know that.. trust me... but, it is consistant... you have to say that... there are times the gfs shows something one run and gone the next.... its something to watch.. thats all...


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[senorpepr]

While I understand your concern, willjnewton, please be aware that the 384 hour point of the GFS (or really any time after 72 hours) is like trying to guess what numbers a pair of 50-sided dice will produce. It's very inaccurate.

[Stephanie]

will - that's part of the fun when watching the models coming out. They can change slightly or even drop the storm altogether, for reasons we will always debate about. There's so many things that go on in the atmosphere that can affect our weather. The GFS may pick something up this far out but it may only be a rainstorm or go out to sea by the time we actually see it.

[Agua]

Why don't you call Mike Watkins on Talkin' Tropics tonight, several times if you feel like it, and ask all questions which come to your mind?

[hiflyer]

may I join talkin tropics tonight???

http://radio.nhcwx.com/modules.php?name ... page&pid=7

The instructions for TeamSpeak which downloads the application to join the virtual studio. You need a fairly good PC with a microphone and a broadband connection. Listening for the first few times is recommended to get the idea on how the show is formatted and managed.