CMC Showing a hit on N.O.

[caneman]

I think y'all really should look at some models other than the CMC and the NAM. I can't count the number of phantom systems they've both developed this year. Just some advice.

Tell me which one you would count on then. This is very possible. We'll see if we get consistency

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2006081712&field=850mb+Vorticity&hour=Animation

All I have to say is:

After what happened last year, I pray to God this doesn't verify. I honestly do.

[jasons2k]

Doesn't look right to me at all. That's a strange path for a NOLA hit as well, esp. in August. CMC has been forming phantom systems all season.

I'm not sure why you think that's a strange path, but on a side note we are probably the safest ones if it should come to fruition, this for out, what are chances.

B/C it brings the system from South America almost due north to NOLA. Very unlikely in August. Maybe in late September or early October, but it would be very unusual for a system to track that vertically with the easterlies still firmly in place.

Camille for one, and it shows it moving pretty much NW it's entire track In Late Sep. and Oct almost everything is a recurve.

Camille formed near 20N. The only system I can find that formed south of 15N in the Carribean and moved north to NOLA was in Sep-October 1915.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Doesn't look right to me at all. That's a strange path for a NOLA hit as well, esp. in August. CMC has been forming phantom systems all season.

I'm not sure why you think that's a strange path, but on a side note we are probably the safest ones if it should come to fruition, this for out, what are chances.

B/C it brings the system from South America almost due north to NOLA. Very unlikely in August. Maybe in late September or early October, but it would be very unusual for a system to track that vertically with the easterlies still firmly in place.

Camille for one, and it shows it moving pretty much NW it's entire track In Late Sep. and Oct almost everything is a recurve.

Camille formed near 20N. The only system I can find that formed south of 15N in the Carribean and moved north to NOLA was in Sep-October 1915.

The CMC doesn't really look to "develop" this into a real system until it reaches 18-21N.

[Stratosphere747]

Can't wait until the operational 2160 hr runs start next year. Will be much easier to plan out the hurricane season.....

[jasons2k]

I think y'all really should look at some models other than the CMC and the NAM. I can't count the number of phantom systems they've both developed this year. Just some advice.

Tell me which one you would count on then. This is very possible. We'll see if we get consistency

The CMC closes the system off in 12-18 hours. Sorry, I don't think that's possible. If the GFS and NOGAPS jump on board as well, then I'll pay attention, but not a single run of the NAM and CMC.

I want to clarify something, I'm not saying something can't or won't develop. I just think the models are latching onto this too quickly, and these two models have a history of making something out of nothing, that's all.

[jasons2k]

FWIW I just saw a post by WxGuy1 - a Pro Met. - in another thread that is VERY pertinent to this discussion:

"Yup. I've NEVER take ANY 384hr forecast seriously, and I'd be extremely hesitant about even taking a 48hr forecast of a currently undeveloped storm seriously. Humans have a hard enough time forecasting cyclone initiation, and models aren't any better most of the time." - WxGuy1

[tailgater]

Doesn't look right to me at all. That's a strange path for a NOLA hit as well, esp. in August. CMC has been forming phantom systems all season.

I'm not sure why you think that's a strange path, but on a side note we are probably the safest ones if it should come to fruition, this for out, what are chances.

B/C it brings the system from South America almost due north to NOLA. Very unlikely in August. Maybe in late September or early October, but it would be very unusual for a system to track that vertically with the easterlies still firmly in place.

Camille for one, and it shows it moving pretty much NW it's entire track In Late Sep. and Oct almost everything is a recurve.

Camille formed near 20N. The only system I can find that formed south of 15N in the Carribean and moved north to NOLA was in Sep-October 1915.

The CMC doesn't really look to "develop" this into a real system until it reaches 18-21N.

This shows surface reflection better, and I agree jschlitz nothing to worry about and I don't think anyone is.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/cmc/20 ... 2/slp0.png

[ronjon]

The NAM I agree is one of the most agressive cyclone developers amongst the pack of models. CMC comes in a close second. So I'm very skeptical. With that said, the latest 18Z GFS does show a low pressure system in the western caribbean. It appears to lose it as the system moves up into the GOM but I think there may be something here to eyeball over the next week. "Tis the season. Oh, and weren't the CMC and NAM the first models to develop Alberto. And isn't the NAM doing the best job on the low pressure off the coast of SC. Just some random thoughts.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Cyclenall]

Can't wait until the operational 2160 hr runs start next year. Will be much easier to plan out the hurricane season.....

I never heard about operational models that go out 2160 hr that will be starting next year. More information on this would be great.

[Scorpion]

Can't wait until the operational 2160 hr runs start next year. Will be much easier to plan out the hurricane season.....

I never heard about operational models that go out 2160 hr that will be starting next year. More information on this would be great.

[tailgater]

Can't wait until the operational 2160 hr runs start next year. Will be much easier to plan out the hurricane season.....

I never heard about operational models that go out 2160 hr that will be starting next year. More information on this would be great.

Yeah that would give us 3 mths. to evacuate.

[duris]

No way! I'd have to buy a Uhaul truck or 18 wheeler for everything my wife would want to take with 3 mos. warning.

[wxmann_91]

The NAM I agree is one of the most agressive cyclone developers amongst the pack of models. CMC comes in a close second. So I'm very skeptical. With that said, the latest 18Z GFS does show a low pressure system in the western caribbean. It appears to lose it as the system moves up into the GOM but I think there may be something here to eyeball over the next week. "Tis the season. Oh, and weren't the CMC and NAM the first models to develop Alberto. And isn't the NAM doing the best job on the low pressure off the coast of SC. Just some random thoughts.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Even a broken clock is right twice a day. Besides, realize that the NAM was developing Alberto into a major in the Caribbean.

Not unless I see model agreement that last several runs, will I be interested. That's usually my motto. Even so, the big guns are usually the Euro and the GFS, and I tend to trust them more than other models. Usually, in terms of tropical development, CMC and NAM are the worst since they go all gung-ho over everything. At most, IMO, this will be a tropical low or a depression, if it even develops.

[Cyclenall]

Even a broken clock is right twice a day.

Best line I have heard today!!

[Steve]

[Extremeweatherguy]

The NAM I agree is one of the most agressive cyclone developers amongst the pack of models. CMC comes in a close second. So I'm very skeptical. With that said, the latest 18Z GFS does show a low pressure system in the western caribbean. It appears to lose it as the system moves up into the GOM but I think there may be something here to eyeball over the next week. "Tis the season. Oh, and weren't the CMC and NAM the first models to develop Alberto. And isn't the NAM doing the best job on the low pressure off the coast of SC. Just some random thoughts.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Even a broken clock is right twice a day. Besides, realize that the NAM was developing Alberto into a major in the Caribbean.

Not unless I see model agreement that last several runs, will I be interested. That's usually my motto. Even so, the big guns are usually the Euro and the GFS, and I tend to trust them more than other models. Usually, in terms of tropical development, CMC and NAM are the worst since they go all gung-ho over everything. At most, IMO, this will be a tropical low or a depression, if it even develops.

The NAM never forecasted Alberto to be a major in the Caribbean. The strongest I saw it forecast was about 996mb.

[ROCK]

Maybe we should lock this thread and continue in the GOM thread.......seems like we got the same discussion going on.....

[ronjon]

The NAM I agree is one of the most agressive cyclone developers amongst the pack of models. CMC comes in a close second. So I'm very skeptical. With that said, the latest 18Z GFS does show a low pressure system in the western caribbean. It appears to lose it as the system moves up into the GOM but I think there may be something here to eyeball over the next week. "Tis the season. Oh, and weren't the CMC and NAM the first models to develop Alberto. And isn't the NAM doing the best job on the low pressure off the coast of SC. Just some random thoughts.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Even a broken clock is right twice a day. Besides, realize that the NAM was developing Alberto into a major in the Caribbean.

Not unless I see model agreement that last several runs, will I be interested. That's usually my motto. Even so, the big guns are usually the Euro and the GFS, and I tend to trust them more than other models. Usually, in terms of tropical development, CMC and NAM are the worst since they go all gung-ho over everything. At most, IMO, this will be a tropical low or a depression, if it even develops.

Personally, I like the one that even a blind squirrel can find an acorn once in a while. Well, if the PRO METs think its worth watching (and even start a thread about it), then we all need to watch it.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 78#1421378

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

We will just have to wait intill more models show it deeloping...Its the model trend that is needed to watch. Also if a strong tropical storm weak hurricane was going to hit New orleans, with the levy's the way they are. Would it top it again?