Invest 93L,E of Florida,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

[Stormavoider]

From all the buoy reports it looks to be closed off, we have west winds off the NE coast of Florida and North winds off the upper GA and SC coasts with some 30kt winds. Looks like a TD too me.

I don't know what it is, but I just looked at a plot map that most models showed it tracking across N. or NW Florida.

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png

Is the ETAI model a good one? It seems to be following that track now.

[wxmann_91]

From all the buoy reports it looks to be closed off, we have west winds off the NE coast of Florida and North winds off the upper GA and SC coasts with some 30kt winds. Looks like a TD too me.

I don't know what it is, but I just looked at a plot map that most models showed it tracking across N. or NW Florida.

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png

Is the ETAI model a good one? It seems to be following that track now.

The only models I consider useful on that map in this situation are the CONU, GFDI, NGPI, and the AVNI.

[Stormavoider]

From all the buoy reports it looks to be closed off, we have west winds off the NE coast of Florida and North winds off the upper GA and SC coasts with some 30kt winds. Looks like a TD too me.

I don't know what it is, but I just looked at a plot map that most models showed it tracking across N. or NW Florida.

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png

Is the ETAI model a good one? It seems to be following that track now.

The only models I consider useful on that map in this situation are the CONU, GFDI, NGPI, and the AVNI.

It needs to take a hard turn to the west if those are going to hold true.

[Stormavoider]

North @ 29kts g 31 1012mb

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=TYBG1

[Lifesgud2]

Just another one of the many duds 2006 season has to offer. Shows over. Anyways, what are your Christmas plans this year?

LOL...Lets go Snow Skiing!!!!!!!!

This season is over kiddo...Maybe just maybe there will be 2 03 hurricanes..Personally mother nature is giving us a break this year. We need it.

[skysummit]

Just another one of the many duds 2006 season has to offer. Shows over. Anyways, what are your Christmas plans this year?

LOL...Lets go Snow Skiing!!!!!!!!

This season is over kiddo...Maybe just maybe there will be 2 03 hurricanes..Personally mother nature is giving us a break this year. We need it.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Just another one of the many duds 2006 season has to offer. Shows over. Anyways, what are your Christmas plans this year?

LOL...Lets go Snow Skiing!!!!!!!!

This season is over kiddo...Maybe just maybe there will be 2 03 hurricanes..Personally mother nature is giving us a break this year. We need it.

Mother Nature don't Cut Breaks...She was here 1st..

[Stormavoider]

It's getting squashed like a bug.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-ir2.html

[Extremeweatherguy]

JB is calling this a depression and thinks it has been one since yesterday. He said a navy tower off the GA/SC coast has seen 30mph sustained winds and a 1012mb pressure (lower than recon found). He doesn't think this will strengthen, but he thinks the NHC may have missed this one (especially since 3 vortex messages were sent from Recon flying through this system yesterday).

[ROCK]

JB is calling this a depression and thinks it has been one since yesterday. He said a navy tower off the GA/SC coast has seen 30mph sustained winds and a 1012mb pressure (lower than recon found). He doesn't think this will strengthen, but he thinks the NHC may have missed this one (especially since 3 vortex messages were sent from Recon flying through this system yesterday).

I agree. Sheared to death now but earlier today it look to have stacked some even though the convection was displaced to the SW. But it doesnt matter now just got decapitated ala Chris.

[StormWarning1]

JB is calling this a depression and thinks it has been one since yesterday. He said a navy tower off the GA/SC coast has seen 30mph sustained winds and a 1012mb pressure (lower than recon found). He doesn't think this will strengthen, but he thinks the NHC may have missed this one (especially since 3 vortex messages were sent from Recon flying through this system yesterday).

They did not miss it. I am glad they did not call it a depression. I think they would have done so if they thought the conditions were a little better for intensification, but, this is not going to amount to anything.

Do not know what JB's gripe is all about. Perhaps he is getting a little concerned about his lofty forecast for activity this season.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Personally I don't understand why this was not upgrade. I agree with JB, why because I'm that way I like to see every depression upgraded.

[Epsilon_Fan]

Is it just me, but I'd hate to see names wasted on "glorified" depressions or sorry looking systems like this. I'm glad to see Debby isn't here yet!

[Extremeweatherguy]

JB is calling this a depression and thinks it has been one since yesterday. He said a navy tower off the GA/SC coast has seen 30mph sustained winds and a 1012mb pressure (lower than recon found). He doesn't think this will strengthen, but he thinks the NHC may have missed this one (especially since 3 vortex messages were sent from Recon flying through this system yesterday).

They did not miss it. I am glad they did not call it a depression. I think they would have done so if they thought the conditions were a little better for intensification, but, this is not going to amount to anything.

Do not know what JB's gripe is all about. Perhaps he is getting a little concerned about his lofty forecast for activity this season.

well with 30mph sustained winds and a pressure of 1012mb reported; I don't see how this could not have been a depression.

[ronjon]

Is it just me, but I'd hate to see names wasted on "glorified" depressions or sorry looking systems like this. I'm glad to see Debby isn't here yet!

I agree with JB and others that it's a depression and its been that way over the last 24 hrs. The NHC for some reason either didn't want to alarm people or thought that shear would have destroyed it earlier. Maybe they wanted to save money on recon flights? Who knows. By the way, depressions aren't given names, just numbers. This will probably never be Debby, just plain ole number 4 (if NHC would just say it).

[StormsAhead]

They did not miss it. I am glad they did not call it a depression. I think they would have done so if they thought the conditions were a little better for intensification, but, this is not going to amount to anything.

Do not know what JB's gripe is all about. Perhaps he is getting a little concerned about his lofty forecast for activity this season.

Actually, he expects (and has always expected) as few or fewer storms than NOAA has out now. He doesn't make predictions on the overall numbers, because he feels that storms only matter to the public if they make landfall. However, he is forecasting an incredibly active season in terms of east coast landfalls, and so far I haven't seen anything that would make me doubt that. (BTW-he has been ripped apart for his forecast for landfalls every year, but for the last few years his landfall forecasts were UNDERdone).

What JB's "gripe" is about, to paraphrase, is that they have objective rules for declaring systems depressions, but they like to play games and make the public rely on their subjective classifications instead. If something that is a depression today would not be a depression tomorrow, IMO there's something wrong.

[cycloneye]

928
ABNT20 KNHC 180204
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT THU AUG 17 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AS WELL AS SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE
THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA IS BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED AND
HAS LIMITED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS DIMINISHED
CONSIDERABLY...AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME EVEN
MORE UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT ON FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF GUSTY WINDS COULD STILL AFFECT COASTAL
AREAS OF EXTREME SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...GEORGIA...AND
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS
SOUTHWESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/AVILA


NHC puts a fork on it.

[fci]

Personally I don't understand why this was not upgrade. I agree with JB, why because I'm that way I like to see every depression upgraded.

Why is an upgrade to a TD so important if it is going to be for several hours or only a few???

Is there some "kick" in it that we actually gota TD #4.

I just don't get it.
A non-issue
And y'all are getting worked up and agitated about it.

You need a real storm, hopefully a "fish" to give you something to get excited about.

I think after last season many are going through a withdrawal in 2006!

[SouthFloridawx]

instead of having to issue advisories and starting up the engines for a storm that is not going to be around very long. I agree FCI...

An upgrade can be issued after the season is over providing they have the data to back it up.

[StrongWind]

Is it just me, but I'd hate to see names wasted on "glorified" depressions or sorry looking systems like this. I'm glad to see Debby isn't here yet!

To be or not to be. Sounds like a battle between the "purists" and the "counters."


edit: p.s. - I'll hold out for a real Debbycane.