Possible GoM Tropical Threat next Tuesday/Wednesday?

[wxman57]

I don't start very many threads about potential development, but I don't see a thread about a possible Gulf threat early next week so I'll start one. The GFS and ECMWF have come in line with the Canadian and NOGAPS in bringing a disturbance from north of Panama northward toward the northern Yucatan by late in the weekend or early next week then into the south-central Gulf by Tuesday. The culprit appears to be a low-latitude tropical wave now mostly over South America along 65W.

It's a common devleopment pattern, and conditions do look favorable for such development to occur. Mid-level steering currents now show a strong ridge over northeast Texas. That ridge is forecast to hold until early next week then back slowly to the west, leaving an open channel between another ridge over the southeast U.S.. This channel would lead toward the area between southeast Louisiana and the western Florida Panhandle.

Upper-level winds appear very favorable for development (at least according to the GFS). We know that the Gulf is very warm, so the eventual intensity may only be limited by time over the water once it develops (if it develops).

Such a track would be very bad for the poor people who were hit by Katrina last year - not far from the same date that this system may become a threat.

Stay tuned. Let's see what the 00Z and 06Z models show....

[Stormcenter]

No offense but I hope you are 100% wrong.

[skysummit]

Wow wxman57....when you start a thread like that, you make my eyebrows bounce a little.

[ROCK]

Yeah, its being discussed in the NO thread. I will be watching this closely as will all Gomer's...

[Extremeweatherguy]

I agree with this synopsis, however I think there needs to be a greater area of potential risk. I think everyone from Freeport to Tampa needs to be on guard. The exact placement of that ridge next week will be crucial. I wouldn't want anyone outside of that swath you gave to let their guards down before the system had actually formed.

I'll be watching this closely.

[ROCK]

Wow wxman57....when you start a thread like that, you make my eyebrows bounce a little.

no joke....made the ole heart ramp up a little until he said NGOM....

[StormWarning1]

I don't start very many threads about potential development, but I don't see one on the possible Gulf threat early next week.

Well, do you mean 'do see one'.

[Extremeweatherguy]

JB also said he would chime in on this later tonight (as of his morning post). It will be interesting to see what he is thinking.

[HollynLA]

Wow wxman57....when you start a thread like that, you make my eyebrows bounce a little.

Yeah, I was thinking the same thing. When he says this, I'm definitely listening.

[skysummit]

JB also said he would chime in on this later tonight (as of his morning post). It will be interesting to see what he is thinking.

Let us know what he thinks!

[SouthFloridawx]

I don't start very many threads about potential development, but I don't see one on the possible Gulf threat early next week.

Well, do you mean 'do see one'.

He's probably pretty used to saying, "Don't, Won't and can't" LOL

[skysummit]

I don't start very many threads about potential development, but I don't see one on the possible Gulf threat early next week.

Well, do you mean 'do see one'.

He's probably pretty used to saying, "Don't, Won't and can't" LOL

He's talking about he doesn't see a thread started on the gulf next week.

[ROCK]

I don't start very many threads about potential development, but I don't see one on the possible Gulf threat early next week.

Well, do you mean 'do see one'.

I think you know what he means......

[WindRunner]

I don't start very many threads about potential development

Yeah, so when I saw your name on this thread, first thing I did was run to the model pages, and sure enough, there it was. Hard to see on the SLP output, but definately there with the 850 vort maps. It would be a relatively weak/shallow system, and would have to contend with the Central American mountains as it was trying to get going, but once in the Gulf it seems to slow down and spin up. Definately something to watch for the Gulf.

[Extremeweatherguy]

EDIT: sorry. Just re-read JB's post and he said that he would actually discuss this more tomorrow, not tonight. Stay tuned though..

[cheezyWXguy]

I get it...youre starting one because theres not one out there yet...im smart

[wxman57]

I don't start very many threads about potential development, but I don't see one on the possible Gulf threat early next week.

Well, do you mean 'do see one'.

Yeah, sorry, that sentence didn't make sense. Must have stopped/started in the middle of a train of thought.

[wxman57]

I don't start very many threads about potential development, but I don't see one on the possible Gulf threat early next week.

Well, do you mean 'do see one'.

He's probably pretty used to saying, "Don't, Won't and can't" LOL

He's talking about he doesn't see a thread started on the gulf next week.

Yeah! That's what I was thinking. I don't see a thread on it. Of course, the one about the CMC model developing something popped to the top of the forum list right after I posted.

Ok, back on topic. And quit confusing me, it's been a long day...

[Furious George]

I think the NAM wants to play also.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _084.shtml

[Stratosphere747]

Possibly the worst analogy to hear for GOM residents and specifically Texas residents is something forming north of Panama....

Sure 57 knows the year as he was about four years old...