Possible GoM Tropical Threat next Tuesday/Wednesday?

[ROCK]

Possibly the worst analogy to hear for GOM residents and specifically Texas residents is something forming north of Panama....

Sure 57 knows the year as he was about four years old...

Carla.....do I win anything??

[Bluefrog]

crap .... *$%$#!#%&*^$&*

[Scorpion]

Wow... got my attention really fast when I saw you harping on development.

[Stormcenter]

Too far out in time to worry too much but if something is out there by Saturday then I would be concerned.

[SouthFloridawx]

CMC
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

GFS shows it too
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

[TheShrimper]

Pretty bold statement wxman57 with the intrusions of troughs already so prevelant into the SE. For that path to transpire, would be unprescedented. Way to early to call as far as a landfall prediction. Any deviation in the models brings many more area's into play. Let's wait and see what transpires over the weekend, if anything.

[KatDaddy]

Omnious post tonight WXMan57. You are not one to fly off the handle and your post this evening is taken seriously. Many posters do not realize the heart of the season is upon us after last year. Many storms can be spawned from this point onward. Bottom line we should all be prepared. I truely hope the N GOM is spared again. I cannot even imagine another major hurricane threatening the Gulf Coast.

I will be watching carefully.

EWG I would be interested on Joe B's take

[Stormcenter]

Pretty bold statement wxman57 with the intrusions of troughs already so prevelant into the SE. For that path to transpire, would be unprescedented. Way to early to call as far as a landfall prediction. Any deviation in the models brings many more area's into play. Let's wait and see what transpires over the weekend, if anything.

I would tend to agree with your post.

[Scorpion]

Pretty bold statement wxman57 with the intrusions of troughs already so prevelant into the SE. For that path to transpire, would be unprescedented. Way to early to call as far as a landfall prediction. Any deviation in the models brings many more area's into play. Let's wait and see what transpires over the weekend, if anything.

It's mid-August. Texas sounds like fair-game to me.

[wxman57]

Possibly the worst analogy to hear for GOM residents and specifically Texas residents is something forming north of Panama....

Sure 57 knows the year as he was about four years old...

In this case, there is good agreement in a ridge over western Texas and another across the southeast U.S. That leaves a channel toward the central Gulf coast. An alternate scenario might be a more western track into southern Mexico if the ridge axis remains farther to the east.

[Stratosphere747]

Possibly the worst analogy to hear for GOM residents and specifically Texas residents is something forming north of Panama....

Sure 57 knows the year as he was about four years old...

In this case, there is good agreement in a ridge over western Texas and another across the southeast U.S. That leaves a channel toward the central Gulf coast. An alternate scenario might be a more western track into southern Mexico if the ridge axis remains farther to the east.

Understandable....

Just the mention of "north of Panama" sent a few chills.

[fci]

I just want to chime in to say I appreciate 57 stepping up and sharing observations with us on something that "could" happen.

It may not come to fruition but the "heads up" is appreciated.

Particularly because it does not include South Florida ( I am really selfish- I must admit)

Seriously, thanks for the info and if this does not happen all you naysayers out there better not be dishing crow towards 57 or we may not get the next one on the forum!!

[wxman57]

Pretty bold statement wxman57 with the intrusions of troughs already so prevelant into the SE. For that path to transpire, would be unprescedented. Way to early to call as far as a landfall prediction. Any deviation in the models brings many more area's into play. Let's wait and see what transpires over the weekend, if anything.

Well, nothing is certain, to be sure. But this may be a short-fused situation. Waiting until Monday might mean about 48 hours before landfall of a potential hurricane. Those along the central Gulf Coast need to pay close attention over the next 24-48 hours. Development could occur by Sunday with landfall as early as Wednesday. Preparations may have to be made about the time development occurs, or even before.

[HollynLA]

Development could occur by Sunday with landfall as early as Wednesday. Preparations may have to be made about the time development occurs, or even before.

Who are you and what have you done with wxman57?

I have to tell you that reading those words from you really gives me chills.

[skysummit]

Pretty bold statement wxman57 with the intrusions of troughs already so prevelant into the SE. For that path to transpire, would be unprescedented. Way to early to call as far as a landfall prediction. Any deviation in the models brings many more area's into play. Let's wait and see what transpires over the weekend, if anything.

Well, nothing is certain, to be sure. But this may be a short-fused situation. Waiting until Monday might mean about 48 hours before landfall of a potential hurricane. Those along the central Gulf Coast need to pay close attention over the next 24-48 hours. Development could occur by Sunday with landfall as early as Wednesday. Preparations may have to be made about the time development occurs, or even before.

Geez....is this the same wxman57? I'm really beginning to wonder!

[ronjon]

Possibly the worst analogy to hear for GOM residents and specifically Texas residents is something forming north of Panama....

Sure 57 knows the year as he was about four years old...

Here's Carla since you asked.

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at1961.asp

[Derek Ortt]

while I am not as bold and calling for development, this has occurred in the past. Seems like a Danny 1985 scenario

[Rainband]

Pretty bold statement wxman57 with the intrusions of troughs already so prevelant into the SE. For that path to transpire, would be unprescedented. Way to early to call as far as a landfall prediction. Any deviation in the models brings many more area's into play. Let's wait and see what transpires over the weekend, if anything.

Well, nothing is certain, to be sure. But this may be a short-fused situation. Waiting until Monday might mean about 48 hours before landfall of a potential hurricane. Those along the central Gulf Coast need to pay close attention over the next 24-48 hours. Development could occur by Sunday with landfall as early as Wednesday. Preparations may have to be made about the time development occurs, or even before.

Anyone in the GOM needs to watch if this develops. We all know how patterns change and yada yada. I just added this to keep everyone prepared. We all know know fickle and unpredictable ridges can be. I think Most experts would agree.

[Stratosphere747]

Possibly the worst analogy to hear for GOM residents and specifically Texas residents is something forming north of Panama....

Sure 57 knows the year as he was about four years old...

Here's Carla since you asked.

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at1961.asp

Besides the Indianola hurricanes, I've researched Carla like no other...

[Stormcenter]

Well if the NWS bureaus along the Gulf coast start chiming in with this possibility tomorrow morning then I will start to be a little more concerned.