Possible GoM Tropical Threat next Tuesday/Wednesday?

[miamicanes177]

guess your talking about the system south of the yucatan.
00Z NAM 84 hours.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif

[Extremeweatherguy]

JB seems very excited about this one, and even mentioned Hurricane Bret in his post. However, he said we will still have to wait until tomorrow for his full idea of what he expects.

[wxman57]

20-30kts of shear in the caribbean right now. Hard to get too excited about development with those conditions.

That is what I think will ultimately spare us from any severe hurricanes in the GOM this season.

Don't get too comfy, the season is about to start. Shear is dropping.

[Extremeweatherguy]

So I guess Texas really isnt too involved in this? Because of the High that is supposed to move in... I would just like some rain... thats all...

Well the high over us now is actually expected to move west as another high sits over the SE. This should allow an opening (or path) for this system into the northern Gulf coast. HOWEVER, no westward movement of the ridge would send this storm into Mexico, and more westward movement would make that opening shift westward toward TX/SW LA (meaning a more likely hit in this area). There are really too many variables right now. We will have to wait for something to form to know for sure.

Oh yeah...

another scary thing for TX/SW LA would be if this moved north toward the opening only to have the ridge rebuild north of it. If this happened, the storm would likely turn back west and we would be a target.

[Extremeweatherguy]

00Z NAM loop:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Another interesting thing to note is that the NAM also develops a 1008mb low just east of TX by this weekend and moves it ashore. Could we have two systems in the works?

[Rainband]

JB seems very excited about this one, and even mentioned Hurricane Bret in his post. However, he said we will still have to wait until tomorrow for his full idea of what he expects.

He is always excited Keep us posted on his thoughts.

[skysummit]

Well Bob Breck in NOLA is pretty much talking about a very inactive season. Too many ULLs...too much cool water in the Atlantic, and too much wind shear. What a butt....he'll never learn.

[skysummit]

00Z NAM loop:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Another interesting thing to note is that the NAM also develops a 1008mb low just east of TX by this weekend and moves it ashore. Could we have two systems in the works?

I think that's the swirl that's in the gulf right now...that mid to upper level low. The NAM has been playing around with that for a couple of days now.

[SouthFloridawx]

20-30kts of shear in the caribbean right now. Hard to get too excited about development with those conditions.

That is what I think will ultimately spare us from any severe hurricanes in the GOM this season.

Don't get too comfy, the season is about to start. Shear is dropping.

You really can't put too much into what is current and what it will be next week.

What is going on now is not what it is going to be 3-4 days from now.

Bear in mind things change very quickly.

[Extremeweatherguy]

00Z NAM loop:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Another interesting thing to note is that the NAM also develops a 1008mb low just east of TX by this weekend and moves it ashore. Could we have two systems in the works?

I think that's the swirl that's in the gulf right now...that mid to upper level low. The NAM has been playing around with that for a couple of days now.

oh yeah that's right. I have gotten so involved in this new potential system that I had forgotten about that swirl.

[ROCK]

00Z NAM loop:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Another interesting thing to note is that the NAM also develops a 1008mb low just east of TX by this weekend and moves it ashore. Could we have two systems in the works?

I think that's the swirl that's in the gulf right now...that mid to upper level low. The NAM has been playing around with that for a couple of days now.

oh yeah that's right. I have gotten so involved in this new potential system that I had forgotten about that swirl.

focus EWG.....

[LaBreeze]

What about the strong high that is sitting over much of the South? Local met just stated that it is supposed to remain strong and in place - no movement - not allowing anything to make it's way to the Gulf Coast. I'm just wondering why is he saying this when most people on here are saying that the high will move. How certain is eveyone about something threatening the GOM this soon?

[Derek Ortt]

remember last season

It was also upper low season at this time, then the switch was flipped

On Aug 21 we had 9 named storms

from Aug 22 to Dec 31, we had 19 more, and we did not have 4 or 5 out there at the same time like in 1998 when the switch was flipped

when the switch is flipped, it may be flipped in a very noticible way

[Cyclenall]

Well Bob Breck in NOLA is pretty much talking about a very inactive season. Too many ULLs...too much cool water in the Atlantic, and too much wind shear. What a butt....he'll never learn.

Anyone who says there is too much cool water in the Atlantic has to be joking or I would think he is on something. Very inactive season?

[Javlin]

Well Bob Breck in NOLA is pretty much talking about a very inactive season. Too many ULLs...too much cool water in the Atlantic, and too much wind shear. What a butt....he'll never learn.

You can not throw out what Bob is saying entirely Sky.The ULLs and TUTTs have been control now for months.They are just making the loop.They start at Islands go NW across FL then sometmes SW and some back into the CARIB.Now having said that that takes out alot of the CV storms for FL and GOM.But the model WX57 has brought up is coming from a different direction so maybe a chance.Question is well there be an ULL in the GOM by then?

[Yankeegirl]

I just watched FOX news and their met said that Sunday is going to be the dryest day of the week, and pretty much rain for next week starting on Wednesday... So maybe she sees something too... just not saying anything yet... Tomorrow could get interesting...

[ROCK]

What about the strong high that is sitting over much of the South? Local met just stated that it is supposed to remain strong and in place - no movement - not allowing anything to make it's way to the Gulf Coast. I'm just wondering why is he saying this when most people on here are saying that the high will move. How certain is eveyone about something threatening the GOM this soon?

Not very certain....

[Stormcenter]

HPC sees nothing yet on Wednesday August 23rd 2006.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/9mh.gif

[Javlin]

remember last season

It was also upper low season at this time, then the switch was flipped

On Aug 21 we had 9 named storms

from Aug 22 to Dec 31, we had 19 more, and we did not have 4 or 5 out there at the same time like in 1998 when the switch was flipped

when the switch is flipped, it may be flipped in a very noticible way

I might not just have selective memory Derek but I really do not remember that many ULLs last year and definitly no TUTTs.This year reminds me of that year when Chantal went into TX in relation to the ULLs anyway.

[LaBreeze]

Well, now that you mentioned it Yankeegirl, another local met just showed that the chance for precip. will increase significantly late next week. He never mentioned why. Hmmm?