Possible GoM Tropical Threat next Tuesday/Wednesday?

[Yankeegirl]

Maybe they wanna get some supplies before everone else does?? lol...

[Derek Ortt]

the Atlantic was dominated by UL's last year.

I remember it clearly as we were worried that RAINEX would have problems because we missed Dennis and Emily since the field program did not start until August 15. All we had was upper lows and no significant tropical waves off of Africa (never had one after Irene)

Those fears were unfounded as it turned out

[Javlin]

Was it a different part of the ATL then Derek?Something was different for the early storm development last year.

[boca]

GFS 00 UTC shows a 1008 low north of Panama like wxman57 eluded too.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[SouthFloridawx]

GFS 00 UTC shows a 1008 low north of Panama like wxman57 eluded too.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Looking at the models over the past few months..

I have noticed that pressures are generally lower down there and often they depict low pressure.

[boca]

GFS 00 UTC shows a 1008 low north of Panama like wxman57 eluded too.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Looking at the models over the past few months..

I have noticed that pressures are generally lower down there and often they depict low pressure.

Convective feedback maybe?

[Derek Ortt]

the UL's were mainly in the first 2 thirds of August

July had nothing at all in terms of UL's; thus, we had 5 storms, 3 canes, and 2 majors that month

[SouthAlabamaWX]

Well Bob Breck in NOLA is pretty much talking about a very inactive season. Too many ULLs...too much cool water in the Atlantic, and too much wind shear. What a butt....he'll never learn.

Yeah. I figured that he would have learned his lesson after saying that Katrina would not affect New Orleans.

[Rainband]

Maybe they wanna get some supplies before everone else does?? lol...

should have done that June 1rst.

[Yankeegirl]

I did!! I have so many flashlights and batteries around here its not even funny... I can light the whole neighborhood!!

[mike815]

yea get ready. looks like a series situation if this pans out im scared for u.

[dizzyfish]

A snippet from our NWS AFD this morning...........


WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
322 AM EDT FRI AUG 18 2006


.LONG TERM (SUN NGT-THU)...00Z GFS RUN LOOKS REASONABLE THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH RIDGING HOLDING TOUGH OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
LATER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THE GFS DEVELOPS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND MOVES IT NORTH...THEN
NORTH-NORTHEAST TOWARD THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ON THURSDAY. WHILE A
TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE GULF AT THAT TIME CANNOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT...I PREFER TO WAIT UNTIL WE ACTUALLY HAVE A SYSTEM TO
TRACK BEFORE DEPICTING ONE IN THE GRIDS. WITH THAT SAID...I
ACCEPTED THE GFS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN BLENDED INTO THE
PREVIOUS GRIDS WHICH KEPT A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE STATE
THROUGH THURSDAY.

[Meso]

Hold a sec... putting this in wrong thread

[Air Force Met]

00Z NAM loop:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Another interesting thing to note is that the NAM also develops a 1008mb low just east of TX by this weekend and moves it ashore. Could we have two systems in the works?

I think that's the swirl that's in the gulf right now...that mid to upper level low. The NAM has been playing around with that for a couple of days now.

oh yeah that's right. I have gotten so involved in this new potential system that I had forgotten about that swirl.

focus EWG.....

He's too excited to focus...

[Nimbus]

Surface pressures last night dipped down around 1011 mid gulf. Apparantly the shear forecast is still unfavorable for home brew development. Judging from the comments a soggy 1000 MB+ system would be welcome in most gulf coastal locations.

The Panama scenario looks a little more dangerous should it develop. lots of warm water and running room to intensify. There has been persistent convection near 11N 77W overnight so they may start an invest if the morning visibles warrant it. Another 10/1 longshot?

[weatherwindow]

the situation is mentioned in the MWD from the TAFB....220AM 8/18...gfs and nogaps depicting a low forming this weekend in the sw carib and moving north along the cent american coast, then into the sgom tues....a little backup for 57....rich

[EmeraldCoast1]

Excerpt from the latest Pensacola / Mobile AFD:


... OF PARTICULAR INTEREST THIS MORNING IS THE GFS/GEM/ECMWF DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ON MONDAY THAT CROSSES THE YUCATAN THEN HEADS NORTHWARD. THE GEM IS FASTER WITH THE SYSTEM BUT THE THREE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THIS FEATURE MOVING TO THE EXTREME NORTHEAST GULF...WITH THE GFS/ECMWF AGREEING ON A THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. FOR NOW THIS BEARS WATCHING AND
WILL NEED TO MONITOR.

[Portastorm]

Pretty interesting stuff ... between this threat and the "It Could Happen Tomorrow" hurricane forecasted by the GFS for several runs for the East Coast by Labor Day, we seem primed for a model-run-watching weekend.

[duris]

New Orleans:

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE DEEP LAYTER HIGH WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS
A SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH.
INCREASED TROPICAL MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED COVERAGE
DIURNAL CONVECTION MORE TYPICAL OF AUGUST. THE GFS AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE ECMWF SHOW A TROPICAL LOW DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN SEA OR SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ON TUESDAY AND THEY
TRACK THIS SYSTEM GENERALLY NORTH THEN NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE FL
PANHANDLE. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE IF ANYTHING GETS GOING IN THE
CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND IF ANY MODEL CONTINUITY
DEVELOPS. FOR NOW...WILL INDICATE TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER THROUGH
THE EXTENDED TIME FRAME.

[Stormcenter]

I notice now the projected path of "possible" tropical system is now more geared toward the NE GOM and not the Central GOM. I'm not -removed- this toward Florida but just noting what the models are showing. Anyway, we don't have anything now so it's a mute point.