Models show more active Atlantic

[cycloneye]

00z GFS at 96 Hours

[PTPatrick]

FROM NWS MOBILE DISCO:


.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)...NO CHANGES TO LONG TERM
FCST THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS DISCN FOLLOWS...DURING THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEKEND THE UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES WESTWARD TO A POSITION
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE THE SFC HIGH OVER THE NORTHEAST
IS REPLACED BY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL REACH
THE AREA ON MONDAY AND GRADUALLY WASH OUT AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
COAST. TEMPERATURES AND POPS WILL CONTINUE NEAR CLIMO THROUGH THE
PERIOD. /12


THEY DID NOTMENTION A TROPICAL SYSTEM BUT IF THIS PATTERN HELD TRUE, THEN WHAT MIGHT THAT PORTEND IF THIS LITTLE THING DOES COME TO TRUE.

[cycloneye]

00z GFS at 126 Hours

1004 mbs.

[PTPatrick]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

Has anybody noticed the little blowup north of panama over the last 4 hours? I am sure this is just some storms that should die...but it definately makes one look twice

[curtadams]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

Has anybody noticed the little blowup north of panama over the last 4 hours? I am sure this is just some storms that should die...but it definately makes one look twice

A recent run of the GFS made something in that area into a major hurricane. It was the only model that did, though.

[cycloneye]

00z GFS at 150 Hours

[PTPatrick]

Yeah, I am totally not one to jump on the 1 week GFS forecasts...but I must admit, given the time of year, and what I went through last year with katrina, anything heading torward the NGOM marks me double take. I hope this is just more model crapola, but seems like more models are on the band wagon...and given the storminess down in those parts, I am now in watch mode. Of course I have since moved to Colorado, but my folks still live on the water in Mississippi...

[sma10]

Inside Africa these systems look great once they emerge off the coast those ULL will kill whatever develops.

Where is there an ULL in the Eastern tropical atlantic?

To "kill" a tropical wave, the ULL has to at least be NEAR the thing.

[cycloneye]

00z GFS at 162 Hours

1001 mbs.

[Stratosphere747]

It also shows a system in the NGOM.

[Jim Cantore]

I said it when I called into talkin tropics, I think a 15 day run is ridiculous. Especially because you know somebody is going to think thats whats going to happen.

[Stormcenter]

00z GFS at 162 Hours

1001 mbs.

I can't make that out that map very well, does it have it heading toward LA/MS/AL or FL?

[PTPatrick]

last frame showing a ladfall in a week around panama city, FL...of course you know how this sort of thing can go.

[cycloneye]

00z GFS at 162 Hours

1001 mbs.

I can't make that out that map very well, does it have it heading toward LA/MS/AL or FL?

No,it's another system that goes into the Gom,the one wxman57 has pointed out.

[Stratosphere747]

The 1001 is for the wave coming off of Africa...

The other one shows it going into the Florida panhandle.

[SouthAlabamaWX]

00z GFS at 162 Hours

1001 mbs.

I can't make that out that map very well, does it have it heading toward LA/MS/AL or FL?

Florida...Near Panama City.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The likely hood of that gulf system happing is about as good as me winnner a million dollars.

[SouthAlabamaWX]

The likely hood of that gulf system happing is about as good as me winnner a million dollars.

Some folks were saying the same thing about Katrina last year.

[Stormcenter]

If anybody is interested.

Click below.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

[cycloneye]

00z GFS at 216 Hours

At this time the low weakens up to 1009 mbs and not going to the caribbean.