Invest 93L,E of Florida,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

[StormWarning1]

They did not miss it. I am glad they did not call it a depression. I think they would have done so if they thought the conditions were a little better for intensification, but, this is not going to amount to anything.

Do not know what JB's gripe is all about. Perhaps he is getting a little concerned about his lofty forecast for activity this season.

Actually, he expects (and has always expected) as few or fewer storms than NOAA has out now. He doesn't make predictions on the overall numbers, because he feels that storms only matter to the public if they make landfall. However, he is forecasting an incredibly active season in terms of east coast landfalls, and so far I haven't seen anything that would make me doubt that. (BTW-he has been ripped apart for his forecast for landfalls every year, but for the last few years his landfall forecasts were UNDERdone).

What JB's "gripe" is about, to paraphrase, is that they have objective rules for declaring systems depressions, but they like to play games and make the public rely on their subjective classifications instead. If something that is a depression today would not be a depression tomorrow, IMO there's something wrong.

No, there is nothing wrong. Their ultimate mission is public safety, not satisfying someones desire to see objective classifications. If 93L is probably a depression, but all data indicates it will be dissapated before nearing land, then they did the right thing passing on it. Too much media attention right now to every storm that forms. With Chris fizzling out they don't want to start the 'crying wolf syndrome'.

[caneflyer]

Here is the definition of tropical cyclone from the TPC web site:

"A warm-core non-frontal synoptic-scale cyclone, originating over tropical or subtropical waters, with organized deep convection and a closed surface wind circulation about a well-defined center."

Note the requirement for "organized deep convection". This is a subjective criterion, not an objective rule. The Dvorak classification is a useful, if imperfect measure of convective organization. But even it is only semi-objective. Usually, consensus T2.0 classifications are the trigger for TPC to call a system a tropical cyclone. This system never came close to being a consensus T2.0.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

So they upgraded Arlene and Alberto based on a 1.0t. With a broad LLC with many smaller LLC moving around inside it. With no convection over the LLC whats so ever. The fact is this was a depresssion because it had 30 mph winds and a closed defined LLC. Unless this moves into the gulf this will not have much chance....But to say it was not while it clearly was blows me away.

3 vortexs shown it had closed LLC. Plus quickscats still show it doe's...What more do you went? It also did have organized convection before it was blown off.

[StormWarning1]

So they upgraded Arlene and Alberto based on a 1.0t. With a broad LLC with many smaller LLC moving around inside it. With no convection over the LLC whats so ever. The fact is this was a depresssion because it had 30 mph winds and a closed defined LLC. Unless this moves into the gulf this will not have much chance....But to say it was not while it clearly was blows me away.

3 vortexs shown it had closed LLC. Plus quickscats still show it doe's...What more do you went? It also did have organized convection before it was blown off.

There is no need to get the general public all worked up over a system that they feel will be dissipated in 24 hours I suspect. If so, it was the right decision. They can satisfy the desires of weather purist with post season analysis.

[curtadams]

What JB's "gripe" is about, to paraphrase, is that they have objective rules for declaring systems depressions, but they like to play games and make the public rely on their subjective classifications instead. If something that is a depression today would not be a depression tomorrow, IMO there's something wrong.

No, there is nothing wrong. Their ultimate mission is public safety, not satisfying someones desire to see objective classifications. If 93L is probably a depression, but all data indicates it will be dissapated before nearing land, then they did the right thing passing on it. Too much media attention right now to every storm that forms. With Chris fizzling out they don't want to start the 'crying wolf syndrome'.

Then why did they classify Epsilon and several other storms out in the middle of the Atlantic predicted to fizzle instantly? Yes, public safety is their primary goal, but they also play a role in climatological science too. It does not help climatological research to underreport storms. So far this year we've had two storm that were functionally tropical cyclones but which didn't quite meet some technical requirements. OK, I understand that, but the flip side is that when a storm *does* meet the technical requirements, it should be upgraded. A bias against ID'ing storms is not a good thing.

[StormWarning1]

What JB's "gripe" is about, to paraphrase, is that they have objective rules for declaring systems depressions, but they like to play games and make the public rely on their subjective classifications instead. If something that is a depression today would not be a depression tomorrow, IMO there's something wrong.

No, there is nothing wrong. Their ultimate mission is public safety, not satisfying someones desire to see objective classifications. If 93L is probably a depression, but all data indicates it will be dissapated before nearing land, then they did the right thing passing on it. Too much media attention right now to every storm that forms. With Chris fizzling out they don't want to start the 'crying wolf syndrome'.

Then why did they classify Epsilon and several other storms out in the middle of the Atlantic predicted to fizzle instantly? Yes, public safety is their primary goal, but they also play a role in climatological science too. It does not help climatological research to underreport storms. So far this year we've had two storm that were functionally tropical cyclones but which didn't quite meet some technical requirements. OK, I understand that, but the flip side is that when a storm *does* meet the technical requirements, it should be upgraded. A bias against ID'ing storms is not a good thing.

They can satisfy climatological science with post season analysis.

The general public could care less about storms in the middle of the Atlantic. Classify them is no big concern to the general public. Classifying a system near the U.S. mainland brings on a main stream media barrage.

[TampaFl]

Radar out of NWS JAX shows 93L m(or remenants thereof) moving ssw toward NE Florida. Has a nice semi turning to it. Thoughts and comments welcomed.

Robert


http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=JAX&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

[Thunder44]

I'm afraid it may make it across Florida into the GOM. Although just looking at 0z GFS shear forecast over the 3 days or so it may not be favorbable for development there as well.

[caneflyer]

So they upgraded Arlene and Alberto based on a 1.0t. With a broad LLC with many smaller LLC moving around inside it. With no convection over the LLC whats so ever. The fact is this was a depresssion because it had 30 mph winds and a closed defined LLC. Unless this moves into the gulf this will not have much chance....But to say it was not while it clearly was blows me away.

3 vortexs shown it had closed LLC. Plus quickscats still show it doe's...What more do you went? It also did have organized convection before it was blown off.

Wrong. Alberto had CI numbers of T1.5 at 06Z on the 10th from both TAFB and SAB, the first depression time in the best track. Arlene had a 1.5 classification from AFWA within 3 hours of the best track genesis time. You can sit there and disagree with the decision, but at least get the facts correct.

[jdray]

Ill let everyone know what my winds were when this thing passes overhead later.

[Stormavoider]

Looking at Jax radar, It's trying to wrap itself in convection despite the brutal shear.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=jax&loop=yes

[Thunder44]

Jeff Masters said in his blog last night that shear had destroyed the surface circulation already. It's obvious that wasn't the case. I'm not suprised by the flare-up this morning. It probably be like yesterday, it would look impressive for awhile this morning , but it will fall apart later in the day.

[Stormavoider]

What is the shear tendency forecast for the this area? This system seams to be at a "fork" in the upper level winds.

[Thunder44]

What is the shear tendency forecast for the this area? This system seams to be at a "fork" in the upper level winds.

Latest analysis shows 30kt to 40kt winds over the system and increasing.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

[Stormavoider]

Thanks

It looks like the center has quickly shifted SSW under the convection.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=30&lon=-77&info=vis&zoom=1&width=2800&height=2000&type=Animation&numframes=6&palette=ir.pal

[SCMedic]

Not at all..Look at the local loop out of Jacksonville, and look closely at the loop you posted. Convection is still south of the llc. Don't be fooled, or wishcast. This thing is going nowhere fast.

[Thunder44]

395
WHXX01 KWBC 181336
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932006) ON 20060818 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060818 1200 060819 0000 060819 1200 060820 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 30.5N 80.1W 29.0N 82.5W 27.6N 85.2W 26.6N 87.9W
BAMM 30.5N 80.1W 29.3N 81.7W 28.0N 83.6W 26.9N 85.4W
A98E 30.5N 80.1W 29.6N 80.8W 28.4N 81.9W 27.3N 83.3W
LBAR 30.5N 80.1W 29.5N 81.5W 28.9N 83.3W 28.6N 85.0W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 32KTS 36KTS
DSHP 25KTS 25KTS 30KTS 34KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060820 1200 060821 1200 060822 1200 060823 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 25.8N 90.6W 25.1N 96.5W 25.2N 102.4W 25.4N 107.0W
BAMM 25.8N 87.2W 24.6N 91.6W 24.6N 96.1W 24.2N 99.2W
A98E 26.2N 84.6W 24.3N 87.5W 24.4N 90.4W 25.5N 93.8W
LBAR 28.4N 87.0W 28.7N 90.9W 29.5N 93.9W 30.1N 95.0W
SHIP 38KTS 46KTS 54KTS 57KTS
DSHP 37KTS 45KTS 52KTS 34KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 30.5N LONCUR = 80.1W DIRCUR = 215DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 31.4N LONM12 = 79.2W DIRM12 = 221DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 32.3N LONM24 = 78.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 75NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

SHIPS and DSHP somehow makes this into a strong TS by 96hrs.

[Stormavoider]

Not at all..Look at the local loop out of Jacksonville, and look closely at the loop you posted. Convection is still south of the llc. Don't be fooled, or wishcast. This thing is going nowhere fast.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=jax&loop=yes

[Thunder44]

Not at all..Look at the local loop out of Jacksonville, and look closely at the loop you posted. Convection is still south of the llc. Don't be fooled, or wishcast. This thing is going nowhere fast.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=jax&loop=yes

There are only few showers north of the broad center. If you look visible imagery you see a hook in the clouds just north of higher clouds to south. Alot of what you see on infrared imagery are high cloud tops being blow off from the only one or two thunderstorms on the south side of center.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Gotta give this sucker credit for fighting 40kts of shear and adversity