Models show more active Atlantic

[cycloneye]

00z Loop at 384 Hours

Ok folks,the run is now complete so what I did is to post the whole loop at 384 hours.It turns into a hurricane at the end of the loop well east of the U.S.

[storm4u]

in my opinion its still way to close for comfort i rather seeing it hit us dead on now because it would more then likely change for the better and not affect us!!

[Meso]

the 06 runs are being released at present... So far at 108 hours it is still developing something and has it at 1008 at that time.. [ 1004 at 132 hours ]..[ 1001 at 150 hours (I think,if my eyes don't decieve me) ]...[ 1009 at 204 hours ]

The 384 hour

[ThunderMate]

Wait, is that the hurricane right off the us coast? did it go back to saying that again as yesterday morning or is this a different system?

[Meso]

It's the same system and does look more like yesterday mornings runs.. And there is another 1008 mb low off the african coast at that time.. As said a million times,still very far out.. so lots will change probably,Still showing consistancy though

[ThunderMate]

Yes, consistancy is a definate key here. All model runs since yesterday day morning have been showing a hurricane tracking within the general direction of the us east coast . Definately makes it more fun to watch when it keeps showing it.

[Thunder44]

Even if the model consistently shows the storm for next few days or so, it still wouldn't hold much merit. Especially if it's just the only one showing it. It's just too long away and it's just not that good of a long-range model.

[ThunderMate]

Yes, but what else is there and lets have some fun with it b/c there hasn't been anything this year in the atlantic that has been really long range tracker.

[cycloneye]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

For those who want to see the loop for the 6z run here it is.

[Windtalker1]

What I don't like with that run is the west movement implying that the high will build back in toward the end, then breaks down and allows it to move more NW then N then NE....what if the high is to strong for a recurve?

[cycloneye]

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 9N14W 10N34W 11N37W 10N50W 9N54W TO
INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 8N72W. A MODERATE TO STRONG
CLUSTER OF CONVECTION LIES JUST NORTH OF THE AXIS...OFF THE
COAST OF AFRICA FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 15W-17W. JUST TO THE SW OF
THIS CLUSTER LIES ANOTHER CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 17W-21W. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE
SOME BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING IN THIS REGION. THIS ALONG WITH
ANALYSIS OF THE HOVMOLLER DIAGRAMS ON THE TAFB WEBSITE SUGGEST A
DEVELOPING TROPICAL WAVE MAY BE MOVING OFF OF AFRICA.

From 8 AM Discussion.

Here it comes.THe wave is almost out of Africa this morning.

[wxwonder12]

that is a quite a system that heads towards Florida then recurves at the coast

[ThunderMate]

Oh yeah...i love the wording....

THIS ALONG WITH
ANALYSIS OF THE HOVMOLLER DIAGRAMS ON THE TAFB WEBSITE SUGGEST A
DEVELOPING TROPICAL WAVE MAY BE MOVING OFF OF AFRICA.

[miamicanes177]

989mb at 360 hours.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_360l.gif

[Lowpressure]

989mb at 360 hours.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_360l.gif

An approach like that would be very much like IVAN. In too many ways!!

[cycloneye]

NRL Image

Above pic of NRL shows the wave almost all it's structure in the water.

[Josephine96]

how long would they wait to classify it a TD? {pending it holds it's own}

[cycloneye]

how long would they wait to classify it a TD? {pending it holds it's own}

That depends on sat estimates and surface observations by ships or bouys to then do that.However right now as I type this is not a wave analized yet or introduced by NHC.But later today they will do so.

[Josephine96]

So we'd have to wait a couple days.. Ok, Luis, thank ya

[cycloneye]