Invest 93L,E of Florida,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

[Stormavoider]

Not at all..Look at the local loop out of Jacksonville, and look closely at the loop you posted. Convection is still south of the llc. Don't be fooled, or wishcast. This thing is going nowhere fast.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=jax&loop=yes

There are only few showers north of the broad center. If you look visible imagery you see a hook in the clouds just north of higher clouds to south. Alot of what you see on infrared imagery is high cloud tops being blow off from the center. There only one or two thunderstorms on the south side.

Are you looking at this and Jax radar?
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=30&lon=-77&info=vis&zoom=1&width=2800&height=2000&type=Animation&numframes=6&palette=ir.pal

[Thunder44]

Not at all..Look at the local loop out of Jacksonville, and look closely at the loop you posted. Convection is still south of the llc. Don't be fooled, or wishcast. This thing is going nowhere fast.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=jax&loop=yes

There are only few showers north of the broad center. If you look visible imagery you see a hook in the clouds just north of higher clouds to south. Alot of what you see on infrared imagery is high cloud tops being blow off from the center. There only one or two thunderstorms on the south side.

Are you looking at this and Jax radar?
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=30&lon=-77&info=vis&zoom=1&width=2800&height=2000&type=Animation&numframes=6&palette=ir.pal

Yeah, I'm not sure what you are seeing.

[Thunder44]

This is where I think the center is:

[Stormavoider]

I'm seeing a center @ 30.2N 80.0W.

[Thunder44]

I'm seeing a center @ 30.2N 80.0W.

I think you are little too far south. It's more like 30.5N.

[Sanibel]

There has to be something to this for it to pump convection in such wicked shear.

It future is to move over Florida and dissipate.

[Thunder44]

The center looks like it's being torn apart from NE to SW on visible imagery. It may not last throughout the day.

[AJC3]

There has to be something to this for it to pump convection in such wicked shear.

<snip>

There is. It's the shear itself. the 50-60kt jet streak is producing a fair amount of upper divergence over the system. This should decrease as the jet max pushes SW to WSW during the day. Likewise, I have doubts that any additional convection today will be as intense as what occurred earlier this morning.

Not to say that it won't try to phart out some more...it over farily tepid shelf water in close proximity to the gulf stream, and there is a broad but evident LLC, so the low level flow remains convergent.

[rolltide]

There has to be something to this for it to pump convection in such wicked shear.

It future is to move over Florida and dissipate.

Anybody think this might continue wsw across Florida into the NE gulf?

[Stormavoider]

There has to be something to this for it to pump convection in such wicked shear.

It future is to move over Florida and dissipate.

Anybody think this might continue wsw across Florida into the NE gulf?

Someone does

395
WHXX01 KWBC 181336
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932006) ON 20060818 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060818 1200 060819 0000 060819 1200 060820 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 30.5N 80.1W 29.0N 82.5W 27.6N 85.2W 26.6N 87.9W
BAMM 30.5N 80.1W 29.3N 81.7W 28.0N 83.6W 26.9N 85.4W
A98E 30.5N 80.1W 29.6N 80.8W 28.4N 81.9W 27.3N 83.3W
LBAR 30.5N 80.1W 29.5N 81.5W 28.9N 83.3W 28.6N 85.0W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 32KTS 36KTS
DSHP 25KTS 25KTS 30KTS 34KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060820 1200 060821 1200 060822 1200 060823 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 25.8N 90.6W 25.1N 96.5W 25.2N 102.4W 25.4N 107.0W
BAMM 25.8N 87.2W 24.6N 91.6W 24.6N 96.1W 24.2N 99.2W
A98E 26.2N 84.6W 24.3N 87.5W 24.4N 90.4W 25.5N 93.8W
LBAR 28.4N 87.0W 28.7N 90.9W 29.5N 93.9W 30.1N 95.0W
SHIP 38KTS 46KTS 54KTS 57KTS
DSHP 37KTS 45KTS 52KTS 34KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 30.5N LONCUR = 80.1W DIRCUR = 215DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 31.4N LONM12 = 79.2W DIRM12 = 221DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 32.3N LONM24 = 78.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 75NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

SHIPS and DSHP somehow makes this into a strong TS by 96hrs.

[Emmett_Brown]

I'm sitting here on my lunch hour in downtown Jax, and the clouds are definitely increasing and lowering... getting that familiar "system in the area" look to them, where they lower and start to move more quickly. Winds are light.

Quickscat shows the system nicely:

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBas74.png

[Emmett_Brown]

Definitely still hanging in there on Jax radar...

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[Stormavoider]

Someone needs to send 93L an email and tell it this shear is killing it..

[Stormcenter]

I tell you what 93L is hanging in there as it heads SW. So what happens if it makes it into the GOM?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

How will it impact, or be impacted by, a possible system heading north through the GOM?

[curtadams]

I'm sitting here on my lunch hour in downtown Jax, and the clouds are definitely increasing and lowering... getting that familiar "system in the area" look to them, where they lower and start to move more quickly. Winds are light.

Quickscat shows the system nicely:

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBas74.png

And this isn't a TD? You've got to be kidding me. Tight wind field, closed circulation, convection towards the center, 30+ kt wind, what's not to like? Yeah, probably doomed with the jet stream on it but at the moment ...

[Stormavoider]

I think they have issues with rejection. With all the let-downs this season has dealt.

[Sanibel]

Seems stationary.


They won't bother to upgrade in such a hostile environment.

[gatorcane]

Looks like a TD to me - the NHC basically gave it a chance for days and then finally wrote it off yesterday due to the hostile env - then guess what as soon as they write it off it surprises us and should probably be a TD now but if they called it a TD it would not be in line with what they forecasted...

[fci]

Looks like a TD to me - the NHC basically gave it a chance for days and then finally wrote it off yesterday due to the hostile env - then guess what as soon as they write it off it surprises us and should probably be a TD now but if they called it a TD it would not be in line with what they forecasted...

Waste of time to upgrade it and issue advisories only to downgrade it shortly.