Possible GoM Tropical Threat next Tuesday/Wednesday?

[wxman57]

Nothing is being said on the local news about this yet in the Mobile area. I did see the NWS statement for the future but that is about all. I guess it is a wait and see scenario.

No reason to panic the general public yet about a slight risk. But, like I pointed out in a post last evening, we have refineries all along the Gulf coast that may need 3-4 days to prepare, so we can't wait until we're 100% certain it'll develop to let them know of the possibility of development.

I see JB is still whining about the NHC not upgrading 93L east of Georgia this morning while ignoring the real potential threat.

[Portastorm]

He said he would post later today on next week's potential Gulf threat. But yes, 57, you're right in that he appears to be quite upset over the 93L matter.

[Pigsnibble]

I thought I was looking at the 06Z GFS animation.....and I don't see low developing.

Does someone have a link for the correct models that are showing this ?

Thx

[LaBreeze]

Local met stated this morning that areas to the east of us (I'm in SW LA) will have to deal with some sort of "tropical system" next week. I'm presuming SE LA and eastward to FL.

[Portastorm]

I thought I was looking at the 06Z GFS animation.....and I don't see low developing.

Does someone have a link for the correct models that are showing this ?

Thx

The 06z run of the GFS was a little less bullish on this system than the 0z run as you may have picked up on. Anyhow, check out this link and days 7-14:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... /fpc.shtml

[White Cap]

Local met stated this morning that areas to the east of us (I'm in SW LA) will have to deal with some sort of "tropical system" next week. I'm presuming SE LA and eastward to FL.

Oh, that is comforting to hear.

[bevgo]

Keep your fingers crossed and BLOW!!!!! I dont want to deal with a TS or worse next week. I am prepared but I have a big meeting in Jackson Thursday. I guess I can go by way of Meridian and drop off the grandson so he is safe if anything is threatning. I am assuming we will kinow more early next week so I am going to watch but not go nuts yet. No need to run for the hills yet--LOL.

This wil be a major problem all along the coast from N.O. all the way through Mobile because of the existing damage and FEMA trailers. I, for one, will not be taking any chances if anything heads this way.

[miamicanes177]

12Z NAM 84 hours:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif

[Pigsnibble]

I thought I was looking at the 06Z GFS animation.....and I don't see low developing.

Does someone have a link for the correct models that are showing this ?

Thx

The 06z run of the GFS was a little less bullish on this system than the 0z run as you may have picked up on. Anyhow, check out this link and days 7-14:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... /fpc.shtml

Wow....I'm looking at hours 300+ on this....scary along the eastern seaboard.

Thanks for the link

[DESTRUCTION5]

Im not honing in on any of WX57's Ideas but if anthing were to develop I could see it ramping to Cane status in a hurry with the heat content avalible...

[Stormcenter]

Looks like a possible Florida panhandle problem if some does materialize.

[bob rulz]

12Z NAM 84 hours:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif

Oh, haha, on first glance I thought it was that hurricane it forecasts in the East Pacific. But still, is it normal for NAM to so consistently pick up on this? Also, sorry if this has been stated, but how much total model support is there for this?

[wxman57]

Im not honing in on any of WX57's Ideas but if anthing were to develop I could see it ramping to Cane status in a hurry with the heat content avalible...

I'm in agreement that if it develops, then there may be little to prevent it from strengthening rapidly. IF it develops.....

[Acral]

This is not good, looking at it, and if this thing does spin up, it will put all of us in Katrina's "wake zone" under the gun.

[rolltide]

Looks like a possible Florida panhandle problem if some does materialize.

Thanks, just what I need this morning.

[decgirl66]

I get it...youre starting one because theres not one out there yet...im smart

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

What about this meandering ULL that is supposed to slowly cross over the FL penninsula over the next few days? What is supposed to happen to it? If it is able to cross the state, will the ridge over FL still be a wall against this possible storm or will it weaken the whole ridge? -or make it build in stronger behind it whether it dissipates or continues into the gulf? I guess it would need to dissipate, cuz if it makes it across the state, it would screw up the whoel possibility fo the new gulf system huh?

[curtadams]

12Z NAM 84 hours:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif

Oh, haha, on first glance I thought it was that hurricane it forecasts in the East Pacific. But still, is it normal for NAM to so consistently pick up on this? Also, sorry if this has been stated, but how much total model support is there for this?

The NAM forecasts almost everything to develop. No global predicts anything significant in the Gulf in the next week on the 06Z runs.

[Meso]

At 130 hours the GFS has (What appears to be the same system,just moving slower and more to the west) in the SW gulf

[beachbum_al]

I have one word. Well maybe more than one. If this thing pans out there are going to be a lot of people along the Gulf Coast that will be in dire need of help. Like stated before there are many people in FEMA trailers. There are people who are still trying to pick up the pieces and make the best with lives with what they have left. They don't need something like coming knocking at their door. I know I will be watching it but until it looks like it is coming this way I will continue reading here and seeing what happens. Pretty much already have a plan and have some items stocked up.