Models show more active Atlantic

[miamicanes177]

A lot weaker on 12Z run. Hopefully previous runs were bogus.

[MWatkins]

Just throwing this in...

Looks like the 12Z NOGAPS is on to development in the eastern Atlantic as well. It's showing a closed low at 500MB in 72 hours...around 30W:

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/w ... 00&tau=072

MW

[brunota2003]

just because they are reading the stuff here doesnt mean that they are going to jack up prices because of what one person says...maybe they want to learn more about these systems also...and maybe they can figure out ways to lessen the blow of a storm...just my opinion of course...

[ThunderMate]

Is the GFS done yet? it never refreshes for me.

[bvigal]

I am lost at what you are trying to say bvigal....

Sorry, I wasn't being too clear. The 12z GFS shows in first few frames, no low down in the area where we are looking, around 8N. It does, however show a low up near 14N coming off the coast in those same first couple of frames. This corresponds with Dakar, Senegal surface reading at noon of 1007mb. Also, surface readings further south show higher pressures. Here are those links and coordinates in decimal:

Dakar, Senegal 14.73N 15.51W
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/GOOY.html

Conakry, Guinea 9.57N 13.62W
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/GUCY.html

Lungi, Sierra Leone 8.62N 13.21W
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/GFLL.html

[Trugunzn]

Last several frame its weaker but stalls the system

[Meso]

Yeah it's just finished... with the current system weaker... but another 2 developing systems behind it ?



PS : Those are some strong highs

[bvigal]

Now want to comment on the other comments about the 12z run showing a sharp turn to north after 126hrs, as a 1021mb high to the north simply dissipates. Wish I could believe that scenario! Not quite buying that yet. It could be correct, but it's pretty far out, and I certainly wouldn't count on it this early in the game.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

There looks to be a persistent trough along the east coast.
I'm not saying that any of the systems that may develop out there will hit
the east coast, but that the persistent trough increases the risk for the east coast, for the next couple weeks.

I know factors change a lot on a daily basis...but
we should all keep our eyes open.

[ThunderMate]

the trough along with a strong high is a recipe for an ec hit....

[bvigal]

... People need to learn to be a bit more patient with the NHC or TPC because they will mention it when they mention it. They are not ignoring this and neither have they said this will not develop or it looks like it won't.

I feel the need to clarify something here. I read a quote that Jeff Masters last night saying a wave EXISTS off the coast of Africa. I then remarked that it wasn't on NHC's products. That was not impatience with the NHC. I want to be very clear about that. It was more like I was saying, 'I don't believe Master's statement, because it hasn't been verified at NHC." Same applies when it was not mentioned at 11:30 or graphed at 12z. I'm saying, according to the experts (NHC) maybe it's not quite there yet.

[Frank2]

My point, exactly - some here were almost asking, "When (or where) do you think it'll make landfall?" - "it" does not exist, and, the NHC, having an "on the map" way of doing things, likely won't mention anything that has not even formed yet.

Talk about a credibility gap - imagine what would happen if they make much of every computer creation, only to see it vanish a day or two later?

Frank

P.S. The same goes for those speculators - the market is jumpy enough, without them spreading a false rumor...

[Jim Cantore]

Time is on our side if this plays out, all we can do is watch it. This is still 10-15 days off.

[ConvergenceZone]

any good cold fronts of warm fronts to track?? LOL


borrrrinngg ( as I glance up at the calendar confused)

[Weatherfreak14]

How boring, this to me is the most excitment I had all season.

[Grease Monkey]

any good cold fronts of warm fronts to track?? LOL


borrrrinngg ( as I glance up at the calendar confused)

Hopefully it wont be long before the activity starts. Mike on the tropics show sounded very confident that this season was going to get active very soon and possibly last little longer to make up for lost time.

[bvigal]

Having left to do more work, I returned to read the TWD 2pm. I have to say that is a most complex mix of lows, highs, troughs, etc. No wonder it wasn't ready early! Anyone care to chart all those features for us???

"THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N79W 28N80W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 26N TO 29N BETWEEN 69W AND 72W. OTHER ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 68W AND THE U.S.A. COAST. A WESTERN ATLANTIC MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 29N75W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 32N68W...SOMEWHAT NEAR THE 1018 MB SURFACE LOW CENTER NEAR 32N63W. THE LARGE SCALE 25N59W MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA AT 15N TO 30N BETWEEN 52W AND 70W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...SOME DEVELOPING...SOME WEAKENING AND THEN RE-DEVELOPING IN A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT LOCATION...ARE FOUND FROM 20N TO 31N BETWEEN 50W AND 63W. A LARGE SCALE DEEP LAYER LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 36N41W. THE CORRESPONDING SURFACE 1013 MB LOW CENTER IS NEAR 38N43W. A TROUGH GOES FROM THE SURFACE LOW CENTER TO 37N39W 32N38W 28N40W. POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 15 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. SHOWERS ARE NEAR 33N36W AND NORTHWARD. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 29W/30W FROM 13N TO AT LEAST 32N AND BEYOND. ONE TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF NORTHERN MOROCCO. ANOTHER TROUGH IS MOVING TOWARD
THE CANARY ISLANDS. "

[wxwatcher91]

Is this the wave the GFS is developing?

[Hurricaneman]

yes, even though the GFS imo is overdoing the strength

[x-y-no]

Well, this is interesting ...

The Euro, which hasn't been enthusiastic about this thing at all, suddenly woke up and noticed it in the 12Z run ...

Day 6:



Day 7:



(SLP and 500mb heights)

Less ridge strength ahead than in the GFS scenario, though.