Possible GoM Tropical Threat next Tuesday/Wednesday?

[bob rulz]

12Z NAM 84 hours:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif

Oh, haha, on first glance I thought it was that hurricane it forecasts in the East Pacific. But still, is it normal for NAM to so consistently pick up on this? Also, sorry if this has been stated, but how much total model support is there for this?

The NAM forecasts almost everything to develop. No global predicts anything significant in the Gulf in the next week on the 06Z runs.

Thanks.

[Stormcenter]

This thread has lost alot of steam, it was burning last night and now it's stalled out. I guess the concern has diminished somewhat with the new model outputs.

[SouthFloridawx]

This thread has lost alot of steam, it was burning last night and now it's stalled out. I guess the concern has diminished somewhat with the new model outputs.

It will pick back up again if the models are showing this again on the next run.

EDIT:

CMC still developing it.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... hour=144hr

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... hour=144hr

GFS not showing a closed low but, it is showing some vorticity..
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=144hr

FSUMM5 Also showing vorticity
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsutc ... hour=120hr

NOGAPS also picking up on this system as well
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/nogapstc ... hour=144hr
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/nogapstc ... hour=144hr

[Stormcenter]

The just issued HPC extended discussion makes no mention of anything tropical next week.

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
216 PM EDT FRI AUG 18 2006

VALID 12Z MON AUG 21 2006 - 12Z FRI AUG 25 2006

FINALALIZED HPC MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE MAINTAINS CLOSE CONTINUITY
WITH PRELIMINARY HPC GUIDANCE AND HAS FAVORABLE SUPPORT FROM ECMWF
ENSEMBLES. THIS PREFFERRED SOLUTION IS BASICALLY A 00 UTC
ECWMF/NCEP ENSEMBLE MEAN AND TO A LESSER EXTENT 00 UTC GFS BLEND
OVER NOAM AND ADJOINING OCEANS. THE NEWER 12 UTC GFS SEEMS TO
HAVE E-CNTRL US FEEDBACK ISSUES AND OVERALL SEEMS TO DEAMPLIFY THE
FLOW ALOFT TOO MUCH FROM THE E-CENTRAL PAC AND AK INLAND OVER TIME
CONSIDERING AMPLIFIED UPSTREAM LEAD-IN NW PAC FLOW.

...NOAM...

00Z GUIDANCE GENERALLY SUGGESTS THAT A NE PAC RIDGE SHOULD
STRENGTHEN BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. THIS RIDGE SUPPORTS
A MEAN TROF OVER CENTRAL NOAM BY LATE NEXT WEEK. TELECONNECTIONS
RELATIVE TO THE NE PAC POS ANOMALY CENTER FAVOR A CORE OF BELOW
NORMAL HGTS JUST SW OF HUDSON BAY NEAR MANITOBA...WHICH IS FAIRLY
CLOSE TO THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FCST THOUGH...CONSIDERING SOME EARLIER GFS/ECMWF RUNS HAD DEPICTED
MUCH FLATTER FLOW OVER THE NE PAC. THE MODELS ALSO SHOW SOME
DISAGREEMENT ON HOW TO HANDLE ENERGY WITHIN/NEAR THE CLOSED LOW
OVER AK BUT AT LEAST THE 00 UTC GFS/ECMWF/NCEP ENSEMBLE MEAN OFFER
A MORE COMMON SOLUTION COMPARED TO THE 06/12 UTC GFS RUNS THAT ARE
SEEMINGLY TOO PROGRESSIVE LATER NEXT WEEK CONSIDERING AMPLIFIED
UPSTREAM NW PAC FLOW.

THE PRIMARY FCST PROBLEM FOR DAY 3 IS WITH THE SYSTEM FCST TO
REACH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. FLATTER/FASTER TRENDS OVER THE PAST
DAY... AND BEST CONSENSUS OF 00Z GUIDANCE...FAVOR A FARTHER S
SYSTEM THAN THE 00Z GFS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN SHORT RANGE
EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...THE DAY 3 FCST USES A BLEND OF THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF.

DURING DAYS 4-7...NCEP ENSEMBLE MEANS GENERALLY COMPARE BETTER TO
THE 00 UTC ECMWF THAN THE LATEST FEW GFS RUNS OR DGEX WITH SYSTEMS
ACROSS CANADA AND NRN CONUS AND HAS SUPPORT FROM ECMWF ENSEMBLES.
PREFER A DAYS 4-7 FCST THAT IS PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM A BLEND OF
THE 00 UTC ENSEMBLES/ECMWF TO PROVIDE DEFINITION FOR THE BEST
AGREED UPON FEATURES WHILE SMOOTHING OUT SOME DETAILS THAT SEEM TO
HAVE LOWER PREDICTABILITY.

RAUSCH/SCHICHTEL

[MortisFL]

Lets wait another 24-48 hours to see if something fires up down in the SW Caribbean.

[wxwatcher91]

This thread has lost alot of steam, it was burning last night and now it's stalled out. I guess the concern has diminished somewhat with the new model outputs.

There you go! if this season ends up below-average, and everyone it bored, we can track our own threads!
If anyone needs any more awesome ideas like that one, just call upon me!

[DESTRUCTION5]

This thread has lost alot of steam, it was burning last night and now it's stalled out. I guess the concern has diminished somewhat with the new model outputs.

It will pick back up again if the models are showing this again on the next run.

EDIT:

CMC still developing it.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... hour=144hr

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... hour=144hr

GFS not showing a closed low but, it is showing some vorticity..
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=144hr

FSUMM5 Also showing vorticity
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsutc ... hour=120hr

NOGAPS also picking up on this system as well
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/nogapstc ... hour=144hr
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/nogapstc ... hour=144hr

If CMC had some more deepening and it came true good night irene...Punch bowl woulf be filled...

[chrisnnavarre]

I don't see anything north of Panama, but can someone post the projected wind shear map for the Western Caribbean?

[Brent]

This thread has lost alot of steam, it was burning last night and now it's stalled out. I guess the concern has diminished somewhat with the new model outputs.

!

[SouthAlabamaWX]

Lets wait another 24-48 hours to see if something fires up down in the SW Caribbean.

That is what the NHC is planning on doing. They want to see some actitivity down there before they start talking about it.

[SouthAlabamaWX]

This thread has lost alot of steam, it was burning last night and now it's stalled out. I guess the concern has diminished somewhat with the new model outputs.

!

I noticed the same thing. I expected more activity on here today.

[LaBreeze]

Another "poof" probably? Anyone agree/disagree?

[T-man]

I think it has to form before it can go poof.

[docjoe]

Has your swirl stalled....has your LLC gone the way of the dodo bird, is your heat content lacking or does the SAL have you down...then you might have PFP...pre-formage poofage If so please contact your nearest storm 2Ker for further information..this has been a public service announcement

docjoe

[SouthFloridawx]

Has your swirl stalled....has your LLC gone the way of the dodo bird, is your heat content lacking or does the SAL have you down...then you might have PFP...pre-formage poofage If so please contact your nearest storm 2Ker for further information..this has been a public service announcement

docjoe

[fwbbreeze]

Has your swirl stalled....has your LLC gone the way of the dodo bird, is your heat content lacking or does the SAL have you down...then you might have PFP...pre-formage poofage If so please contact your nearest storm 2Ker for further information..this has been a public service announcement

docjoe

OMG that is classic.......

[bevgo]

Has your swirl stalled....has your LLC gone the way of the dodo bird, is your heat content lacking or does the SAL have you down...then you might have PFP...pre-formage poofage If so please contact your nearest storm 2Ker for further information..this has been a public service announcement

docjoe

Funny. I love the creativity on these boards.

[Stormcenter]

Nothing in the NWS New Orleans afternoon discussion about a possible tropical threat next week. As matter fact they talk about the possibility of a front sweeping through on Wednesday of next week.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
313 PM CDT FRI AUG 18 2006

.DISCUSSION...

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE TENNESSEE AND MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEYS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A SLIGHTLY WARMER LAYER OF AIR IN THE UPPER LEVELS AROUND
500MB...WILL CONTINUE TO CAP OFF MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH SUNDAY. AS A RESULT...HAVE ONLY WENT WITH
ISOLATED TO LOW END CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. COASTAL AREAS
OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI MAY SEE A BIT MORE RAINFALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...DUE TO DEEP EASTERLY FLOW TRANSPORTING A BIT
MORE MOISTURE FROM THE GULF. HOWEVER...EVEN IN THESE
AREAS...OVERALL COVERAGE WILL REMAIN LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA.

GOING INTO NEXT WEEK...AN INVERTED TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
UPPER LOW ADVANCING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA. THIS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING DEEPER MOISTURE
AND A BIT MORE LIFT TO THE AREA ON MONDAY. WITH THIS DEEPER
TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE...EXPECT AT LEAST CHANCE POPS TYPE
COVERAGE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BY MIDWEEK...A PATTERN CHANGE WILL
TAKE PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH A DEEP MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH TAKING HOLD...FORCING THE RIDGING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. THIS TROUGH WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...KEEPING HIGHER POPS IN PLACE THROUGH
MIDWEEK. AT THIS TIME...THE GFS HAS THE FRONT CLEARING MUCH OF THE
CWA...BEFORE STALLING OUT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
HOWEVER...AM NOT CONFIDENT OF THIS SCENARIO AS THE FRONTAL
PLACEMENT IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTH OF THE MID- LATITUDE
TROUGH. CONSIDERING THE TIME OF THE YEAR...AND THE HIGH LIKELIHOOD
THAT THE FRONT MAY STALL NEAR THE CWA...HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS IN
THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS NO MAJOR CHANGES IN 1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES ARE
NOTED.

&&

[Meso]

The 18z of the NAM is still showing the system,more the west now though,like the GFS is showing

[Stratosphere747]

Corpus' disco makes a mention of the models and why as of now, they are not "buying" it...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=CRPAFDCRP