posting deal

[willjnewton]

I have made a deal with my mentor mr. O that I will only post once a day at 401pm.. If I post more than once a day than I will have to buy him a candy bar with my own money.. the one exception if someone asks me a specific question...

willjnewton mentor here...I will help monitor will's progress. If you have a suggestion you can get me at comeara@verizon.net. I will also try to help him formulate one, straightfoward question for any post and then wait 24 hrs for answer. First one...

how does the east coast trough affect hurricane impacts on the east coast including frequency and probable landfalls? (2006 storm season)

[gopherfan21]

[cycloneye]

:?:

Why that signal? Check your PM box.

[WmE]

Are you serious. Do you really have a mentor??

[cycloneye]

Are you serious. Do you really have a mentor??

Check your PM box.

[gatorcane]

Okay Will sounds good...remember we are here to answer your questions the best we can

[fwbbreeze]

Good to have you here Will and keep posting those questions!!!!

fwbbreeze

[Steve]

>>how does the east coast trough affect hurricane impacts on the east coast including frequency and probable landfalls? (2006 storm season)

How did I know that would be today's question?

Strong troughs along the east coast can act as a deflector for storms approaching from the East or Southeast. This is because the flow around a trof is counterclockwise and steering mechanisms in the mid and especially upper atmosphere would tend to deflect systems back out toward the sea (assuming butt-end of the trough isn't at a northerly lat).

Just some basic thoughts. It gets much more complicated than that because of many underlying factors with pattern changes & reversals, other steering components, strength of system, etc.

Steve

[cycloneye]

Excellent Will.We are here to help you with any question that you may have and remember that we all love you.

[Steve]

And btw Mr. O, I think where Will is getting hung up on this question is that there is no easy answer to whether or not this will be a gulf or east coast system. I could be wrong, but he's looking for a cut and dry answer, and there just aren't any. There are no dominant signals in either the Atlantic or Pacific oceans this year (as often happens in neutral ENSO seasons) that trump everything else. Will wants someone to come right out and tell him that the east coast is of particular concern because of "x". But there are so many variables in play at any given time that make it next to impossible to answer that type of question with any simple answers.

Steve

[wxmann_91]

I don't know if I'm allowed to post this site, but I won't go into that further.

I hope you can understand this Will.

http://www.wxrisk.com/Meteorology/EChurricane.htm

In summary, the amplitude and location of the trough is going to determine a particular landfall of one storm. Now, if you're saying throughout the season, then that is more complicated since troughs propogate and change amplitude all the time.

[decgirl66]

I LOVE this community! Will....I LOVE your enthusiasm! Don't ever lose your sense of wonder!

[ConvergenceZone]

np Will. We enjoy having you on board!

[bevgo]

Thanks to who ever took Will under his wing. I really think he wants to learn but may be having difficulty with the fact that weather is more an art rather than a science at times. Because there are no definative answers to his question he has been unable to understand what factors will influence the weather in his area, especially TS and hurricanes. It is hard for many of us to understand all the factors that cause the path and intensity of a storm.

Will, I hope you will listen to your mentor so you are able to learn.

BTW, are you an adult or a teenager? You dont have to answer if you don't want. I am just curious. Just a nosey old lady LOL.

[cycloneye]

Thanks to who ever took Will under his wing. I really think he wants to learn but may be having difficulty with the fact that weather is more an art rather than a science at times. Because there are no definative answers to his question he has been unable to understand what factors will influence the weather in his area, especially TS and hurricanes. It is hard for many of us to understand all the factors that cause the path and intensity of a storm.

Will, I hope you will listen to your mentor so you are able to learn.

BTW, are you an adult or a teenager? You dont have to answer if you don't want. I am just curious. Just a nosey old lady LOL.

Check your PM box.

[Jagno]

Sounds like you made a very good posting deal Will. You will learn soooo much from these very smart guys. Weather doesn't always have a perfect answer because you have to remember it depends on soooo many factors all happening at the same time for each scenario to turn out the way it's predicted. Good luck!

[Cookiely]

Will,
I have a couple of ideas for you. First of all many people aren't aware that the county library where they live have sites online that they can use with their library card. It truly is a treasure trove of info and resources. Second, the library itself is a wonderful place to start to do some research into tropical systems. Ask your librarian for help on choosing some appropriate material.
I bet you will come up with some great questions to to test the mettle of all the experts on Storm2K. Everyone here is always ready and able to help you. I also have a suggestion to use the search function on Storm2K to find specific subjects that have already been discussed here. Go back to last season on the older posts and read and learn.
God Bless and Take Care,
Cookiely

[senorpepr]

To piggyback off of Steve's post... I have drawn a few maps.

These maps do not represent any specific height in the atmosphere, but consider them the steering flow—the level at which the tropical cyclone will move with.

On each of the pictures, I have drawn the isohypses (lines of equal height—the same pressure is measured at the same height along each line) in black with gray arrows showing how the wind is flowing. I also drew a dotted red line showing a typical tropical cyclone path under that flow.

The first image is a ridging pattern where the subtropical ridge (or Bermuda High) pushes into the Eastern US. This can force tropical cyclones into the East Coast relatively easily, especially the stronger the ridge is.



The second image is a troughing pattern where the subtropical ridge is being pushed out to sea thanks to a digging trough. This helps to block tropical cyclones for approaching the coastline.



The final image is a trough further north and the subtropical ridge pushing under the trough. This is a similar situation to a plain ridging pattern.



Essentially, it depends where the tropical cyclone forms. The closer it gets to a ridge or a trough, the more easily it is influenced by it.

I hope that this helps to clear things up.

Take care,
Mike

[HurricaneHunter914]

I don't like that last possibility, it brings a hurricane right over my house.

[StormScanWx]

Where (link) can you get a current image of isohypses? Is that possible?

Thanks,

SSW