posting deal

[dwg71]

I'm proud to be a member of this site...

[senorpepr]

Where (link) can you get a current image of isohypses? Is that possible?

Thanks,

SSW

That depends on what level you want.

Here's a 200mb (upper-level) chart from Unisys: http://weather.unisys.com/upper_air/ua_200.html

Here's a 500mb (mid-level) chart: http://weather.unisys.com/upper_air/ua_500.html

[willjnewton]

I understand that no one really knows, but is the trough forecast to go inland or stay offshore to block the canes for the remainder of this 2006 storm season???please explain okay, thanks

[StormScanWx]

Where (link) can you get a current image of isohypses? Is that possible?

Thanks,

SSW

That depends on what level you want.

Here's a 200mb (upper-level) chart from Unisys: http://weather.unisys.com/upper_air/ua_200.html

Here's a 500mb (mid-level) chart: http://weather.unisys.com/upper_air/ua_500.html

Which of these better demonstrates the "way" that a hurricane/tropical system would go? I'm guessing this isn't nearly all of the factors that could influence a hurricane's movement?

[senorpepr]

A really good method is to go slightly poleward of the 500 or 700mb flow.

[OuterBanker]

I know the mets here will probably yell at me but to put it in layman's terms. It's like bowling and your ball drops in the gutter. The trough is sometimes like the gutter

[dizzyfish]

Will, as I understand it the ridge (or high) doesn't stay in one place all the time. It kinda moves back and forth. Don't know if there is a way to accurately predict where it will be at a certain time.

Hope this helps ya!

This thread is a great idea! We can all learn more together!!!

[senorpepr]

I know the mets here will probably yell at me but to put it in layman's terms. It's like bowling and your ball drops in the gutter. The trough is sometimes like the gutter

Good analogy.

[willjnewton]

yes we can all learn more together and I know nobody BASICALLY knows but how will the high pressure ridge and the east coast trough affect for the remainder of this 2006 storm season???and if someone gives me the answers I will read and learn alot and maybe become a proffesional met someday- maybe

[rainstorm]

i hope you will post on a regular basis. i enjoy your eagerness to learn. things may change next wek. remain vigilant

[brunota2003]

yes we can all learn more together and I know nobody BASICALLY knows but how will the high pressure ridge and the east coast trough affect for the remainder of this 2006 storm season???and if someone gives me the answers I will read and learn alot and maybe become a proffesional met someday- maybe

there is no basicially know about it...we do not know, cant even make a guess, because we really do not know enough about them, your guess is about as good as mine as everyday the trough/high(s) are shifting and changing...even the NHC admited they did not know for sure where the trough/high, that affected Isabel, was going to set up exactly, just a mere 7 days before landfall, let alone the rest of the season...we just dont know...

[Jack8631]

I'm proud to be a member of this site...

Ditto.

[Aslkahuna]

There is another pattern and that's a highly amplified pattern with a deep trough possibly negative tilt (the trough axis is tilted NW-SE) with a strong N-S ridge offshore and strong S-N flow on the east side of the trough. If the the trough axis is inland the flow can pull a storm north and accelerate it quickly into the New England area. This is the pattern that resulted in the Long Island Express Hurricane of 1938 which was devastating. Almost all direct hits on New England with no prior overland track come with this type of pattern. The problem is, the atmosphere functions in a non linear fashion due to to the nature of the Physical Laws that govern its behavior. The equations that arise from these laws that are used in the computer models are incredibly complex and very difficult to solve and extremely time and resource consuming as we increase model resolution and increase the factors that go into the models. Add to this, the fact that we still have only a rudimentary understanding of the total process that goes into the production of weather, and we have a real problem trying to characterize the atmospheric pattern beyond a certain period of time. Unfortunately, that period of time is nowhere near long enough for us to be able to answer the question as to where the East Coast trough will be a month from from or what it will do for the entire season (heck, we have a hard enough time trying to figure out where it's going to be in 5 days). There's another factor that comes into play and that's the effect of the hurricane upon it's own environment. The outflow from an intense hurricane can have a significant effect upon the ridge that is controlling the steering which in turn can affect the position fo the trough towards which the hurricane may try to move if the latter is deep enough. It's a complex question with no clear cut answer and anyone who says differently is either blowing smoke or smoking a lot of weed.

Steve

[Stephanie]

I'm proud to be a member of this site...

so am I....

You are asking some great questions will and seem to be picking everything up quickly. You'll be teaching me in no time!

[Steve]

>>I understand that no one really knows, but is the trough forecast to go inland or stay offshore to block the canes for the remainder of this 2006 storm season???please explain okay, thanks

No one can forecast it will. Long term computer models are always different from one another and they all have their biases. It's not possible to say "there will be ridging into the coastal Carolinas in 30 days" any more than anyone can tell you it's going to rain in Norfolk on September 27, 2006. Things just don't work that way. As much as you keep asking the question about the east coast trough, you should keep telling yourself that there is no exact way to know because weather patterns evolve. Think of winter. Sometimes a coldfront (trough) comes through and it gets cold. Sometimes they retreat north and you get warm. It's just like that off the eastern seaboard. Sometimes there is a really strong high pressure that noses into the continental united states. Sometimes it's farther east into the Atlantic or almost non-existent.

So let me repeat - NOBODY KNOWS. Things change every day with the weather as fronts come down or ridges nose in from the ocean. You just have to be patient and understand that there is no accurate way to answer your question and anyone who says they can is not only lying to you, they're lying to themselves and everyone else. Some experts can observe patterns after decades (say 30, 40, 50 years) of watching the weather and have a pretty good idea of general patterns. But remember, we're in a NEUTRAL year with no dominant signals whatsoever. Therefore, sometimes there will be troughs (strong or weak) off the east coast, sometimes they will be farther inland, sometimes the entire eastern US could be dominated by high pressure. Just wait and see. Everyone can tell that you're itching to see tropical weather in Norfolk, and maybe you'll get to see some and hopefully be lucky enough not to have any damage. But there are no guarantees and no exacts. The hurricane season lasts for exactly HALF THE YEAR (or 180 days). The weather is different for most of those 180 days, so there is no answer to the question that is keeping you confounded. If people knew the answer to that question they'd have millions of dollars. Trust me.

Btw senor, excellent post.

Steve

[seaswing]

Will:

I just want you to know that I believe your questions lately have reflected a lot of for-thought and are very intelligent, valid questions that a lot of us here would also like the answers to. You are doing a great job and you seem to have more knowledge about hurricanes than you did when you first started posting. Keep up the good work dude!

[JTD]

I'm proud to be a member of this site...

Ditto.

[beachbum_al]

Will,
I am glad you came to this site and glad to have you here. I am amazed at your questions and have learned a lot from the questions you have asked. They are very intelligent questions and concerns.

Go for your dream Will...being a met.

[FritzPaul]

yes we can all learn more together and I know nobody BASICALLY knows but how will the high pressure ridge and the east coast trough affect for the remainder of this 2006 storm season???and if someone gives me the answers I will read and learn alot and maybe become a professional met someday- maybe

The troughs come and go throughout the season usually moving west to east (Zonal). The strength of the Bermuda high and other regional highs tells how long the trough will take to exit the eastern seaboard. The stronger the Bermuda high is then the harder it is for a trough to exit the east coast. As the season latens, the troughs tend to dig further south (You'll notice this with the arrival of fronts usually starting in October.

The troughs can be considered barriers to tropical systems. they cannot cross the trough, but sometimes they can merge with the trough causing the storm to run poleward up the trough. Storms that are further away from the trough tend to curve poleward as the storm nears the trough.

As I mentioned above, late in the season the troughs push further south due to the mounting cold air north of the border.

This is why late season storms in the Caribbean that try to move north will be deflected northeast to eastward depending on the synoptics, and at most cross the southern peninsula of FL or even move through the Caribbean the exact opposite track of what storms do earlier in the season.

I'll let you know by far I'm no expert, but wanted to give you an idea that troughs are not static things that remain for long periods of time.

Hope this helps some, Paul!

[Cookiely]

Could this be retitled East Coast Trough Info for future users on the board. The information and graphics were wonderful.