Models show more active Atlantic

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT FRI AUG 18 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED ABOUT 90 MILES EAST OF
JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARD AND
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST OF GEORGIA...NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND
ADJACENT WATERS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA

[curtadams]

Yep, big SAL outburst Speculating, maybe the GFS and MM5 are predicting SAL will keep this down to 40W, and then the SAL weakens and it develops. Gives us something specific to look for - will the SAL weaken over the next few days, or at least as it goes out into the Atlantic?

[benny]

At this point the system is so far south that any SAL surge wouldn't likely affect it for days and even then no one can seem to tell if it will affect the system. A significant problem here looks to be the character of the disturbance... which isn't much at this point. When I see curved bands then I will be more interested. The GFS/ECMWF are very similar at 12z with their forecasts through the entire runs.. so maybe something will happen.. that gives me some hope.

[ConvergenceZone]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT FRI AUG 18 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED ABOUT 90 MILES EAST OF
JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARD AND
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST OF GEORGIA...NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND
ADJACENT WATERS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA

[HurricaneHunter914]

Maybe in the 10:30pm.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

Nice...

[Meso]

Is it just me or has it become much more organised in the past 12 hours ?? Last image I remember seeing it was scatterd in pieces of convection..


Edit : The new GFS run is coming out at present... So yeah.. for people who are like me... start refreshing

[gopherfan21]

No mention at 530. Best to just wait it out.

[MiamiensisWx]

Overall, the convective organization of the wave has improved, allowing - due to the other favorablow lower shear synoptics and lower pressures - the possibility for gradual development to continue and for the possibility of a slowly developing LLC to emerge. As I mentioned earlier (per Jim Hughes), we have just seen a peak in a solar burst, which is likely already beginning to soon affect the planet's magnetic fields and inosphere soon, allowing a potential burst in tropical activity and related tropical convective activity, as mentioned in another board by Jim Hughes here, due to the increase in solar wind gradient. This could also help aid in convective activity in the deep tropical Atlantic, potentially aiding this wave in slow development.

[SouthFloridawx]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT FRI AUG 18 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED ABOUT 90 MILES EAST OF
JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARD AND
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST OF GEORGIA...NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND
ADJACENT WATERS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA

This will not be mentioned in the TWO until after it's mentioned in the TWD.

Check the 805PM TWD.

[cycloneye]

I wonder why when 94L went up at NRL a few days ago it was more east in longitud than where the area of interest is right now.And now still no invest as it looks better than when 94L was at the same longitud.

[Hurricaneman]

I wonder why when 94L went up at NRL a few days ago it was more east in longitud than where the area of interest is right now.And now still no invest.

maybe they think its ITCZ convection

[cycloneye]

[MiamiensisWx]

A few observations on that loop...

-Note the prevailing moderate anticyclonic flow between 20W and 50W. Such synoptics can prove to be rather favorable for slow convective consolidation and organization, as well as gradual establishment of banding

-As the trough off the Eastern Seaboard pulls out, a new trough approaching from the Great Lakes region and east-central U.S. that may erode the northwestern portion of the Azores-Bermuda High western cell at the middle levels, opening up a potential weakness. The timing of the system, when this incoming trough pulls out, and how the ridge responds back at the middle levels (as this wave may establish into a middle to upper-level stacked system, but that is still too far out and has yet to be seen) may be the key partially as to a potential track if this wave develops

-Note the better balance of lower pressures and less of a shearing monsoonal trough off the African coastline. Weeks earlier, a persistent and strong monsoonal trough existed over the western African continent and out into the eastern Atlantic, creating stiff easterly shear, along with mid-level drier air and SAL, over many waves, so the prevailing convection was mainly related to the ITCZ; now, however, that trough is much less existant, and there is also a better mid-level balance between moisture and drier air, and mid-level SAL has decreased. Overall, these signs all point to the eastern Atlantic starting to heat up and become more favorable for development of waves

If these synoptics hold (and they are showing general signs of more or less doing so), then this really opens up the potential for this wave to develop into our next INVEST and, quite possibly, into our next Atlantic tropical system. The timing of the mid-level west-central Atlantic ridging and troughing also could indicate a potential threat if this system develops.

[txwatcher91]

Overall, the convective organization of the wave has improved, allowing - due to the other favorablow lower shear synoptics and lower pressures - the possibility for gradual development to continue and for the possibility of a slowly developing LLC to emerge. As I mentioned earlier (per Jim Hughes), we have just seen a peak in a solar burst, which is likely already beginning to soon affect the planet's magnetic fields and inosphere soon, allowing a potential burst in tropical activity and related tropical convective activity, as mentioned in another board by Jim Hughes here, due to the increase in solar wind gradient. This could also help aid in convective activity in the deep tropical Atlantic, potentially aiding this wave in slow development.

Agreed. The peak in the >2 MeV electron fluence should allow this wave to quickly develop convective activity over the next day or so. Looks like it could also spawn another wave behind this one that could be something VERY interesting.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Well I know I'm going to start saving images, and surface charts, of this one for my personal collection, just in case. No mention yet on my blog, but I'll be keeping an eye on it this upcoming week, and perhaps beyond. It certainly warrants that much.

[Meso]

So far on the 18z GFS run at 102 hours,compared to the 12z run,there is more vorticity shown and a more defined closed circulation it seems...has it at 1009 at that time.*carries on the waiting game*

[cycloneye]

18z GFS at 102 Hours

[HurricaneHunter914]

Our first CV System?

[MiamiensisWx]

I think this 18Z GFS run may show some significant deepening due to analyzation of the synoptics, climatology, and better establishment of the wave and wave axis. The run so far up to 102 hours or so seems to indicate that.