CMC Showing a hit on N.O.

[fci]

If I lived on the Gulf Coast and saw the thread by WXMAN57 referenced above; I would take it pretty seriously.

I know if a Pro Met puts out something eyeing a model sending a storm my way; I am paying it attention!

[skysummit]

If I lived on the Gulf Coast and saw the thread by WXMAN57 referenced above; I would take it pretty seriously.

I know if a Pro Met puts out something eyeing a model sending a storm my way; I am paying it attention!

Especially when he downplayed almost every system so far this year.

[duris]

We will just have to wait intill more models show it deeloping...Its the model trend that is needed to watch. Also if a strong tropical storm weak hurricane was going to hit New orleans, with the levy's the way they are. Would it top it again?

Supposedly not because there wouldn't likely be a strong storm surge. However, remember that the people saying these things helped screw it all up in the first place. Plus, besides the levees, we could face major (but not Katrina-like) flooding just from a heavy rain event due to debris in our storm gutters and system and the unreplaced motors in the pumping stations.

[wxmann_91]

The NAM never forecasted Alberto to be a major in the Caribbean. The strongest I saw it forecast was about 996mb.

996 on a Global is equivalent to a hurricane.

Now, since wxman57 pointed out that other globals develop it, there is a much better chance. After all, environmental conditions are favorable and now we know that it is more likely not a spurious system spun up out of nowhere.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The NAM never forecasted Alberto to be a major in the Caribbean. The strongest I saw it forecast was about 996mb.

996 on a Global is equivalent to a hurricane.

Now, since wxman57 pointed out that other globals develop it, there is a much better chance. After all, environmental conditions are favorable and now we know that it is more likely not a spurious system spun up out of nowhere.

yes...to a hurricane, but it is not equivalent to a major hurricane. Also, Alberto nearly became a hurricane, so that 996mb was pretty close.

[frederic79]

I am also hesitant to be alarmed about some vitual system that does not even exist. However, some things to think about (just my 2¢)...
If shear is minimal in the Gulf early next week, the stage would be set. Gulf SST's are in the mid to upper 80's now. Water vapor currently shows a fairly moist environment overall. Traditional climo favors development however so far nothing significant has happened. If we actually get a low headed north from Panama, it could (emphasis could) get going rather quickly. Just a thought.