Possible GoM Tropical Threat next Tuesday/Wednesday?

[N2DaTropics]

THE GFS
AND ECMWF BRING A TROPICAL WAVE INTO THE GULF ON WEDNESDAY. (THIS
FEATURE APPARENTLY ORIGINATES FROM A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER
THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA). BOTH MODELS CLOSE OFF A LOW
AND BRING IT TO APALACHICOLA BY THURSDAY EVENING. (IT IS UNUSUAL
FOR BOTH OF THESE MODELS TO BE IN SUCH GOOD AGREEMENT THAT FAR OUT
WITH A TROPICAL SYSTEM THAT DOES NOT EVEN EXIST YET). WE DECIDED
TO "SMOOTH" OUT OUR WIND GRIDS AND JUST SHOW SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10
TO 15 KT ACROSS OUR AREA LATER NEXT WEEK (AS OPPOSED TO SHOWING A
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH 20-30 KT WINDS). IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO
SEE IF THESE MODELS STICK WITH THIS FORECAST IN THE NEXT FEW RUNS.



This is the exact same thing they were saying this morning, as a matter of fact, it appears as though they simply used the cut and paste just as I did...

[Johnny]

Of course the NHC hasn't mentioned it yet. Correct me if I'm wrong but have y'all ever heard the NHC possible development when nothing was on the map yet?

[chrisnnavarre]

I think I finally see a little bit of a counter-clockwise twist just north of Panama. Don't know if it's mid-level or what. But definently there.

[Johnny]

Can you post a link to the image you are looking at Chris?

[StormsAhead]

I think I finally see a little bit of a counter-clockwise twist just north of Panama. Don't know if it's mid-level or what. But definently there.

There is a permanent low pressure area around Panama and Columbia. The competition with this low is the reason we don't normally see storms developing too far south in the Caribbean (especially until late in the season, when the low weakens), and also why there is always a huge amount of convection in that area. So don't focus too much on any circulation close to South America right now.

The chance of development is probably going to be the best when the next tropical wave hits this area late Sunday and Monday. This will be the first time that a tropical wave will be pulled northward into the GOM, since trade winds in the Caribbean should relax. Once that area moves away from South America, development could occur.

[johngaltfla]

Wow wxman57....when you start a thread like that, you make my eyebrows bounce a little.

I have to agree. For wxman57 to post this caused me to click on this thread first. If we do see development and these SSTs hold until next week, there is potential for a major storm to ramp up and quickly.

Thanks for the heads up wxman57!

[Stratosphere747]

Can you post a link to the image you are looking at Chris?

Johnny,

I assume he is using the GHC site...

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

This could be another option...

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/Rmsdsol/COS.html

[tailgater]

This little ULL could be a player in any potential development.
http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES ... xNpkCW.jpg

[Stormcenter]

Wow wxman57....when you start a thread like that, you make my eyebrows bounce a little.

I have to agree. For wxman57 to post this caused me to click on this thread first. If we do see development and these SSTs hold until next week, there is potential for a major storm to ramp up and quickly.

Thanks for the heads up wxman57!

But the same could be said for the next four weeks as we are about to hit the peak of the season.

[tailgater]

A few T-storms firing in the area where some of the models where originating the system in question.
http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrir.html

[TSmith274]

There is a permanent low pressure area around Panama and Columbia. The competition with this low is the reason we don't normally see storms developing too far south in the Caribbean (especially until late in the season, when the low weakens), and also why there is always a huge amount of convection in that area. So don't focus too much on any circulation close to South America right now.

Does this naturally occuring low pressure ever corrupt the models? I'm guessing "no". Anyone?

[chrisnnavarre]

I awake and I see it, just north of Panama like the models said. How long is the shear to the north going to last???


http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov

All we need now is a little stationary movement today, and a little organization. Then after the shear relaxes some northward drift. BING BING BING....

it will be on then.....

[Nimbus]

That little ULL that was near Jamaica is rolling west and it looks like high pressure will start to push north. There has been an initial delay in development.

What is the track tendency over the last several runs has the future steering remained about the same despite the delay?

[Extremeweatherguy]

JB thinks whatever gets going will be an issue for the western Gulf (according to his pattern overview last night) in the Wed - Fri time period. Seems like this will not be a central Gulf hit (according to him).

(and this is assuming that something even develops)

[beachbum_al]

One of our local channel did mention it last night. I think it was NBC in Mobile. Just mention that some of the models are showing something in the Northern Gulf by next week.

http://www.wpmi.com/mediacenter/default_hurricane.aspx?navCatId=2354

I think this link will take you to his live broadcast. I am using my husband's laptop at the Gulf right now so excuse my typos etc. yes i am at the GOM. It is nice here right now!

Here is his blog!
http://community.wpmi.com/blogs/davids_weather_blog/

[skysummit]

JB thinks whatever gets going will be an issue for the western Gulf (according to his pattern overview last night) in the Wed - Fri time period. Seems like this will not be a central Gulf hit (according to him).

(and this is assuming that something even develops)

It will all be where the trough axis is...IF something does get going. That trough axis will play the major role in the direction this could take.

[southerngale]

JB thinks whatever gets going will be an issue for the western Gulf (according to his pattern overview last night) in the Wed - Fri time period. Seems like this will not be a central Gulf hit (according to him).

(and this is assuming that something even develops)

I thought high pressure over the western GOM and eastern GOM was supposed to create a weakness in between. If that's still the case, I don't see how it could affect the western GOM, UNLESS he's talking about the SW GOM, perhaps Mexico. (assuming anything even develops)

[skysummit]

Our local mets here for the first time recently began talking about a pattern shift next week that will sort of "open the north central gulf up for business."

Looking down in the southern Carribean, I think this may be the area of concern already starting to show its face. Notice you can already see some curvature to the cloud pattern.

[Lindaloo]

Oh great!

[MortisFL]

Once the shear relaxes to its north, this could get its act together in a hurry.