Models show more active Atlantic

[cycloneye]

18z GFS at 126 Hours

1006 mbs

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

First 3-D Image from NOAA, of our little wave:

http://www.nnvl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/index. ... ser=111152

[cycloneye]

18z GFS at 156 Hours

1003 mbs.Avoids the Lesser Antilles islands,in other words a fish unless it goes to Bermuda.

[miamicanes177]

what is causing this to not move west into the caribbean?

[cycloneye]

what is causing this to not move west into the caribbean?

Weakeness of the ridge.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

A hole between the two highs...With the system passing to the north of the western Atlantic and the Azores high. Which pulls the system northward. But who knows the high could be stronger, which would keep it more westward.

[sevenleft]

18z GFS at 156 Hours

1003 mbs.Avoids the Lesser Antilles islands,in other words a fish unless it goes to Bermuda.

GFS has a strong 500mb ridge to the north of it, and a strong ULL centered to the east of PR.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Indeed Matt-hurricanewatcher. Still way to far out to be sure.

[MiamiensisWx]

Personally, I would rather be expecting a slightly more westward track if this wave develops. The position of the middle to upper-level trough approaching from the east-central U.S., as well as the position of the west-central Atlantic cell of the Azores-Bermuda High complex, could indicate the mid-level ridging may build a bit further westward as the trough moves in and later pulls out, allowing a bit more westward track. The synoptics would lend support to the possibility of a more westward track than indicated so far, too. These synoptics would cause a possible ULL near Puerto Rico to weaken and/or retrograde westward in general, allowing a more westward track.

[wxman57]

Here's the 288hr. 1003mb and heading out to sea:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/GFS288.gif

I cheated & used GARP. We get the model data before it's posted online.

[cycloneye]

Here's the 288hr. 1003mb and heading out to sea:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/GFS288.gif

I cheated & used GARP. We get the model data before it's posted online.

57,close to Bermuda there to their east.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I would say the first shortwave at at 45-48 north/50 west will form the weakness...Breaking the two highs. Theres another wave of energy at 60 and again at 70 west. More like a surface trough/frontal area. These could enforce these troughs recurving the cyclone northeastward at 276 to 292 hours time frame. But also once these move out the ridge to the north will likely rebuild...Which could pull the system back west or west-northwestward. We will see.

[ConvergenceZone]

Here's the 288hr. 1003mb and heading out to sea:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/GFS288.gif

I cheated & used GARP. We get the model data before it's posted online.

well, maybe we will be lucky and every single storm that develops the remainder of this shortened season will be a fish storm....CV storms rarely make landfalls in the USA anyway, although once in a great while it happens....

[Meso]

Hrm,the second system at 384 hours seems to be on a more dangerous path than it's showing the current system.

[cycloneye]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Here is the complete 384 loop.It makes the system a big fish hurricane avoiding the Caribbean and Bermuda.But look at the end of the loop what new comes.

[willjnewton]

what does the 18z gfs forecast model run predict after 180 hours???

[deltadog03]

well, this might have to be watched...GFS LOOOOOVES to recurve everything out there.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The high will liklely be stronger(Normally is)...In the trough to the north is far to the north. I think this might turn more west-northwest-northwest for a day or so then turn westward like frances,Andrew. Then we will have to watch how much troughfyness remains off the eastcoast with our friend 93L. Just like the h storm of 2003...Which allowed a weakness to form to turn isabel to the northwest...I think its likely to be gone with the midwest/southeast US high pluging the whole.

This system looks good to me right now. With nice outflow and convection forming. SAL weak,Shear weak. Heck its got a fair to good chance at developing. I will likely give you what I think on strength later.

[willjnewton]

never mind the 384 hour loop is being posted, thanks

[ConvergenceZone]

Fish or no fish....I just want something to track!