Nothing anytime soon as long as tropics look like this

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boca
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Nothing anytime soon as long as tropics look like this

#1 Postby boca » Fri Aug 18, 2006 9:26 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

The experts have been dicussing a turn around within the next one to two weeks. Lets see what happens but I think people are grabbing for straws.
Last edited by boca on Fri Aug 18, 2006 9:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#2 Postby miamicanes177 » Fri Aug 18, 2006 9:28 pm

That is a very pretty loop. We need a break this year. And with gas prices out of sight a hurricane would just make matters worse.
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#3 Postby boca » Fri Aug 18, 2006 9:30 pm

Very true and I was concerned about getting my hurricane shutters installed so late this year,so far my luck is holding. Sept 23rd is target date.
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#4 Postby willjnewton » Fri Aug 18, 2006 9:31 pm

but wait a minute, I thought that the tropical atlantic will get more active in the next two weeks and I thought this is Normal for it to be Quiet because it is only the 19th of august, whats going on???did something change?
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Re: Nothing anytime soon as long as tropics look like this

#5 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 18, 2006 9:33 pm

boca wrote:http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

People have been dicussing a turn around within the next one to two weeks. Lets see what happens but I think people are grabbing for straws.


boca,I haved seen these words (By 1-2 weeks things will heat up) and those words I haved seen them many times since late July.When you say people boca you mean the experts right?
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#6 Postby boca » Fri Aug 18, 2006 9:34 pm

no just alot of shear.
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#7 Postby boca » Fri Aug 18, 2006 9:37 pm

Yes Luis I edited the thread to convey what I meant.
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Re: Nothing anytime soon as long as tropics look like this

#8 Postby miamicanes177 » Fri Aug 18, 2006 9:38 pm

cycloneye wrote:When you say people boca you mean the experts right?
I'm not boca but Dr. Jeff Masters believes a switch will be turned and a hurricane will form by August 26th. He expects a very active September. Conditions will need to change for anything to form however. Shear will rip everything to shreds. You have 30-40kts of shear all in the caribbean and 20kts in the gulf. It's hard to get very active with those conditions.
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#9 Postby StormWarning1 » Fri Aug 18, 2006 9:39 pm

willjnewton wrote:but wait a minute, I thought that the tropical atlantic will get more active in the next two weeks and I thought this is Normal for it to be Quiet because it is only the 19th of august, whats going on???did something change?


Many seasons do not become active until after middle of August. But, if August ends without another named storm I would not expect to see more than five the rest of the year. We can start a 10 day count down on Monday.
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#10 Postby miamicanes177 » Fri Aug 18, 2006 9:41 pm

StormWarning1 wrote:But, if August ends without another named storm I would not expect to see more than five the rest of the year. We can start a 10 day count down on Monday.
And Chris was decalred a tropical storm at 4am on August 1st. We were very close to having 0 named storms thus far in August.
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#11 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Fri Aug 18, 2006 9:44 pm

StormWarning1 wrote:
willjnewton wrote:but wait a minute, I thought that the tropical atlantic will get more active in the next two weeks and I thought this is Normal for it to be Quiet because it is only the 19th of august, whats going on???did something change?


Many seasons do not become active until after middle of August. But, if August ends without another named storm I would not expect to see more than five the rest of the year. We can start a 10 day count down on Monday.
If we do not have another named storm by September 1st, I would be amazed.
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#12 Postby boca » Fri Aug 18, 2006 9:46 pm

The shear in the Caribbean is simular to conditions seen during the winter months with high cirrus pushing rapidly to the NE.
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#13 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 18, 2006 9:49 pm

Imagine the rest of August and the whole month of september without any named systems,the kids would be running to the hills. :lol:
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#14 Postby Stratosphere747 » Fri Aug 18, 2006 9:52 pm

Sometimes nature has a funny way of balancing things out...

She owes us one after the last few years..;)
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#15 Postby Air Force Met » Fri Aug 18, 2006 9:56 pm

That's pretty amazing for mid-August.

King TUTT (pictures Steve Martin in his mind).
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rainstorm

#16 Postby rainstorm » Fri Aug 18, 2006 10:09 pm

derek said its like 1997 in the carib. in 1997 there was some activity til the end of july, then the season just shut down
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#17 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 18, 2006 10:13 pm

rainstorm wrote:derek said its like 1997 in the carib. in 1997 there was some activity til the end of july, then the season just shut down


# Name Dates Wind Pres Cat
1 Tropical Storm ANA 30 JUN-04 JUL 40 1000 -
2 Hurricane BILL 11 JUL-13 JUL 65 987 1
3 Tropical Storm CLAUDETTE 13-16 JUL 40 1003 -
4 Hurricane DANNY 16-26 JUL 70 1
5 Tropical Depression FIVE 17-19 JUL 30 1008 -
6 Hurricane ERIKA 03-15 SEP 110 946 3
7 Tropical Storm FABIAN 07-08 OCT 40 1003 -
8 Tropical Storm GRACE 16-17 OCT 40 999 -


The 1997 activity extended until mid October.
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#18 Postby johngaltfla » Fri Aug 18, 2006 10:27 pm

Could this be the year that dupes everyone into a false sense of security? I look at 1930 then the years following and just go "gulp" as we really went downhill then, and considering we really don't know what other systems forms and died, the activity could be a lot higher.

http://www.weather.unisys.com/hurricane ... index.html
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rainstorm

#19 Postby rainstorm » Fri Aug 18, 2006 10:49 pm

cycloneye wrote:
rainstorm wrote:derek said its like 1997 in the carib. in 1997 there was some activity til the end of july, then the season just shut down


# Name Dates Wind Pres Cat
1 Tropical Storm ANA 30 JUN-04 JUL 40 1000 -
2 Hurricane BILL 11 JUL-13 JUL 65 987 1
3 Tropical Storm CLAUDETTE 13-16 JUL 40 1003 -
4 Hurricane DANNY 16-26 JUL 70 1
5 Tropical Depression FIVE 17-19 JUL 30 1008 -
6 Hurricane ERIKA 03-15 SEP 110 946 3
7 Tropical Storm FABIAN 07-08 OCT 40 1003 -
8 Tropical Storm GRACE 16-17 OCT 40 999 -


2 weak ts's and 1 cane for aug sept and oct combined is pretty much a seasonal shutdown. at the very least, that is extremely inactive
The 1997 activity extended until mid October.
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Scorpion

#20 Postby Scorpion » Fri Aug 18, 2006 10:50 pm

Getting sick of this. I'm beginning to feel like throwing in the towel. Oh well, no hurricanes means less time tracking and more time for other things.
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