Models show more active Atlantic

[rainstorm]

i am doubtful about how active the atlantic is going to get

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/special_gifs/trop_lant4col.gif

upper lows are everywhere and that ull west of the azores seems to have become a permanent feature. you can also see incredible wind shear screaming across the caribbean. nothing could make it across the atlantic right now

[sma10]

i am doubtful about how active the atlantic is going to get

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/special_gifs/trop_lant4col.gif

upper lows are everywhere and that ull west of the azores seems to have become a permanent feature.

West of the Azores!!

That feature is way, way too far north to effect a wave down near 10N. Now you're just intentionally trying to be contrary, rainstorm. Stop acting like a newbie.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT FRI AUG 18 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED ABOUT 90 MILES EAST OF
JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD
AND WEAKEN. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST OF GEORGIA...NORTHEAST FLORIDA
AND ADJACENT WATERS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

A SMALL AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD
MOVING TROPICAL WAVE HAS FORMED ABOUT 450 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE
FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA

[miamicanes177]

Highly unfavorable winds...shear wins again...thank goodness

[kenl01]

Yep, the year of the shear continues !

[EDR1222]

i am doubtful about how active the atlantic is going to get

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/special_gifs/trop_lant4col.gif

upper lows are everywhere and that ull west of the azores seems to have become a permanent feature. you can also see incredible wind shear screaming across the caribbean. nothing could make it across the atlantic right now

I agree that the presentations, especially on water vapor imagery seem to be a little unusual fo this time of year. It will be very interesting to see how long it persists. There was a year, I cannot recall which one but it was fairly recent, where there was little to no activity in August I believe. I am sure someone will chime in with the information, but then it ramped up in September if I remember correctly.

[miamicanes177]

If we can make it 3 more weeks with 3 named storms then we'll be in great shape in my opinion. Everyday that goes by is 1 less day to worry about.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The season from down under keeps on going. Lets see if this can form down the road...

[Derek Ortt]

the Caribbean is starting to remind me of 1997, though the tropical Atlantic looks a lot more favorable than that year

[rainstorm]

i think that ull west of the azores will have to vamoose to get the atlantic active. it is helping steer the dust and dry air well south, which is as we speak, choking the wave off africa. lets hope we have a season like 1997

[rainstorm]

i was just looking at twc, and it appears to me another big upper low is about to be squeezed off and move east to west across the atlantic

[fci]

Highly unfavorable winds...shear wins again...thank goodness

Are you referring to what is said in the TWO?

It is referring to the disturbance 450 NE of the Leeard Islands, not the African Wave.

Wouldn't conditions now not necessarily be relevant several days from now?

[miamicanes177]

Are you referring to what is said in the TWO?

It is referring to the disturbance 450 NE of the Leeard Islands, not the African Wave.

Wouldn't conditions now not necessarily be relevant several days from now?

Conditions have been highly unfavorable this entire season, and whatever develops of the African wave will be sheared apart after about 55 west. That is assuming something were to even develop.

[StormWarning1]

If we can make it 3 more weeks with 3 named storms then we'll be in great shape in my opinion. Everyday that goes by is 1 less day to worry about.

If we get to Sept 1st with no more storms the rest of the season should produce no more than 5. Just 8 total for the whole season

[EDR1222]

The numerous upper level lows are interesting. Maybe some of our experts can chime and discuss why there have been so many occurences of them this year and whether it is normal or unusual to have them be so prevalent and persistent.

[miamicanes177]

you need to take a second look at that map

[Scorpion]

you need to take a second look at that map

My bad. I deleted the post. I at first thought that people were thinking shear was unfavorable for the new wave off the African coast.

[fci]

Are you referring to what is said in the TWO?

It is referring to the disturbance 450 NE of the Leeard Islands, not the African Wave.

Wouldn't conditions now not necessarily be relevant several days from now?

Conditions have been highly unfavorable this entire season, and whatever develops of the African wave will be sheared apart after about 55 west. That is assuming something were to even develop.

Hey I like your reasoning and want you to be correct.
However "this entire season" has NOT been August/September; the height of the season.
I think most bets are off going forward for the next 30-40 days or so.
Climatologically, I think that shear lessens considerably during the "prime" season we are entering.

I hope that this season bucks the traditional climatology and stays so quiet that people continue to "gush" over Invests and argue whether 93L should have been called a Tropical Depression!!!!

Oh, and the Pro Mets like AFM and Derek get terribly bored and Senorpepr does not have to give us many "date" and "storms brought to you by letter "-" !!!!!!

[Scorpion]

And the 00z GFS...shows nothing!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It don't suprize me at all Scorpion...It really doe's not any more this season. We are lucky we got Hector for the eastern Pacific. Because Derek ortt is right this season is acting like 1997(Even so he said caribbean only). Let me say that the rest of the Atlantic is acting like 2002. Witch still had 12 named storms in lili and isidor.