Nothing anytime soon as long as tropics look like this

[rainstorm]

Could this be the year that dupes everyone into a false sense of security? I look at 1930 then the years following and just go "gulp" as we really went downhill then, and considering we really don't know what other systems forms and died, the activity could be a lot higher.

http://www.weather.unisys.com/hurricane ... index.html

we started an active period in 1995 which should last several decades. even so, years like this will still happen in an overall active period

[ConvergenceZone]

Getting sick of this. I'm beginning to feel like throwing in the towel. Oh well, no hurricanes means less time tracking and more time for other things.

I hear yea. I'm the same way. One minute the waves look great and I proclaim that the season looks like it will really get cooking, the next day I'm eating crow as the waves fizzle.

If this wave that just emerged doesn't develop nor the big one over Africa doesn't develop, Im' putting away the tracking maps. I mean, these are both good looking waves and any other year one of these would develop.... and since boca mentioned the extreme shear that's all over the place(even though it's late August) , then perhaps it might be a season shutdown with perhaps a tropical storm or 2 in September. However, I think I want to see what these 2 waves do first.

[EDR1222]

Good point Rainstorm. Just because we are in an active phase, it is perfectly normal to see a slow season here and there. Not saying that is the case this year, but if it were to happen it would not be out of the ordinary. I think after last year, the Global Warming topic really fueled the idea that hurricane seasons would become increasingly hyperactive even though globally, hurricane activity has been slightly lower than normal recently. Last year, much like 1933, everything came together. There were alot more factors at play than just warm sst's.

[stormtruth]

Storms will be coming soon. Once everyone is completely negative then the hurricanes will start to appear.

[gilbert88]

Storms will be coming soon. Once everyone is completely negative then the hurricanes will start to appear.

Just like last year. The board was almost unbearable to read during the Irene-José """""lull""""".

[Extremeweatherguy]

It is going to be funny to look back on these threads after this season turns out to be above normal.

[BUD]

Here is a thought.After last year the government boys had a enough and got HARRP running like it suppose to???What happens if we do not get any hurricanes this year.It will make you want to think.Only a thought.

[MGC]

This is nice. Last year I felt like a duck in a shooting gallery. Hope it stays quite till next season.....MGC

[Cyclenall]

Storms will be coming soon. Once everyone is completely negative then the hurricanes will start to appear.

I swear I read the same message months ago!

Yes, if something doesn't form by September 1st, then I will stop watching the tropics until a TD forms via the NHC.

[Emmett_Brown]

Wow... the TUTT is impressive. It's rare to see so many ULLs in one frame. I think i counted 5 ULLs, all embedded in one giant TUTT.

I have not been tracking this, but how have the models been with forecasting the formation of the ULLs... have the models been forecasting this type of ULL activity in advance?

[Emmett_Brown]

The 48 hour 300 mb GFS shows the TUTT less dominant in the Carribean. Wonder if it will verify.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/3hh_48.gif

[TampaFl]

Here is a thought.After last year the government boys had a enough and got HARRP running like it suppose to???What happens if we do not get any hurricanes this year.It will make you want to think.Only a thought.

What does HARRP stand for


Robert

[caribepr]

Amazing how many perspectives are on this board, a thought that occurs to me often. We in the tropics can't stop watching just because there is no big active system approaching, as *just* a wave can result in a big disruption of daily life (the one a couple of days ago on PR, flooding, landslides, etc - versus not a drop here on Culebra; we literally watched the wave go around us).
But if excitement in tracking is your thing, sorry, I can only go with Scorpion's words and say I hope you find LOTS of OTHER interesting things to do!

[cycloneye]

Peak Countdown

The clock is ticking towards the end of the peak. But seriously,it's a reallity that as the days continue to pass without any developments,it looks more and more like an average season.

[Innotech]

Here is a thought.After last year the government boys had a enough and got HARRP running like it suppose to???What happens if we do not get any hurricanes this year.It will make you want to think.Only a thought.

What does HARRP stand for


Robert

HAARP stands for High Frequency Active Auroral Research Program.

It can create auroras, but I doubt it would prevent hurricanes. even if it did, that would be stupid, because stopping one natural process will only worsen others. The resultant disaster might be even worse.

[Air Force Met]

It is going to be funny to look back on these threads after this season turns out to be above normal.

It could cerainly stillbe above average in terms of the long-term 50 year average...but let's face it...when looking at the short term cycle average we are in (since 1995)...it is beginning to look more and more likely that it will fall below that average.

It will take a WHILE for those upper level winds to relax. It looks like May out there. Now with another blast of dry air coming off the African Cont., that will also take a couple of weeks to work it's way out.

Sure...you are going to get some close in development...and weak TS's and cat 1 hurricanes have the potential to pop up...but the atmopshere has been hostile for MONSTERS all season...and that hasn't changed.

There is a rule in forecasting. IT's called persistence. Unless you see something changing...keep forecasting the same thing. Right now...there are no signs of any major changes in this pattern. IF anything...it's worse.

We might get close to average numbers wise...but if the pattern doesn't change...I dare say they will be a bunch of Chris'...They get going and then get the stuffing sheared out of them.

[willjnewton]

update, the sea surface temperature anomaly MaP, that was updated today on the 19th of august, said the eastern pacific is gaining some cool spots or its Neutral,..and it shocked me when I saw that map this morning,...so I foresee that the tropical atlantic will get more active Rapidly in the next few weeks..

[Thunder44]

It is going to be funny to look back on these threads after this season turns out to be above normal.

It could cerainly stillbe above average in terms of the long-term 50 year average...but let's face it...when looking at the short term cycle average we are in (since 1995)...it is beginning to look more and more likely that it will fall below that average.

It will take a WHILE for those upper level winds to relax. It looks like May out there. Now with another blast of dry air coming off the African Cont., that will also take a couple of weeks to work it's way out.

Sure...you are going to get some close in development...and weak TS's and cat 1 hurricanes have the potential to pop up...but the atmopshere has been hostile for MONSTERS all season...and that hasn't changed.

There is a rule in forecasting. IT's called persistence. Unless you see something changing...keep forecasting the same thing. Right now...there are no signs of any major changes in this pattern. IF anything...it's worse.

We might get close to average numbers wise...but if the pattern doesn't change...I dare say they will be a bunch of Chris'...They get going and then get the stuffing sheared out of them.

I certainly can see us getting 10 to 15 named storms without any of them becoming major hurricanes. The upper-level enviornment is hostile but things system seem to want to develop. If this pattern doesn't change by the end of month it probably won't be changing much next month either.

[Frank2]

It's true that last year there was a 3-4 week semi-lull that many of us (myself included) thought would be a reflection of the rest of the season, but, the difference between last year and now is very significant - during the lull period, we already had 9 named storms, 2 being major hurricanes, as opposed to this year, when, so far, we've only had 3 weak tropical storms (thankfully)...

True, true, much can change quickly, and, is why I'd never say "the season is over" - since I don't know the future, but, if September 1 does arrive without another named system, then...

Several mentioned the current shear - it is very true, that the current shear across the Caribbean is similar to that seen during the winter months. There have been many seasons (the last two, for example), where shear was light in that area - not true this year, and, is more typical of an El Nino pattern...

Frank

P.S. Northern Maine is forecast to have lows in the upper 40s this week...

[Scorpion]

This hurricane season is shaping up like last winter. It had high expectations, but it was a major bust.