I Think We Are Watching the Wrong Wave

[MWatkins]

Look back over Africa! Hurry!

Yep. I really do believe we are following the wrong feature.

The 12Z NOGAPS has development in 3 days...near 30W. It shows up nicely in the 500MB charts.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/w ... 00&tau=072

The 0Z GFS at the same veryfy time has a cyclone getting started slightly east of that

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_060m.gif

Satellite imagery from this evening shows the tropical wave of recent interest near 20W:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/met8/eatl/avn-l.jpg

Tropical waves typically move westward at 6 degrees of longitude per day at this time of year. So in 72 hours from now...whatever is left of the wave at 20W should be at 38W or so...and may even be further along than that given the strong trades.

This wave is doing it's job. It is pulling more moisture into the ITCZ and working as an offensive lineman...a blocker if you will...getting things ready for the wave next in line to take all of the glory.

The next system is much bigger and shows a significant circulation envelope in the modeling. The NOGAPS...GFS and Euro are all jumping on it.

I submit...for review...that we are keying in on the wrong feature. It's the next wave that has the most potential.

I am not completely writing off the one near 20...it may develop. It is the last 3rd of August. But...I think the one behind it is the one we are all seeing in the modeling.

MW

[SouthFloridawx]

Hey mike I was wondering the same thing looking over africa tonight on the Satelite after I got home.

Good Call.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

Great post as always Watkins! Hope you give us another update tomorrow

[SouthFloridawx]

Canadian in agreement also.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/cmc ... urrent.png

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Yeah agree MW...Nice work! At least this has some model support beside the gfs. I would never ever trust the gfs along pass 24 hours with out another models support. In really so after the gulf system it was showing, and the system its been trying to develop for days. I agree with you about the first wave moisting the airmass in front of it. Buts its a wait in see game,,,I would like to see a trend with the Gfs,Cmc,Nogaps, ect. Also this seems to be at a higher lat about perfect....If it go to far north then it runs into cold water. Even so its proven mainly over in the western pacific systems can develop near the equater. You need a monsoon trough or a very strong wave to do it. But any ways a wave at 10 to 12 north is perfect.

I would give this some chance at becoming a cyclone.

[Derek Ortt]

One possible problem with that second wave doing anything significant (and I mean a hurricane)

It will likely produce a SAL outbreak if it emerges as strong as it currently is, and there are no significant waves behind it. I could very weel develop, but have some initial troubles until it breaks free

[Hyperstorm]

The tropical wave about to move off Africa is a very strong system with a huge circulation, but I think this one will not develop. Why?

I think that it is located too far north near 15N and SSTs near that area are only marginal. The wave we were watching several days ago that was mentioned in the TWO by the NHC just off the coast of Africa was located right around this same latitude. If it can somehow move WSW during the next couple of days, then the chances of it becoming a tropical cyclone will skyrocket.

As of now, I'm voting for no development...

[Sanibel]

If you'll notice the waves in the Atlantic are staying "lit" a little bit longer than before. Just a subtle change in favorability.

[Stephanie]

Makes sense to me Mike! Good call!

I agree Sanibel that the waves coming off of the coast are now holding together instead of dissapating. I think it's only the beginning.

[x-y-no]

Look back over Africa! Hurry!

Yep. I really do believe we are following the wrong feature.

...

MW

Funny, I just got in this morning and first thing I did was look at the 0Z ECMWF run (the Euro suddenly started developing a system with the 12Z run yesterday) and I said to myself ... hey, this is too darn slow ... I bet this is the next wave in line ...

Was just coming here to post about that and what do I see?

I tell ya ... you gotta get up earlier in the morning to pull a scoop on the folks at storm2k!

Jan

[SouthFloridawx]

Could this wave possibly serve to block any sal or dry air into the one we have been keying in on? The sacrifice wave?