Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Wow,what a night here too,as thunder and lighting with heavy rain came thru San Juan mainly before midnight.After that more light to moderate rain has fallen.Winds haved not been too strong.

[bvigal]

Good morning, neighbors! I've been sick and not on for a few days, so briefly trying to catch up this morning before leave for church and full day of activities - which I hope I'm up to! It's Festival here in the BVI.
We have some nice sunshine this morning after some scattered squalls moved through during the night and early morning. All eyes are on 32W 91L! It's 8:45am, where is the 8am TWD????

Wind from the ESE (110 degrees) at 9 MPH (8 KT)
Visibility 10 mile(s)
Sky conditions clear
Temperature 82.9 F (28.3 C)
Dew Point 75.0 F (23.9 C)
Relative Humidity 77%
Pressure (altimeter) 30 in. Hg (1015 hPa)
Pressure tendency 0.04 inches (1.4 hPa) higher than three hours ago

[cycloneye]

Good morning.Partly cloudy this morning with pleasant temps.But a wave will move thru starting tonight and continuing tommorow so expect wet weather.But all eyes are farther east were 91L is organizing.

[cycloneye]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 091035
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
635 AM AST WED AUG 9 2006

.DISCUSSION...
BACK SIDE OF TUTT LOW TO OUR NE DROPPING IN ON THE LOCAL AREA
THIS MORNING...PROMOTING SINKING MOTION...AND COMBINING WITH THE
DOMINANT SAL CONTINUING TO STREAM THROUGH THE REGION TO PRODUCE A
DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERE. PW VALUES CONTINUE TO PLUMMET BELOW 1.5
INCHES OVERNIGHT PER SOUNDER OBSERVATIONS. LITTLE MOISTURE APPEARS
UPSTREAM IN THE SHORT TERM...AND GFS FORECASTING A DRYING TREND IN
THE LOW LEVELS TODAY. A DRY HAZY AND BREEZY FORECAST IS THUS IN
ORDER FOR THE DAY AS THE MID SUMMER DROUGHT CONTINUES.

MONSOONAL TROUGH SEGMENT AND EMBEDDED LOW CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE
WWD ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC THIS MORNING...WITH A SW TO NE
TILT OF AXIS ROUGHLY CENTERED ALONG 54 WEST. DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT
OF SAL FROM THE NW AND W...AND UNTIL RECENTLY...STABLE SOUTH
ATLANTIC AIR INGESTED INTO SOUTH SIDE OF MONSOON TROUGH...CONTINUE
TO DENY ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM.
NO TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS THEREFORE EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION OF WARM DEEP WATER
FROM NBC RING EDDIES IS SCATTERED ABOUT THE EXTREME EAST CARIB AND
TROPICAL ATLANTIC EAST OF THE WINDWARDS...AND THIS MAY OFFER SOME
MOISTURE INFLUX FOR THIS SYSTEM AS IT PASSES OVER TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH THIS IS CERTAINLY NOT A CLASSIC
AEW...WE ARE CALLING THIS A TROPICAL WAVE FOR PUBLIC
CONSUMPTION...TO AVOID A LONG DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE. THIS "WAVE-LIKE" FEATURE IS FORECAST TO
MOVE MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH AEJ SEGMENT ACROSS THE TOP TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA FOR ANOTHER SURGE IN WINDS...AND LIKELY A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
SEEMINGLY ENDLESS STREAM OF SAL AND ASSOCIATED AFRICAN DUST.

SYNPOTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE TROPICAL AND SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC PAST
TWO WEEKS HAS ALLOWED FOR STRONG POSITIVE TILTING OF AEW AND
STRETCHING AND SHEARING OF NV WAVE ENERGY...YIELDING NON CLASSIC
WAVE STRUCTURE. WE HAVE FELT SOMEWHAT FORCED TO REFER TO THESE
SHEARED VORT LOBES OR PIECES OF THE WAVES AS TROPICAL WAVES IN
LOCAL PRODUCTS TO SIMPLIFY EXPLANATION.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGING E TO W ACROSS ATLC MAINTAIN A
RELATIVELY ZONAL AEJ ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC...AND COMBINING
WITH PERSISTENT BERMUDA HIGH TO MAINTAIN A STRONGER THAN NORMAL
TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION. RECENT SSMI AND QUIKSCAT
PASSES...A VERY FEW LOCAL OBSERVATIONS...AND MY OBS FROM IN THE
WATER SUGGEST THAT WE HAVE BEEN UNDERFORECASTING LOCAL MARINE
CONDITIONS TFOR PORTIONS OF THE PAST FEW DAYS. I HAVE DECIDED TO
USE GFS90 WINDS AS OPPOSED TO GFS40 FOR MARINE FORECAST AS THIS
HIGHER SIGMA LEVEL FORECAST FROM GFS90 SEEMS TO BE MORE ACCURATE.
A BRIEF DECREASE IN WIND AND SEAS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...DOWN AROUND 5 KNOTS FROM YESTERDAY... BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE
IS SEEN WITH NEXT APPROACHING "WAVE" ON TUESDAY. THIS WIND SURGE
AND ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE LOCAL
CARIB WATERS MORE SIGNIFICANTLY THAN THE ATLC...AS "WAVE" PASSES
SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. A MORE TYPICAL 15 TO 20 KNOT TRADE
WIND FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
ALLOWING LOCAL SEAS TO DECREASE TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS. SEA YOU IN
THE WATER.


Good morning,the above is what we can expect as the strong wave passes to our south.

[cycloneye]

AWCA82 TJSJ 092014 CCA
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
400 PM AST WED AUG 9 2006

PARTLY CLOUDY...AND HAZY CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE
DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR SHOWED NO SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY IN OR
AROUND THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS A DRIER AND
STABLE AIR MOVED INTO THE AREA. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWED AREAS
OF SAHARAN DUST SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL THEREFORE
MAINTAIN HAZY SKIES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THE WIND WAS FROM THE
EAST NORTHEAST AROUND 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONALLY HIGHER GUSTS.

AN EAST TO WEST ORIENTED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH
OF THE LOCAL AREA...WITH STRONG RIDGING SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL
REGION...WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN AN OVERALL
DRY AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION. A FAIRLY STRONG
TROPICAL WAVE APPROXIMATELY 200 MILES EAST OF THE TO WINDWARD
ISLANDS AND NEAR 58 WEST...CONTINUED TO MOVE WEST AROUND 20 MPH.

THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND ENTER
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...THEN
ENTER THE LOCAL REGION LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED JUST
NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TODAY...WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT
WEST OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE COMBINATION OF UPPER LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH AND THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL THEREFORE CREATE AN UNSTABLE AND
WETTER WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATE THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

SOME BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS ONE OR TWO OF THE
LOCAL ISLANDS OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AS THE TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES ENTERS LOCAL REGION.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS OVERNIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER...SEAS CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE
LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING SHOWERS WITH
THUNDERSTORMS AND SQUALLS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC AND SOUTHWEST
OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS ARE URGED TO EXERCISE
CAUTION ELSEWHERE.

$$
RAM




Effects from 91L wave for the area.

[caribepr]

According to the discussion from this morning, not much seems to be going on. But according to the way the Caribbean loop looks...we're in for some big rain. Or am I once again seeing the movement and misinterpreting it?

[caribepr]

Wow...we're in the danger box! I was just at the beach, lovely and calm, and now it is lightning with thunder, so checked out the radar and there is the box, us, Vieques, a slim bit of PR and a touch of St. Thomas...wonder what that means?

[cycloneye]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 070941
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
541 AM AST THU SEP 7 2006

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE IS MIGRATING WEST NORTHWEST JUST NORTH
OF PUERTO RICO. HIGH PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM
FLORENCE WILL SPREAD OVER THE ATLANTIC NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA
AND BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND WILL DOMINATE THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
NORTH OF US. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE TOWARD THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC AS AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
AND INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TUESDAY NIGHT. THEN...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWEST ACROSS PUERTO RICO DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
DURING THE ENTIRE PERIOD...THOUGH IT DOES GIVE WAY TO TROPICAL
STORM FLORENCE WHICH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OVER THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING SLOWLY
WESTWARD. ITS CENTRAL AXIS IS OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. AS
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE MOVES NORTHWEST A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM IT
TO LOW PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA WILL CROSS OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS ON FRIDAY. THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
OVER THE AREA FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREDOMINATE
FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THIS HAS BEEN SOME OF THE MORE INTERESTING WEATHER
THIS SEASON. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW MIGRATING TO THE
WEST NORTHWEST...TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE AND A TROPICAL WAVE IN
WHICH BOTH LEGS OF ITS INVERTED V WERE ACTIVE HAS SPAWNED
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WHICH LASTED MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND HAS LEFT
CONSIDERABLE RAIN IN THE NORTHERN VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE NORTH
COAST OF PUERTO RICO AND DAMAGE FROM LIGHTNING IN AT LEAST SEVERAL SECTORS.
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE OVER THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY MORNING AND THIS WILL ALLOW LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
CONVECTION TO PROLIFERATE OVER PUERTO RICO. PROFILERS SHOW ONLY A
SLIGHT DROP-OFF IN THE PRECIPITABLE MOISTURE OVER THE LAST 12
HOURS AND IT REMAINS ABOVE 2 INCHES. A DRY BAND OF SUBSIDENCE DOES
EXTEND AROUND THE WESTERN QUADRANT OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE BUT
CURRENTLY ITS OUTER BOUNDARY IS LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS AND SOME HIGH TOPPED CONVECTION IS STILL PUSHING THROUGH
50 THOUSAND FEET IN THE FAR SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE
CONVECTION TOPS ARE GENERALLY BELOW 25 THOUSAND THIS MORNING. THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN IN SURPRISING AGREEMENT CONSIDERING THE
COMPLEXITY OF THE CURRENT SCENARIO...BUT HAVE GENERALLY CHOSEN THE
WIND FIELD FROM THE GFS OVER THE NAM. THE NAM BRINGS THE COL TOO
FAR NORTH AND APPEARS TO BE TOO FAST WITH FLORENCE. THE GFS
HOWEVER SHOWS THE COL WHERE QUIKSCAT SHOWS IT AT THE PRESENT OVER
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...AND DOES NOT PUSH IT NORTH OF PUERTO RICO
BUT TENDS TO SLIDE IT WEST NORTHWEST OVER THE LOCAL AREA. THIS
GIVES A MORE REALISTIC PICTURE OF ABOUT 48 HOURS OF RATHER LIGHT
WINDS...WITH STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS ACCELERATING TOWARD FLORENCE
IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY MORE OR LESS
COINCIDENT WITH ITS CLOSEST PASSAGE TO THE PUERTO RICO. THESE
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY GIVE NORTH AND NORTHEAST COAST
TEMPERATURES A BOOST BACK INTO THE LOWER 90S...AND THIS TREND IS
ALSO REFLECTED IN THE MOS.

ALTHOUGH THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DRYING ON FRIDAY...RESIDENTS IN SAN
JUAN AND VICINITY MAY NOT NOTICE MUCH DIFFERENCE EXCEPT FOR WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND AN ODD WIND DIRECTION. SHOWERS THAT NORMALLY FORM
OVER THE LEEWARD CORNER OF THE ISLAND...THAT IS IN THE NORTHWEST
OR SOUTHWEST CORNERS...SHOULD BE FOUND OVER THE NORTHEAST FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY AND THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASED
AMOUNT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE METRO AREA. THIS RARELY
EXPERIENCED PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY RETURN TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ON
TUESDAY...BUT IN THE MEANTIME THE NORMAL DIURNAL SHOWER PATTERN
WILL BE NEARLY REVERSED. IT IS NOT CERTAIN IF THE ONSHORE FLOW
OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE ISLAND WILL BE ABLE TO REVERSE THE
LAND BREEZES WHICH FORM FAIRLY STRONGLY OVER THE STEEP SLOPES OF
THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL...BUT IF THEY DO...SHOWERS WILL PENETRATE
INTO THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE ISLAND NIGHTS AND EARLY MORNINGS OVER
PUERTO RICO SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. AFTER THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK THE PATTERN SLOWLY RETURNS TO SOME FORM OF NORMALCY...WITH
EASTERLY FLOW AND A RETURN TO TROPICAL WAVE ACTIVITY WHICH HAD
BEEN DISRUPTED BY THE OBSTACLE IMPOSED IN THE FORM OF FLORENCE.
THE NEXT WAVE IS WEAK BUT SHOULD CROSS THROUGH THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY WITH CONSIDERABLE INCREASE IN SHOWERS. THEN THE GFS
BRINGS IN A MUCH STRONGER CIRCULATION OVER THE THIRD WEEKEND IN
SEPTEMBER. NO CONFIDENCE IS ACCORDED TO THIS OUTCOME HOWEVER...IT
IS STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL WHAT WILL DEVELOP.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL BE HIGHER THAN USUAL BEGINNING ON THE EIGHTH
IN THE ATLANTIC AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS. THE WAVE WATCH MODEL
SHOWS SEAS PEAKING NEAR 6 FEET EARLY ON SATURDAY...SOMEWHAT
COINCIDENT WITH THE NEAREST APPROACH OF FLORENCE. ALTHOUGH THE
FORECAST ZONES SHOW WINDS NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OR SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION CATEGORIES...THESE WINDS SHOULD ONLY APPEAR IN THE
FAR NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS...WINDS WILL BE MUCH
LOWER ELSEWHERE. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE AFTER THE WEEKEND AND SEAS
DO NOT RISE AGAIN EXCEPT IN ANTICIPATION OF THE SYSTEM MOVING IN
OVER THE THIRD WEEKEND OF SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION...CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED DOWNWIND
OF PUERTO RICOS WINDWARD COASTS...HIGH TOPS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING
AND HEAVY RAIN SHOULD APPEAR EACH AFTERNOON. SOME OF THIS WEATHER
WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AT SAN JUAN AFTER
TODAY. AS THE TWO COASTS ARE QUITE DIFFERENT IT IS NOT CLEAR HOW
CLOSE TO THE AIRPORT ACTIVITY WILL FORM...BUT SOME THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD DRIFT THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...WITH MOISTURE ABOVE 2 INCHES EVEN THOUGH FALLING
SLOWLY...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ABLE TO PRODUCE ENOUGH RAINFALL TO
PRODUCE LOCAL URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY. LIGHT WINDS WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO THE
ACCUMULATIONS EXPERIENCED OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

As you can see even if Florence passes around 600 miles to the north of us we will see some effects in the form of big swells arriving and wind direction changes.

Last night a spectacular display of lighting occured.

[caribepr]

It was wonderful wasn' t it?? And some good rain along with it. I really loved the forecast for today - what I call the less than scientific forecast

Today
Variably cloudy then becoming partly cloudy late in the morning then becoming variably cloudy. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the morning...then scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Hazy. Highs around 86. East winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

[caribepr]

Gotta love today's ending of a pretty complicated discussion for PR -

"Bottom line to this ranting is that we have begun to transition
from a dry pattern from the past week...into a wet pattern with
some potential for brief periods of heavy tropical rains
throughout the next several days. Additionally...the tropical
Atlantic is not yet done manufacturing tropical systems this
year...and we thus need to keep a vigilant mindset."

[cycloneye]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 101021
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
621 AM AST TUE OCT 10 2006

.DISCUSSION...A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE MONA PASSAGE EARLY
THIS MORNING...WILL CONTINUE MOVING WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE LOCAL AREA TODAY AND THEN AWAY FROM THE LOCAL
REGION TONIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS INTO THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...AS A SECOND TROUGH SWINGS EAST SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA AND THEN TOWARD AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS
HISPANIOLA. THIS SECOND MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN
LINGER JUST WEST THROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY THURSDAY...RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THAT GFS IS OVERDONE
AND IS SUFFERING FROM SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK PROBLEM...BASED ON
SATELLITE DATA WE EXPECT ANOTHER AREA OF MOISTURE TO MOVE WEST
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AND THIS MOISTURE WILL INTERACT
WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND MOSTLY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WIND
CONDITIONS TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. FOR WEDNESDAY...TRIED TO
FOLLOW CONTINUITY BUT BECOMING MORE AND MORE APPARENT THAT TIMING
OF NEXT STRONGER TROPICAL WAVE WILL BE LATER THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY RATHER THAN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. IRRESPECTIVE...SHOULD
STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND WEDNESDAY TO COMBINE WITH LOCAL
EFFECTS AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS...TO PRODUCE SOME
CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

ALTHOUGH TIMING OF THIS NEXT TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN A PROBLEM...
THE COMBINATION OF THE ENTRAINMENT OF ADDITIONAL DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE...LOCAL EFFECTS AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS...
SHOULD RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. IN FACT...THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME RATHER ACTIVE WEATHER TO DEVELOP...WITH
AT LEAST SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING A
POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&


Good morning.Rainy weather for the next few days for us.

[caribepr]

Sounds like it Luis. I like it better when they say what *localized* means as to particular areas because as you know, what happens in SJ may not be close to what is happening here. Right now the sun is shining harder but it's not blue skies!

[cycloneye]

Sounds like it Luis. I like it better when they say what *localized* means as to particular areas because as you know, what happens in SJ may not be close to what is happening here. Right now the sun is shining harder but it's not blue skies!

You are right about the localized thing.It rains in San Juan but not in Bayamon,it rains in Fajardo but not in Culebra.Let's see how this weather that is expected pans out.

[cycloneye]

FXCA62 TJSJ 102018
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
418 PM AST TUE OCT 10 2006

.SYNOPSIS...A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A LOW PRESSURE AT 250 MB JUST
EAST OF MYRTLE BEACH...SOUTH CAROLINA TO ACROSS CUBA. A SHORT WAVE
APPEARS IN THE GFS OVER PUERTO RICO. THE TROUGH WILL PULL ACROSS
PUERTO RICO THURSDAY MORNING AND DIG INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS OVER THE WEEKEND. AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER CUBA EARLY NEXT WEEK FLOW ALOFT BECOMES NORTHERLY
AND A STRONG SOUTHERLY JET ALIGNS ITSELF WITH PUERTO RICO JUST
NORTH OF THE ISLAND ON THE LEFT SIDE OF A TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH
ALONG 60 WEST.

AT MID LEVELS...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN INTO A
HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC. OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS
THIS RIDGE MOVES NORTH AND A HIGH BUILDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
AS IT DOES SO A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A STRONG LOW OVER EASTERN
CANADA DIGS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BETWEEN 60 AND 70 WEST
CAUSING NORTH FLOW OVER THE LOCAL AREA TO CONTINUE BEYOND THE
WEEKEND.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A TROUGH THAT PASSED OVER PUERTO RICO ON MONDAY
NIGHT IS NOW OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES BEHIND IT WITH A BRIEF MINIMUM IN
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. A TROUGH NEAR 57 WEST
TODAY...WILL MOVE SLOWLY WEST AND INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
TOMORROW...AND IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY LESS HUMID AIR. TROUGHINESS
REFORMS JUST EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ON TUESDAY AND IS
EXPECTED TO ROLL BY THE AREA ON THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE FROM A TROUGH NOW IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
PEAKED OVER PUERTO RICO AROUND MIDDAY AND WAS INSTRUMENTAL IN THE
FORMATION OF HEAVY RAINS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN PUERTO
RICO THIS AFTERNOON JUST AS IT AIDED HEAVY SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH
AND NORTHEAST COASTAL PLAINS EARLIER IN THE DAY. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE
WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
PERSIST IN THE AREA.

ALTHOUGH THE 00Z RUN OF THE GFS SHOWED A SECOND TROUGH HAD FORMED
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...THIS TROUGH DID NOT APPEAR IN THE 12Z
RUN AND DOES NOT APPEAR IN THE SATELLITE LOOPS. THE LATTER MODEL
RUN SHOWS A BRIEF MINIMUM IN MOISTURE JUST NORTHEAST OF PUERTO
RICO AT 12Z WEDNESDAY...THAT GIVES WAY TO AMPLE MOISTURE FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY IN SOUTHEAST
FLOW. MOISTURE ALSO GOES THROUGH ANOTHER SIMILAR CYCLE ON
THURSDAY. ON THURSDAY THE GFS TRIES TO DEVELOP A CYCLONIC CLOSED
CIRCULATION AT LOWER LEVELS WITH AS MUCH AS 30 KNOTS ON THE
NORTHEAST PERIPHERY. BOTH 00 AND 12Z RUNS SHOW THIS WAVE CROSSING
THE AREA...PREGNANT WITH MOISTURE...ON FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH
CONSIDERABLY DRIER AIR IS EAST OF THE WAVE...THIS DRIER AIR GAINS
MOISTURE BEFORE CROSSING THE AREA AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL BE
PRESENT FOR CONTINUED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
ARISE IN EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW WITH THE DIURNAL PATTERN RAINFALL
ATTENDANT TO THAT FLOW...THAT IS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN
PUERTO RICO EXTENDING NORTH AS FAR AS ISABELA AND EVENING AND
EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH
THE CARIBBEAN AND AROUND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PENETRATING A
LITTLE WAYS INTO SOUTHEAST PUERTO RICO.

DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN BECOMES MORE CONDUCIVE TO NORTH FLOW OVER PUERTO RICO AND
A VERY NARROW TROUGH FORMS ALONG 60 WEST OVER THE ATLANTIC. AT THE
SAME TIME TROUGHINESS BEGINS TO REFORM BETWEEN 50 AND 60 DEGREES
WEST AT LOWER LEVELS. BY WEDNESDAY THIS INFLUENCE IS REFLECTED AT THE
SURFACE BY EVEN MORE NORTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...WHICH...IF
THE GFS CAN BE TRUSTED THIS FAR OUT...WOULD PASS OVER PUERTO RICO
ON THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...ALTHOUGH THE ABOVE DESCRIBED SITUATION WILL BE PLENTY
WET...IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD FLOODING. THERE ARE
NO LARGE POOLS OF MOISTURE TO TAP AND NO STREAMS OR LONG PERIOD
TROUGHS TO FEED MOISTURE INTO THE AREA ON A CONTINUAL
BASIS...ONLY OSCILLATING LEVELS OF HUMIDITY...MAINLY AT LOWER
LEVELS. BUT SEVERAL PERIODS WILL BRING IN AMPLE MOISTURE AND FEW
AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE A DRY DAY. SOME URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING COULD OCCUR ON EACH OF THE DAYS IN THE FAVORED AREAS...THOUGH
FRIDAY WOULD BE MOST FAVORED DAY THIS WEEK.

.MARINE...THE GFS MODEL SPINS UP SOME SURFACE WINDS THAT...IF
CORRECT...WOULD REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON FRIDAY. THIS
ALSO PLACED SEAS OF UP TO 10 FEET IN THE FORECAST. ALTHOUGH LOWER
LEVEL WINDS ARE HIGHER ON FRIDAY...IT IS NOT CLEAR THIS LOW WILL BE
ABLE TO SPIN UP IN THE MANNER THAT IT IS BEING DEPICTED...THEREFORE
HAVE LIMITED THE SEAS FORECAST FOR THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC TO 7 FEET
ON FRIDAY AND THIS SHOULD BE AS MUCH AS WILL BE SEEN FOR THE NEXT
5 TO 7 DAYS.


Let's prepare for this wet event as it will be bringing a good deal of precipitation.Today it was a gray day with cloudy skies with scattered showers in San Juan.

[caribepr]

I'll prepare by making sure all the plants in the gardens have their little arms wide open! Actually, I'll water really well, maybe then we'll get some of this!

[cycloneye]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 111043
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
643 AM AST WED OCT 11 2006

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUED ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS...THE VI...AND FAR EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
OVERNIGHT...AS A STEADY STREAM OF MOISTURE MOVED INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTHEAST. EXPECT THIS MOISTURE TO COMBINE WITH FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST
OF PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING...TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE SURROUNDING
ISLANDS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE...NEAR 59 WEST THIS MORNING...IS EXPECTED
TO REACH THE VI LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS PUERTO RICO ON
FRIDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE
BEST INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROPICAL WAVE...BUT THE
THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
THIS WAVE EXISTS FOR FRIDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST AS IT ALREADY CONTAINED WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAINFALL WORDING AND HIGH POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.



It looks like friday will be the rainy day for us so caribepr,those plants will open their arms.Let's watch and see if this wave will be more than that or stays as a wave.

[cycloneye]

FXCA62 TJSJ 112006
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
406 PM AST WED OCT 11 2006

.DISCUSSION...
AN INTERESTING WEATHER PATTERN HAS EMERGED ACROSS THE
REGION...WHICH CAN POTENTIALLY RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT
FOR THE LOCAL ISLANDS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG
TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST. SIGNIFICANT
LIFT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH HAS RESULTED IN VERY ACTIVE WEATHER
ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...EXTENDING
NORTHWEST INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS TROUGH HAS ALSO
DESTABILIZED THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE LOCAL FA...AND COMBINED WITH
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTED FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO PRODUCE
ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE
ISLAND. AT THE SAME TIME...A TROPICAL WAVE HAS REACHED THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. THE MORNINGS
QUICKSCAT PASS INDICATED SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL CURVATURE...AND
PERHAPS EVEN A SLIGHT INDICATION OF A CLOSED LOW. STEERING FLOW AT
THE MOMENT IS FROM THE SOUTHEAST...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
THIS FEATURE SLOWLY TOWARD THE LOCAL ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT DAY.
MODELS INDICATE THE TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT FROM THE LOCAL AREA BY
FRIDAY...AND HELP WEAKEN THE STEERING WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
IF THIS SCENARIO PLAYS OUT...THE LOW MAY LINGER ACROSS THE LOCAL
FA FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS...AND RESULT IN HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA. OF COURSE THERE ARE STILL UNCERTAINTIES IN THE
FORECAST WHICH MAY PREVENT THIS SCENARIO FROM HAPPENING...IN
PARTICULAR...IF THE TROUGH KEEPS DIGGING AND DOES NOT LIFT
OUT...IT WILL KEEP THE ACTIVE WEATHER EAST OF THE LOCAL FA. LOCAL
RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE URGED TO REMAIN ABREAST OF THE EXPECTED
WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT DAY.


Silll some uncertainty about how much rain we will get in Puerto Rico,Vieques,Culebra and the BVI and U.S VI.But regardless we will see a wet period during the next 48 hours.

[caribepr]

Well, we just got the BEST rain we've had in .... I don't even know how long. An hour of hard rain, the streets flooded (nothing dangerous) a fantastic lightning and thunder bit before that. I'm sitting here soaked from being at my local watering hole (no pun intended) and ALL of us were just so happy to have this rain!!! Now the rain has stopped but the lightning and thunder show are starting again so there may be more to come. Literally minutes before this, Judy the bartender came to the edge of the dock pleading for a breeze, it had been SO hot and SO still. So we're all grinning like maniacs...

[cycloneye]

MJ,if that big batch of rain in the Atlantic comes down to us it would be a significant rain event for Puerto Rico and you in Culebra.Let's see what happens in the next few hours with this.

[caribepr]

We're getting a little thunder and lightning now, but the rain has stopped. We'll see what happens. I'm just SOOOO glad my important window was closed while I was gone, because I thought it was open (the one over all the electronic stuff). I think I just close it on auto pilot...thank god!