Invest 93L,E of Florida,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

[Thatsmrhurricane]

Why did this not get picked-up by the front?

[ronjon]

Why did this not get picked-up by the front?

The trough to the north passed by and left it behind. High pressure built in down the coast which has forced it S-SW over the last couple of days.

[Thunder44]

The shortwave trough mostly bypassed this system to the north and east a few days ago. The front has washed out over the SE states.

Ship report just NE of the center reported SSE 24.1 kt sustained winds

SHIP S 1200 30.80 -79.60 71 47 160 24.1 - 4.9 5.0 - - 29.93

[StormsAhead]

Latest QS has 25 knot vectors just off the FL coast. This doesn't look more organized than yesterday based on radar and satellite imagery. Around this time yesterday it had a 3/4 ring of thunderstorms around the center and bands in the northern quadrant. It just didn't pass right over a buoy.

"RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE SMALL LOW PRESSURE
AREA CENTERED ABOUT 65 MILES EAST OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA HAS
BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...IF
ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR. "

The small low pressure area located over tropical water with a low-level circulation and convection around the center might slowly develop into a tropical depression, which is usually characterized as a small low pressure area located over tropical water with a low-level circulation and convection around the center.

[Thatsmrhurricane]

Where can I go to learn about how strong a front has to be and how close to a TC in order for it to be influenced?

[Thunder44]

Special Marine Warning
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
AMZ472-191345-
/O.NEW.KJAX.MA.W.0101.060819T1219Z-060819T1345Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
819 AM EDT SAT AUG 19 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO
60 NM OVER ATLANTIC OFFSHORE WATERS

* UNTIL 945 AM EDT

* AT 818 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM...PRODUCING STRONG WINDS OVER 35 KNOTS 60 MILES EAST
OF VILLANO BEACH...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 KNOTS.

* THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN AWAY FROM
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL LANDMARKS OVER THE INDICATED AREA.

MARINERS CAN EXPECT GUSTY WINDS...HIGH WAVES...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...
AND HEAVY RAINS. BOATERS SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY...UNTIL
THIS STORM PASSES.

THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE SUDDEN WATERSPOUTS. WATERSPOUTS CAN EASILY
OVERTURN BOATS AND CREATE LOCALLY HAZARDOUS SEAS. SEEK SAFE HARBOR
IMMEDIATELY.

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE COAST GUARD OR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE.

LAT...LON 3008 8040 3037 8024 3059 8057 3052 8102

$$

ENYEDI

[caneman]

Why has there not been a STDS issues from NHC at least

[ronjon]

[quote="caneman"]Why has there not been a STDS issues from NHC at least[/quote

For whatever reason the NHC refuses to name the system as a TD.

[StormsAhead]

Why has there not been a STDS issues from NHC at least

I don't know why they didn't call this a depression. I hope it's not that they thought it would dissipate quickly, because that's not their job.

It seems like the normal procedure before issuing advisories or even a STDS is issuing TWO's that forecast development. This doesn't explain why they didn't call it a depression 3-4 days ago, but it does explain why they aren't calling it now. It's always difficult to get them to start advisories or admit something is going on if they didn't forecast development.

[rockyman]

Where can I go to learn about how strong a front has to be and how close to a TC in order for it to be influenced?

Not sure if there is "science" behind this..but I've heard many times on this board that a trough needs to be within 10 degrees latitude to have an effect on a system

[drezee]

Why has there not been a STDS issues from NHC at least

I don't know why they didn't call this a depression. I hope it's not that they thought it would dissipate quickly, because that's not their job.

It seems like the normal procedure before issuing advisories or even a STDS is issuing TWO's that forecast development. This doesn't explain why they didn't call it a depression 3-4 days ago, but it does explain why they aren't calling it now. It's always difficult to get them to start advisories or admit something is going on if they didn't forecast development.

Interesting...it is human nature to not want to be wrong. In their case, they never have to...if they are worng they don;t have to admit it. no one is going to hold them resposible for a system that is not interacting with land.

[CronkPSU]

well if nothing else, this "system" has ruined the weekend for those of us in central florida...it is pouring down rain in apopka right now

[Bane]

We'd gladly take it here in North Carolina.

[Thunder44]

Dopper radar velocities estimates show 30kt to 40kt winds in those thunderstorm wrapping around the center.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... X&loop=yes

[Thunder44]

Buoy 41012 reported 25.1 kts sustained within the last hour:

8:30 am SW ( 219 deg ) 25.1 kts

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41012

[ronjon]

Convection blowing up on south side of circulation again this morning. Probably getting a boost by near shore uptick in sea surface temps as it drifts closer to the coast.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... duration=6

[Thunder44]

999
WHXX01 KWBC 191338
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932006) ON 20060819 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060819 1200 060820 0000 060820 1200 060821 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 30.5N 80.5W 29.1N 82.8W 28.1N 85.3W 27.6N 87.7W
BAMM 30.5N 80.5W 29.9N 82.0W 29.3N 83.6W 29.0N 85.1W
A98E 30.5N 80.5W 30.4N 80.9W 29.7N 82.2W 28.5N 83.5W
LBAR 30.5N 80.5W 30.1N 81.4W 30.1N 82.4W 30.3N 83.4W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 35KTS 39KTS
DSHP 25KTS 25KTS 30KTS 35KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060821 1200 060822 1200 060823 1200 060824 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 27.5N 90.1W 28.0N 94.2W 28.3N 96.9W 28.1N 98.3W
BAMM 29.1N 86.6W 29.9N 88.6W 29.9N 89.5W 29.7N 90.8W
A98E 28.0N 84.9W 27.0N 87.4W 26.6N 88.7W 26.4N 89.7W
LBAR 30.9N 83.8W 32.6N 82.8W 33.6N 78.5W 36.9N 70.9W
SHIP 43KTS 51KTS 57KTS 57KTS
DSHP 38KTS 46KTS 45KTS 31KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 30.5N LONCUR = 80.5W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 2KT
LATM12 = 30.5N LONM12 = 80.0W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 1KT
LATM24 = 30.6N LONM24 = 79.9W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Still says "Disturbance Invest" no upgrade yet.

[CronkPSU]

ships=57 kts???

[cycloneye]

GOM bound.

[Thunder44]

ships=57 kts???

Most of the models take the storm into the GOM. Also the ships doesn't take into account, land interaction.