Invest 93L,E of Florida,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

[AJC3]

[b]999
WHXX01 KWBC 191338
CHGHUR

<guidance snipped>

Throw that entire suite of guidance out. It has been persistently showing a much faster movement to the SW-WSW, owing to deeper layer steering, which has not and will not manifest itself.

BAMS or even a slower than BAMS motion will wind up bonecrushing the rest of the track guidance.

[CronkPSU]

ships=57 kts???

Most of the models take the storm into the GOM. Also the ships doesn't take into account, land interaction.

ahh OK, even if it goes into the GOM I can't see it getting that strong that quick after going over the penisula

[caneman]

[b]999
WHXX01 KWBC 191338
CHGHUR

<guidance snipped>

Throw that entire suite of guidance out. It has been persistently showing a much faster movement to the SW-WSW, owing to deeper layer steering, which has not and will not manifest itself.

BAMS or even a slower than BAMS motion will wind up bonecrushing the rest of the track guidance.

Lets ask a Pro Met. Why is this not a depression?

[Thunder44]

[b]999
WHXX01 KWBC 191338
CHGHUR

<guidance snipped>

Throw that entire suite of guidance out. It has been persistently showing a much faster movement to the SW-WSW, owing to deeper layer steering, which has not and will not manifest itself.

BAMS or even a slower than BAMS motion will wind up bonecrushing the rest of the track guidance.

Yeah, I've notice system has been moving alot slower these models have forecasted.

[AJC3]

Lets ask a Pro Met. Why is this not a depression?

My guess, and one which has been pointed out previously in this thread, is that the subjective interpretation of the specialists is that the convection associated with the low:

1) has not quite been of sufficient areal coverage about the center
2) has not been generated via entirely tropical processes (i.e. the convection, while being generated near and south of the center, has been sporadic, and jet-aided)

to qualify as a TD.

There's no doubt that there is:

1) A closed LLC
2) sustained winds of 20-25kt

But the subjective criterion of persistent convection around the low level center has yet to be met, at least in the mind of specialists.


Keep in mind that this system is not being "ignored" at all, and is well handled in the suite of products from TAFB, and the local WFO's.

We all know that there's an "almost-TD" out there. We also know YOMV.

[curtadams]

ships=57 kts???

Ships "pretends" that the system won't interact with land, which this one probably will. Look at the DSHIPS, which does account for land.

This system is exhibit A in why the NHC should just report what's there and not ignore systems because, as some suggested yesterday, it would evaporate quickly and be no threat to land. It didn't evaporate (surprising everybody - but since when do we know everything about these storms) but now to upgrade requires saying it strengthened substantially under 40+ kts shear. The truth is that it just maintained its strength but now the TD that wasn't there is about to come ashore on Jacksonville and it's not even out of the question for it to become a TS. Actually, with one particular buoy measuring 25 kts at 5 meter elevation, there's a very good chance it's already Debby. Aircraft measurements are essentially always higher than the highest buoy measurements.

[caneman]

Lets ask a Pro Met. Why is this not a depression?

My guess, and one which has been pointed out previously in this thread, is that the subjective interpretation of the specialists is that the convection associated with the low:

1) has not quite been of sufficient areal coverage about the center
2) has not been generated via entirely tropical processes (i.e. the convection, while being generated near and south of the center, has been sporadic, and jet-aided)

to qualify as a TD.

There's no doubt that there is:

1) A closed LLC
2) sustained winds of 20-25kt

But the subjective criterion of persistent convection around the low level center has yet to be met, at least in the mind of specialists.


Keep in mind that this system is not being "ignored" at all, and is well handled in the suite of products from TAFB, and the local WFO's.

We all know that there's an "almost-TD" out there. We also know YOMV.

OK, I'll bite. clue me in We also know YOMV

[StormsAhead]

Your opinion may vary?

[AJC3]

Your opinion may vary?

yuppers.

[caneman]

Looks to me like NHC may have a little egg on their face. Loo kate blowup of intense storms.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html

[caneman]

And LLC looks to be mostly covered now on visible. I'd be shocked if they don't upgrade now.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

[Thunder44]

On radar those strong thunderstorms just to the south of the center appeared to have weakened greatly in the last few mins. There are plenty other showers and thunderstorm rotating around the center right now.

[StormsAhead]

And LLC looks to be mostly covered now. I'd be shocked if they don't upgrade now.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

I wouldn't.

But maybe after the season is over...like the unnamed storm last year.

[cycloneye]

What about having recon baby!!!

[caneman]

What about having recon baby!!!

They don't need a plane. I'll take my boat out about 30 miles and check it out
Not!

[CronkPSU]

What about having recon baby!!!

They don't need a plane. I'll take my boat out about 30 miles and check it out
Not!

LOL where are derek and the jet skiiers?

[CronkPSU]

Lets ask a Pro Met. Why is this not a depression?

My guess, and one which has been pointed out previously in this thread, is that the subjective interpretation of the specialists is that the convection associated with the low:

1) has not quite been of sufficient areal coverage about the center
2) has not been generated via entirely tropical processes (i.e. the convection, while being generated near and south of the center, has been sporadic, and jet-aided)

to qualify as a TD.

There's no doubt that there is:

1) A closed LLC
2) sustained winds of 20-25kt

But the subjective criterion of persistent convection around the low level center has yet to be met, at least in the mind of specialists.


Keep in mind that this system is not being "ignored" at all, and is well handled in the suite of products from TAFB, and the local WFO's.

We all know that there's an "almost-TD" out there. We also know YOMV.

thanks!

[Emmett_Brown]

10 am Conditions here in Jax:

Dense overcast
Wind N/NW 5-10
Barometer 29.96
Humidity 75%

Quite calm out there now, but the sky is very tropical looking. Slight orange glow to the north, similar being on the edge of a CDO. I know that this is just a brief blowup, but the CDO of nearby tropical systems always gives us the same look.

[Seele]

They won't upgrade it based on just the blowup this morning. It's getting badly sheared and the convection is already on the decrease. On radar, the deeper reds on the SE part of the circulation (which is where the big blowup was coming from) have almost vanished in the last hour.

[Stormcenter]

It looks like it's moving inland to me but it's hard to tell. Anyway, I can't get over had bad the shear throughout the GOM and Carribean.