Invest 93L,E of Florida,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

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beachbum_al
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#321 Postby beachbum_al » Sat Aug 19, 2006 9:54 am

caneman wrote:
cycloneye wrote:What about having recon baby!!! :lol:


They don't need a plane. I'll take my boat out about 30 miles and check it out :eek:
Not!


That sounds like something my husband would say to me to get a reaction out of me. :lol:

So where is the disturbance going? Is it still stationary? No, I have read the pages back so I have no idea what is going on right now. Off to take the girls to the beach.
Last edited by beachbum_al on Sat Aug 19, 2006 9:55 am, edited 1 time in total.
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hiflyer
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#322 Postby hiflyer » Sat Aug 19, 2006 9:54 am

Love how radar will play tricks on ya....Jax shows the flareup dissolving but the energy dissolving SW into the high tops crossing onshore now near Ormond Beach and Daytona.....Melbourne indicates the same but shows some intense cells about 45 miles east of the original blowup still existing...JAX starting to show them now as well.
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#323 Postby Thunder44 » Sat Aug 19, 2006 9:55 am

Seele wrote:They won't upgrade it based on just the blowup this morning. It's getting badly sheared and the convection is already on the decrease. On radar, the deeper reds on the SE part of the circulation (which is where the big blowup was coming from) have almost vanished in the last hour.


Yes, just like the past few days. Thunderstorms flare up around the center than get blown off and diminishing after a few hours. Upper-level winds are just simply too fast to get this thing going. Perhaps the shear relaxes a for little while when the sun goes down and than picks up when it comes back up.
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#324 Postby HurricaneGirl » Sat Aug 19, 2006 9:56 am

http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/loops/radloop.master.pl?Florida

here comes a line of storms, just to the north of here. it's weird how that thing has been camped there, spinning around for a couple days.
Last edited by HurricaneGirl on Sat Aug 19, 2006 9:57 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#325 Postby Stormavoider » Sat Aug 19, 2006 9:57 am

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#326 Postby Thunder44 » Sat Aug 19, 2006 9:58 am

Stormcenter wrote:It looks like it's moving inland to me but it's hard to tell. Anyway, I can't get over had bad the shear throughout the GOM and Carribean.


The center appears to still be offshore based on radar and surface obs and is not moving very much.
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#327 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 19, 2006 9:59 am


NOUS42 KNHC 191430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT SAT 19 AUG 2006
SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
VALID 20/1100Z TO 21/1100Z AUG 2006
TSPOD NUMBER.....06-081

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE


No flying
Last edited by cycloneye on Sat Aug 19, 2006 10:01 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#328 Postby HurricaneGirl » Sat Aug 19, 2006 10:01 am

Nope.
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#329 Postby SouthFloridawx » Sat Aug 19, 2006 10:02 am

351
ABNT20 KNHC 191501
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SAT AUG 19 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 55 MILES EAST OF
JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND PROXIMITY TO
LAND...SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM APPEARS UNLIKELY.
HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WILL AFFECT COASTAL AREAS OF NORTHEAST
FLORIDA...GEORGIA...SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND ADJACENT WATERS
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.
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hiflyer
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#330 Postby hiflyer » Sat Aug 19, 2006 10:05 am

Naah...probably nothing for them to fly but what is out there is playing a little havoc with the normal north south offshore aviation routes....more traffic now running onshore following I95....the North to SJU route is ok...too far east...but the offshore Wilmington NC to about Cape Canaveral is fairly fractured...some are trying it but can see deviations as the cells grow and die.

Before you ask.....
http://www.flightexplorer.com/personal/ ... ition.aspx

grin
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#331 Postby Portastorm » Sat Aug 19, 2006 10:06 am

Do y'all think this system will have enough of it intact to emerge eventually off the west coast of FL and become a "player" in the Gulf?
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#332 Postby HurricaneGirl » Sat Aug 19, 2006 10:07 am

we're having some light tropical showers and the sky has some interesting clouds. :)
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#333 Postby kenl01 » Sat Aug 19, 2006 10:08 am

beachbum_al wrote:
caneman wrote:
cycloneye wrote:What about having recon baby!!! :lol:


They don't need a plane. I'll take my boat out about 30 miles and check it out :eek:
Not!





Nah, I would check that thing out with my air raft floating in the ocean. And only if the breeze around that thing is even worth it ....... :)

I'd probably be more worried about where I can store my sunscreen while afloat
Last edited by kenl01 on Sat Aug 19, 2006 10:09 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#334 Postby Stormavoider » Sat Aug 19, 2006 10:09 am

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#335 Postby StormWarning1 » Sat Aug 19, 2006 10:10 am

Portastorm wrote:Do y'all think this system will have enough of it intact to emerge eventually off the west coast of FL and become a "player" in the Gulf?


No chance unless it starts a southwest movement. It is moving west though and to slow to get out in the Gulf. I expect it to spin out over North Fla.
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#336 Postby Thunder44 » Sat Aug 19, 2006 10:15 am

Portastorm wrote:Do y'all think this system will have enough of it intact to emerge eventually off the west coast of FL and become a "player" in the Gulf?


It would have to get far south in the GOM to have chance of development. Upper-level winds are forecast to be strong for the next several days across much of the northern and central GOM.

http://www.weatherunderground.com/data/ ... _shear.gif
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#337 Postby Stormavoider » Sat Aug 19, 2006 12:40 pm

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#338 Postby TS Zack » Sat Aug 19, 2006 12:42 pm

The LLC is trying to pull itself under the convection giving a more erratic motion.
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storms in NC
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#339 Postby storms in NC » Sat Aug 19, 2006 12:49 pm

Okay I have not really been looking at any thing this week. Daughter was in bad car wreck Monday and she come home friday. So today I have tryed to catch up but to much going on here. She broke both angles so it has been hard to see what really what has happen.
Now is this going into fla or can it go back up the coast or what? Where are the highs and ridges ect.. Thanks
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#340 Postby Yankeegirl » Sat Aug 19, 2006 1:11 pm

Some of the models have it going west and into the Gulf.. and from there is a crapshoot.... thats if it holds together over Florida... we will have to wait and see...
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