Is the Carrib. player now on the field?

[caneman]

See for your self. Down around 13 and 75. the Ull to its North doesn't look like it would inhibit, in fact it may help to ventilate. What ya think?

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrir.html

[rockyman]

Could be...if it is the player, it better stay put for a while...because shear to the north is strong:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8shr.GIF

[cheezyWXguy]

Im pretty sure thats the wave expected to close off in the GOM that wxman57 warned of

[caneman]

Im pretty sure thats the wave expected to close off in the GOM that wxman57 warned of

Yep,

Which a few want to so quickly discount CMC but if someone would please show me a model that is doing any better this year I will listen. BTW-CMC and NOGAPS still showing some evelopment with this. Although GFS seems to loose it now. We'll need to see if we get some consistency.

[Thatsmrhurricane]

Im pretty sure thats the wave expected to close off in the GOM that wxman57 warned of

Yep,

I first talked about it with the CMC development thread Which a few wanted to quickly discount but if someone would please show me a model that is doing any better this year I will listen. BTW-CMC and NOGAPS still showing some evelopment with this. Although GFS seems to loose it now. We'll need to see if we get some consistency.

I agree caneman. I would like to see someone post the comparison of model verification for this year.

[Hyperstorm]

In the field? I think so. I hope it's not ready to throw the ball yet.

To have anything developing we would have to get rid of that tenacious ULL located just west of Jamaica. Unfortunately, the GFS model forecasts this ULL to slowly dissipate specifically during the next 48 hours. Even more impressive is a a large and predominant Upper-Level Anticyclone that the GFS will be developing in the eastern Caribbean. This anticyclone, according to this model, will shift westward and park over the NW Caribbean come early next week. If that's the case, the United States could be in major trouble with the steering flow taking anything directly toward the northern Gulf coast. I really hope that doesn't pan out because it would be a very bad scenario.

One good thing is that the the upper-level forecasts from the GFS are not 100% accurate many times. So, until I see signs of that persistent ULL weakening, I don't think anything major is gonna happen.

But that convection north of Panama is disturbing...

[dixiebreeze]

See for your self. Down around 13 and 75. the Ull to its North doesn't look like it would inhibit, in fact it may help to ventilate. What ya think?

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrir.html

I think it is:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg

[Stormtrack]

Im pretty sure thats the wave expected to close off in the GOM that wxman57 warned of

Yep,

Which a few want to so quickly discount CMC but if someone would please show me a model that is doing any better this year I will listen. BTW-CMC and NOGAPS still showing some evelopment with this. Although GFS seems to loose it now. We'll need to see if we get some consistency.

I'm a little surprised to see wxman57 quoting the CMC. This is what he previously said about it in a discussion of the various models:
"CMC -- Canadian Model. I've never been too fond of this model. It may be good for winter up in Canada, but it's never shown me any expertise with tropical systems. If it gets a storm right, it's just usually pure luck:"

[skysummit]

Looking at the Rainbow imagery of the southern Carribean moisture, there already seems to be some curvature to the cloud pattern.

[miamicanes177]

let's see this thing organize under 30kts of shear.

[skysummit]

let's see this thing organize under 30kts of shear.

Give it time.....high pressure is supposed to start building right over this area in the coming days.

[southerngale]

Im pretty sure thats the wave expected to close off in the GOM that wxman57 warned of

Yep,

Which a few want to so quickly discount CMC but if someone would please show me a model that is doing any better this year I will listen. BTW-CMC and NOGAPS still showing some evelopment with this. Although GFS seems to loose it now. We'll need to see if we get some consistency.

I'm a little surprised to see wxman57 quoting the CMC. This is what he previously said about it in a discussion of the various models:
"CMC -- Canadian Model. I've never been too fond of this model. It may be good for winter up in Canada, but it's never shown me any expertise with tropical systems. If it gets a storm right, it's just usually pure luck:"

This was all he said:
"The GFS and ECMWF have come in line with the Canadian and NOGAPS in bringing a disturbance from north of Panama northward toward the northern Yucatan by late in the weekend or early next week then into the south-central Gulf by Tuesday."
It's not like he was heavily relying upon anything by the CMC, at least from what I can tell.

[caneman]

let's see this thing organize under 30kts of shear.

Umm, there isn't 30 kt. shear that far South it's a little further North and if this sits and spins for the next day or two the ULL is forecast to move out.

[MortisFL]

The ULL is gonna move out and the track the wave takes will be less destructive in the way of shear.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Already looks better than our Eastern Atlantic Wave.

[Stratosphere747]

The ULL is as strong as ever, and has been there 4/5 days now. Anything that gets near it is flattened.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Isn't the east side of a ULL good for ventilating a system?

[Frank2]

The ULL east of Florida is forecast to drop WSW into the southeast Gulf, so, conditions in that area are forecast to remain unfavorable for awhile - we'll see what happens...

Frank

[Frank2]

Actually, the ULL over the NW Caribbean seems to be dropping slowly east-southeastward, and is encroaching on the disturbance itself, and, in the last frame or two, seems to be squeezing it into a more north-south orientation:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

[wxmann_91]

Isn't the east side of a ULL good for ventilating a system?

True. In fact, without that ULL in the Caribbean, this area of convection wouldn't exist right now. There is no low level convergence, and if shear and resultant UL divergence were as low as they had been the last few weeks, this area would still be bone dry.