Tracking Upper Level Troughs/Lows

[Hurricaneman]

awesome great maps again thanks again one day it will become favorable again

When that happens, all stuff will break loose

[SouthFloridawx]

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _ls_0.html

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8vor1.html

[SouthFloridawx]

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_wv_ls_0.html

There is another upper level TUTT feature developing to the Northeast of the Islands.

Eventhough these features move out with time.... I find it very interesting that they have mostly formed in the same area and have taken the same track. Form out in the Central Atlantic, around 20 N or so and then move westward.

I am wondering what is causing these ULL's to form and take pretty much the same track over the past couple of months.

EDIT:

I would like to add that GFS does not forecast this ULL to move westard towards the Bahamas. It takes it a little farther west then eventually northeast farther north.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

I posted this in another thread but, I thought maybe I can post here to see if anyone notices or knows what I'm talking about.

[Galvestongirl]

Hey, keep these comming, I never knew what they looked like until this thread!!!! thanks soooo much

[SouthFloridawx]

[SouthFloridawx]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8vor2.html
500mb Vorticity

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8vor1.html
200mb Vorticity



GFS is indicating a weakening and northward movement of the ULL to the northeast of PR.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

[bvigal]

GFS is indicating a weakening and northward movement of the ULL to the northeast of PR.

Guess what? That ULL has moved north, but hardly any west, and hasn't weakened much. Been this way all year!

[Rieyeuxs]

I just want to add my 2 cents that this is one of the best teaching threads I've seen! Thank you !!!!

[SouthFloridawx]

I just want to add my 2 cents that this is one of the best teaching threads I've seen! Thank you !!!!

Your welcome... I will update this when I get home.

[SouthFloridawx]

Well... Looking at the Water Vapor imagry thinking wow that is a lot of Upper Level Lows. Hmmm... what does this hold for the rest of the season.

One thing I can tell you that I noticed is that the following....

The ULL near 40W and 40N seems to be weaking and pulling out to the northeast as GFS has shown in it's runs the last couple of days.

The ULL to the North of the Islands is weakening and pulling north.

Another ULL in the Western GOM is moving westward into Mexico.

I was talking to someone in IPR studio last night after Mike's show and we were mentioning all the ULL's in the Atlantic. Well Matt made a very good point. Sea Surface pressures have been really high in June, July and the 1st week of August. Matt mentioned that there has to be some way to balance it out so to speak. Now keep in mind I am paraphrasing him so it's not a quote. What I took from it is that it meant that as SLP's are head towards a much more normal and eventually slightly below normal we'll see the ULL's not as prevalent and certainly not as strong as they have been. The Upper Levels were trying to counter act the High SLP's by lowered pressures in the Upper Levels thus creating a lot of Upper Level lows.

I have been noticing the last day or two that the ULL's have been getting weaker.

GFS 00 Hour 18Z


I think IMO by the way as we move deeper into the heart of the Season we'll see less ULL's and the ones we do see won't be as strong. As long as the SLP"S are low.

This will lead to one factor that will make this season more conducive for Development.

That's my story and I'm sticking to it....

For now anyway.

[bvigal]

These are just great, and THANKS again, SouthFloridawx!!!

[SouthFloridawx]

Your welcome.

Updated to add another ULL....



http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8vor1.html

[WeatherWiseGuy]

Okay, I'll ask the dumb questions. Perhaps due to my inexperience, if I looked at these satelite photographs I would see small features in otherwise featureless blobs. How are you able to identify the ULL's?

[SouthFloridawx]

Okay, I'll ask the dumb questions. Perhaps due to my inexperience, if I looked at these satelite photographs I would see small features in otherwise featureless blobs. How are you able to identify the ULL's?

In the tropical weather discussion and on the CIMSS site.

Please ask all the questions you want.... Perhaps it would make me dig deep and cause me to also learn something.

[WeatherWiseGuy]

Ah, thank you SouthFloridawx, so you can't identify them simply by looking at the satelite photos themselves. I suppose they would be easier to see in the loop. But, how can you tell whether a ULL is something that might portend further development or might just disipate on it own? By the surrounding conditions, perhaps?

[wxmann_91]

Okay, I'll ask the dumb questions. Perhaps due to my inexperience, if I looked at these satelite photographs I would see small features in otherwise featureless blobs. How are you able to identify the ULL's?

Counterclockwise rotation in water vapor imagery. Sometimes they are easy to spot as little spirals but other times you really need a loop to see the trends in the clouds.

[WeatherWiseGuy]

Thanks, Wxmann, that's what I thought, but wasn't sure. Thank you SouthFloridawx, this topic is interesting and educational. I hope this isn't off-topic, but how about inverted troughs. Are they related to ULL's? How do they affect tropical weather.

[wxmann_91]

You're welcome WeatherWiseGuy.

I don't know much about inverted troughs, but this was the first link on Google:

http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/126/

[WeatherWiseGuy]

Thank you, Wxmann. Your link provided excellent information! I will continue to monitor this thread as it is answering many questions I have had for a while.

[wxmann_91]

Thank you, Wxmann. Your link provided excellent information! I will continue to monitor this thread as it is answering many questions I have had for a while.

I recommend that you check out this thread: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 5&start=80

I'm bumping it up now as we speak.