Invest 93L,E of Florida,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

[Thunder44]

SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
AMZ470-472-191900-
/O.NEW.KJAX.MA.W.0103.060819T1733Z-060819T1900Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
133 PM EDT SAT AUG 19 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO
60 NM OVER ATLANTIC OFFSHORE WATERS
FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO 60 NM OVER ATLANTIC OFFSHORE WATERS

* UNTIL 300 PM EDT

* AT 130 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM...PRODUCING STRONG WINDS OVER 35 KNOTS 56 MILES EAST
OF ATLANTIC BEACH...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15 KNOTS.* THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN AWAY FROM
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL LANDMARKS OVER THE INDICATED AREAS.

MARINERS CAN EXPECT GUSTY WINDS...HIGH WAVES...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...
AND HEAVY RAINS. BOATERS SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY...UNTIL
THIS STORM PASSES. WATERSPOUTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE COAST GUARD OR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE.

LAT...LON 3057 8038 3075 8063 3062 8098 3041 8050

[Sanibel]

OK, enough's enough. You have to give credit its due.


This little bugger is tough and has been around long enough to deserve TD at this point.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I love how everyone brings up the "deep convection" argument, yet they fail to remember Chris which stayed a 40mph TS for over 24-36 hrs. as just a naked swirl! Obviously the NHC doesn't play by it's own rules with these systems. IMO, this deserved to be called a TD. That visible swirl and the high wind reports (as well as the low pressure) were enough to classify it in my book (and the NHC had even agreed with that in past situations).

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[Toadstool]

I agree... to me it definitely had a closed circulation and the windspeed is right up there. Make it a TD and be done with it.

[Thunder44]

I love how everyone brings up the "deep convection" argument, yet they fail to remember Chris which stayed a 40mph TS for over 24-36 hrs. as just a naked swirl! Obviously the NHC doesn't play by it's own rules with these systems. IMO, this deserved to be called a TD. That visible swirl and the high wind reports (as well as the low pressure) were enough to classify it in my book (and the NHC had even agreed with that in past situations).

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

That was because they had already started writing advisories on it and they were afraid it could regenerate.

But I'm willing to bet everytime they looked at this invest gaining more convection and organization, they always believed it would be completely gone in the next 12 hours or so. So why classify a system that you are only going to write one or two more advisories on?

[Extremeweatherguy]

I love how everyone brings up the "deep convection" argument, yet they fail to remember Chris which stayed a 40mph TS for over 24-36 hrs. as just a naked swirl! Obviously the NHC doesn't play by it's own rules with these systems. IMO, this deserved to be called a TD. That visible swirl and the high wind reports (as well as the low pressure) were enough to classify it in my book (and the NHC had even agreed with that in past situations).

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

That was because they had already started writing advisories on it and they were afraid it could regenerate.

But I'm willing to bet everytime they looked at this invest gaining more convection and organization, they always believed it would be completely gone in the next 12 hours or so. So why classify a system that you are only going to write one or two more advisories on?

Yeah, I know what you mean, but I still think they should be more consistant in what they call a depression and not. I don't think it is right that they called Chris a TS with little to no convection, and they are calling this nothing even with some organized convection from time to time.

I have a feeling they may go back at the end of the year and upgrade this one.

[miamicanes177]

I'm glad it's late August and all we're arguing about is if a low pressure area should be upgraded to a tropical depression. Usually at this time people are questioning why a cat 4 was not upgraded to a cat 5.

[Toadstool]

I'm glad it's late August and all we're arguing about is if a low pressure area should be upgraded to a tropical depression. Usually at this time people are questioning why a cat 4 was not upgraded to a cat 5.

lol, yes, I agree we should count our blessings!

[brunota2003]

Ok...I was going to stay out of this arguement...but wouldnt it cost extra money for them to upgrade the area? if they upgraded it to a TD, then because its a threat they have to run recon missions into it, which costs alot of money, and they have to lauch dropsondes and do all kinds of things...so why write 2 or 3 advisories on a little system like this, which does not have winds over 25 mph sustained (at least according to recon, and no, one thunderstorm producing gusts over 40 MPH does not count) when you can just let the NWS handle it and save money at the same time? plus when they were leaving the system didnt someone mention that it was no longer warm cored? which would mean no TC...

[Toadstool]

Ok...I was going to stay out of this arguement...but wouldnt it cost extra money for them to upgrade the area? if they upgraded it to a TD, then because its a threat they have to run recon missions into it, which costs alot of money, and they have to lauch dropsondes and do all kinds of things...so why write 2 or 3 advisories on a little system like this, which does not have winds over 25 mph sustained (at least according to recon, and no, one thunderstorm producing gusts over 40 MPH does not count) when you can just let the NWS handle it and save money at the same time? plus when they were leaving the system didnt someone mention that it was no longer warm cored? which would mean no TC...

That is a very good point I hadn't taken into account. I guess it's the question of historical accuracy vs. the rules we have set up that automatically go into effect when a TD is declared. We need some compromise where reality can be recorded but not have the automatic expense that comes with telling the truth. Leave it to the politicians to make it expensive to tell the truth!

[AJC3]

Ok...I was going to stay out of this arguement...but wouldnt it cost extra money for them to upgrade the area? if they upgraded it to a TD, then because its a threat they have to run recon missions into it, which costs alot of money, and they have to lauch dropsondes and do all kinds of things...so why write 2 or 3 advisories on a little system like this, which does not have winds over 25 mph sustained (at least according to recon, and no, one thunderstorm producing gusts over 40 MPH does not count) when you can just let the NWS handle it and save money at the same time? plus when they were leaving the system didnt someone mention that it was no longer warm cored? which would mean no TC...

Nah, $$$$ is never really a valid concern or motivation for operationally declaring a system a TC. Like I said earlier, it's a subjective classification. It's a ~25 knot closed cyclone, undergoing tremendous shear, tooting jet-aided convection which continuously gets rapidly sheared away from the center. It's being treated in other non-advisory TPC products and those from the local WFO's.

Obviously, opinions on here vary as to just how tropical it is.


I think those who invoke the consistency argument should keep a couple things in mind.

1) While as an agency you do everything you can to maintain established operational guidelines, NHC specialists, as do most meteorologists, disagree amongst themselves when it comes to systems that are marginal or hybrid, etc.

2) When questioning why two systems that look identical at one point have not been treated equally, it is more likely than not that the system that did have advisories initiated on it was a better organized system at one point in time. NHC will maintain the status quo on a system unless there is a well-established trend toward development or dissipation.

As I said earlier, YOMV on these matters, however as someone who works for the NWS and knows most of the NHC specialists, I'd like to ask that we continue to keep a healthy perspective for a marginal system such as this.

Let's keep the disagreements civil and non-insulting - not that anyone here would ever do that, right?

[storms in NC]

SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
AMZ470-472-191900-
/O.NEW.KJAX.MA.W.0103.060819T1733Z-060819T1900Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
133 PM EDT SAT AUG 19 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO
60 NM OVER ATLANTIC OFFSHORE WATERS
FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO 60 NM OVER ATLANTIC OFFSHORE WATERS

* UNTIL 300 PM EDT

* AT 130 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM...PRODUCING STRONG WINDS OVER 35 KNOTS 56 MILES EAST
OF ATLANTIC BEACH...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15 KNOTS.* THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN AWAY FROM
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL LANDMARKS OVER THE INDICATED AREAS.

MARINERS CAN EXPECT GUSTY WINDS...HIGH WAVES...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...
AND HEAVY RAINS. BOATERS SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY...UNTIL
THIS STORM PASSES. WATERSPOUTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE COAST GUARD OR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE.

LAT...LON 3057 8038 3075 8063 3062 8098 3041 8050

Learn something everyday. I didn't know there was a Atlantic Beach Fla

[Stormavoider]

Is it just coincidental, or is there a dynamic that all the convection visible on the radar out of jax seems to be rotating around this tiny LLC. I'm talking about the stuff that's way out through Georgia and north central Florida.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=JAX&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

[storms in NC]

Looking at the VLoop you can see that it is going back north.

[Dean4Storms]

It is like this, 93L has been borderline TD. However it has not sustained deep convection wrapped around its center for a longer period than a few hours since its development of a low. If it did so I'm sure the NHC would have classified it, but with it struggling so hard to even keep a TStorm somewhere on its periphery I just can't see calling it a TD just because it had some winds blowing counterclockwise around it under 25 kts.

Besides, if they suddenly now classified it a TD it would give the impression to most of the world that 93L is strengthening and it clearly is not doing that. It is simply holding its own as a tropical low.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The next time I see a naked LLC in the caribbean like Alberto or Arlene. I will call it a tropical low. If it has 25 knots or under winds on the recon. Because thats what it will be. Thanks for making me see the light that depressions have to have 30 knot winds to be upgraded. I learned something today.


Also its not looking to good this afternoon. Shear is still at around 40 knots its amazing how that works. Also the LLC is getting smaller=falling in on its self.

[Extremeweatherguy]

It is like this, 93L has been borderline TD. However it has not sustained deep convection wrapped around its center for a longer period than a few hours since its development of a low. If it did so I'm sure the NHC would have classified it, but with it struggling so hard to even keep a TStorm somewhere on its periphery I just can't see calling it a TD just because it had some winds blowing counterclockwise around it under 25 kts.

Besides, if they suddenly now classified it a TD it would give the impression to most of the world that 93L is strengthening and it clearly is not doing that. It is simply holding its own as a tropical low.

I think it has weakened now, but at one point 30mph+ sustained winds were being reported with this on a Navy tower off the GA coast.

[Sanibel]

And a completely naked spiral heads into the Georgia coast.


Bye, bye 93L...

[beachbum_al]

Should we have a memorial service for 93L? Have a proper service for our bubble of convection.

[HurricaneHunter914]

I thought she looked like a TD earlier when it had a band of convection.