Possible GoM Tropical Threat next Tuesday/Wednesday?

[Extremeweatherguy]

On JB's evening zone idea, he said that zone 12 (TX zone) needs to watch the tropics during mid to late part of next week. Seems like he continues to think a western Gulf threat is coming from this.

BTW: He also said two other systems could develop next week. One near 50W, 20N AND one in the SW Atlantic.

[ROCK]

On JB's evening zone idea, he said that zone 12 (TX zone) needs to watch the tropics during mid to late part of next week. Seems like he continues to think a western Gulf threat is coming from this.

BTW: He also said two other systems could develop next week. One near 50W, 20N AND one in the SW Atlantic.

I was wondering when JB was going to chime in on this. I dont know EWG , models are showing a fairly evident weakness in the ridge to draw it up to the NGOM if there is anything. Will be watching.

[Nimbus]

Such detailed forecasts from JB. There is a lot of water between the southern Caribbean and Texas, when do the beach erosion forecasts for Cozumel come out?

[ROCK]

Such detailed forecasts from JB. There is a lot of water between the southern Caribbean and Texas, when do the beach erosion forecasts for Cozumel come out?

I missed the joke there.....

[beachbum_al]

Hey, Lindaloo...I feel your pain (I can almost see Pascagoula from my house on Dauphin Island's West End)...Here's the latest NOGAPS at 132 hours:

No way! I heard that Dauphin Island is split on the west end now. Is that true? We tow for Dauphin Island PD. When I went down there to get our license I only went to City Hall. I did not have the heart to go down to the west end.

I believe that is true. Katrina really gave DI a blow. Especially on the West Side if I remember correctly. I will see if I can find the pics showing DI from the air after Katrina. This area does not need a hurricane! Actually no area from TX to FL needs a storm. We need time to rebuild from 2004 and 2005.


Here us the picture that show DI


http://www.pensacolanewsjournal.com/apps/pbcs.dll/gallery?Avis=DB&Dato=20050830&Kategori=HURRICANE&Lopenr=508300806&Ref=PH

[TampaFl]

On JB's evening zone idea, he said that zone 12 (TX zone) needs to watch the tropics during mid to late part of next week. Seems like he continues to think a western Gulf threat is coming from this.

BTW: He also said two other systems could develop next week. One near 50W, 20N AND one in the SW Atlantic.

Yes comfirming what EWG said, JB also says for Florida (zone 5) that his thinking is that any tropical systems will be to the east, and over the western and central gulf.

Of course first something will have to develope. Lets see what happens. Could this be the start of the "ramp up"??? Time will tell.


Robert

[dwg71]

If JB, or anybody for that matter, keeps firing - eventually they will hit something. "Chris will be a cat 4 or 5 in northern gulf"

[ROCK]

If JB, or anybody for that matter, keeps firing - eventually they will hit something. "Chris will be a cat 4 or 5 in northern gulf"

And many pro Mets were thinking the same about Chris also. Its easy to play arm chair Met but these guys / gals obviously got where they are today by seeing things us ametuers don't. I say keep firing away and keep us on our toes when something does threaten, IMO.

[Frank P]

Hey, Lindaloo...I feel your pain (I can almost see Pascagoula from my house on Dauphin Island's West End)...Here's the latest NOGAPS at 132 hours:

No way! I heard that Dauphin Island is split on the west end now. Is that true? We tow for Dauphin Island PD. When I went down there to get our license I only went to City Hall. I did not have the heart to go down to the west end.

I believe that is true. Katrina really gave DI a blow. Especially on the West Side if I remember correctly. I will see if I can find the pics showing DI from the air after Katrina. This area does not need a hurricane! Actually no area from TX to FL needs a storm. We need time to rebuild from 2004 and 2005.


Here us the picture that show DI


http://www.pensacolanewsjournal.com/apps/pbcs.dll/gallery?Avis=DB&Dato=20050830&Kategori=HURRICANE&Lopenr=508300806&Ref=PH

wow, those pixs of DI are pretty incredible... My dad owned a beach house on the island in the late 80s... we use to love to go there.... I have not been since.... the road and severe erosion almost looks to be unrepairable.... sad.... encouraging to see some of the houses still standing however... I hope they can come back..

[Lindaloo]

If JB, or anybody for that matter, keeps firing - eventually they will hit something. "Chris will be a cat 4 or 5 in northern gulf"

Please refrain from bashing. Thanks.

[Steve]

>>No way! I heard that Dauphin Island is split on the west end now. Is that true? We tow for Dauphin Island PD. When I went down there to get our license I only went to City Hall. I did not have the heart to go down to the west end.

I never walked that far, but there was a checkpoint about a mile past city hall (just by the school and old public beach). The eastern end is protected by Sand Island, so that's where I ended up for 2 months. The eastern end took it's share of battering as it got a few feet into the condos I was at (and they told me it would take 11' of surge to get water in the parking lot.

Steve

[deltadog03]

yeah, dwg don't bash...there were MANY!!!! that thought the same thing...

[rockyman]

SW Caribbean starting to become more favorable--

Shear is now decreasing over the southwest Caribbean:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

Compared to 24 hours ago when it was increasing (notice the heaviest shear is moving off to the east):
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... sht-8.html

GFS shear map for tomorrow evening (00z) shows dramatically better conditions in the SW Carib:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... &hour=30hr

Convergence is finally creeping into the area:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8conv.html

Upper divergence is excellent:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8dvg.html

By this time tomorrow evening, conditions could be ripe for development

[Kerry04]

Looks like we might see some development in the area if this plays out

[Stormcenter]

[quote="Extremeweatherguy"]On JB's evening zone idea, he said that zone 12 (TX zone) needs to watch the tropics during mid to late part of next week. Seems like he continues to think a western Gulf threat is coming from this.



Don't get me wrong I like JB but has there been a week he "hasn't" said something could or would develop?

[GeneratorPower]

On JB's evening zone idea, he said that zone 12 (TX zone) needs to watch the tropics during mid to late part of next week. Seems like he continues to think a western Gulf threat is coming from this.



Don't get me wrong I like JB but has there been a week he "hasn't" said something could or would develop?

Has there been a week when something couldn't possibly develop?

[Lindaloo]

On JB's evening zone idea, he said that zone 12 (TX zone) needs to watch the tropics during mid to late part of next week. Seems like he continues to think a western Gulf threat is coming from this.



Don't get me wrong I like JB but has there been a week he "hasn't" said something could or would develop?

He has earned the right to say anything he wants to.

[wxmann_91]

On JB's evening zone idea, he said that zone 12 (TX zone) needs to watch the tropics during mid to late part of next week. Seems like he continues to think a western Gulf threat is coming from this.



Don't get me wrong I like JB but has there been a week he "hasn't" said something could or would develop?

That is JB's weakness. He hypes sometimes. But this is not for the disco here.

That GFS forecast shear map will still be unfavorable, however, with continued UL divergence and more moist air, maybe we can get a more concentrated area of convection to organize and consolidate. What happens from here on out is dependent on track.

[SouthFloridawx]

Looking at the latest shear maps from the CIMSS site. The 40 kt shear that was basically covering most off the caribbean seems to be dying off with the ULL that is weakening.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... or1-6.html
Yesterday

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8vor1.html
0300 UTC

[chrisnnavarre]

That looks like a storm brewing down there this morning. At least on IR. I definitely see a twist as well. I'll bet the visuals confirm as well as soon as they are in. Look for an Invest from the Navy on this one...Soon I hope.

Does anyone know when the 0600 models are out and what they are saying now?