Hurricane Ioke thread

[RattleMan]

Pretty little thing. How long has this been an invest?

Since around 1900Z August 16th.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I would think that the JTWC with all the storms that they track and forecast...Would have more experence in forecasting and saying whats a tropical cyclone. See training is important but if you don't use it like the Central pacific is very quit. Its just like a army in wwII or any army the ones with experence wins the wars.

I would put more on the JTWC for all the cyclones they track. They must track 50 a season. I'm not saying or dising the central pacific hurricane center at all they are pro's.

Also I think this is a very close to a td. In should be one in the next 24 hours.

Do you agree or disagree with me on this?

[Derek Ortt]

I would not put much faith in JTWC, since many of the forecasters do not even have B.S. met degrees, which is not the case for CPHC

[Cyclenall]

First % chance that Invest 91C will become a:

Tropical Depression: 70%
Tropical Storm: 50%
Hurricane: 20% (quite high for a Cpac storm)
Category 2 hurricane: 10%
Category 3 hurricane: 3%
Category 4 hurricane: Almost 0%
Category 5 hurricane: Almost 0%

The reason why the % is very high in some places is because of what the GFDL has been showing in every run for a while.

[btangy]

I would not put much faith in JTWC, since many of the forecasters do not even have B.S. met degrees, which is not the case for CPHC

I would hope the ones making the actual forecasts have met degrees. Their forecasts do have skill I presume.

[clfenwi]

20/0000 UTC 10.3N 157.0W T1.0/1.0 91C

------------------------------------------------------------------------

CENTRAL PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY - FIXES
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0013 UTC SUN AUG 20 2006

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED NEAR 09.5N 157.1W AT 19/2330 UTC
BASED ON GOES WEST 2 KM RESOLUTION VIS AND 4 KM RESOLUTION IR SECTOR
IMAGES AND ANIMATION. ESTIMATED MAXIMUM 1 MINUTE MEAN WIND SPEED
25 KT. POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM. MOVEMENT ESTIMATED TOWARDS
THE WEST AT 10 KT OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS.

T1.0/1.0/S0.0/6 HOURS

REMARKS...SYSTEM WRAPS 0.25 ON THE LOG10 SPIRAL...YIELDING A DATA T
OF 1.0. PATTERN T AGREES. CONVECTION HAS BEEN RESTRAINED BUT
PERSISTENT OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.

$$

KINEL

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WHXX01 KMIA 200113
CHGE77

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CENTRAL PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (CP912006) ON 20060820 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060820 0000 060820 1200 060821 0000 060821 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 10.0N 157.7W 10.3N 160.6W 10.9N 163.6W 11.9N 166.3W
BAMM 10.0N 157.7W 10.5N 160.3W 11.3N 162.9W 12.4N 165.4W
LBAR 10.0N 157.7W 10.4N 159.6W 11.6N 162.3W 12.6N 166.3W
SHIP 25KTS 35KTS 47KTS 59KTS
DSHP 25KTS 35KTS 47KTS 59KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060822 0000 060823 0000 060824 0000 060825 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.2N 168.4W 15.9N 170.6W 17.9N 171.4W 19.3N 172.2W
BAMM 13.8N 167.6W 16.8N 170.7W 19.5N 172.5W 23.1N 173.6W
LBAR .0N .0W .0N .0W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 67KTS 71KTS 72KTS 70KTS
DSHP 67KTS 71KTS 72KTS 70KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.0N LONCUR = 157.7W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 10.0N LONM12 = 156.6W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 10.0N LONM24 = 155.3W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

[Derek Ortt]

Many of the JTWC forecasters do not have met degrees (is the case for many military mets). Instead, they receive met training from the military, not sure of the length, but I believe it is less than a 4 year degree (maybe one of the military mets can correct me if I am wrong)

[AussieMark]

I would not put much faith in JTWC, since many of the forecasters do not even have B.S. met degrees, which is not the case for CPHC

I would hope the ones making the actual forecasts have met degrees. Their forecasts do have skill I presume.

Well JTWC is not a offical agency I would put more weight into what somone like JMA or CPHC says personally

[JonathanBelles]

why is the JTWC and JMa watching this?

[clfenwi]

Many of the JTWC forecasters do not have met degrees (is the case for many military mets). Instead, they receive met training from the military, not sure of the length, but I believe it is less than a 4 year degree (maybe one of the military mets can correct me if I am wrong)

The Typhoon Duty Officer, who could probably be considered the equivalent of a hurricane specialist at the NHC, is an officer, which means that he does have a bachelor's degree (not necessarily in meteorology).

The balance of the watch team is enlisted personnel, which have general and specialized training in meteorology. Heavy on synoptics, somewhat light on hard-core dynamics.

(As Derek posted, one of the military mets can correct me if I'm wrong on these points).

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

JTWC is because they forecast for All pacific and all other oceans. Except the Atlatnic which the Nhc controls only. The JMA only controls the western pacific with 3 or 4 other hurricane centers.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Developing a LLC...Not as good as 93L had but its clsoed.

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... _cp_0.html

[JonathanBelles]

what would be the name on this?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

NRL has tooken down 91c its possible!
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

[clfenwi]

ACPN50 PHFO 200200
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST SAT AUG 19 2006

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS MORE THAN 600 MILES SOUTH OF THE BIG
ISLAND OF HAWAII. THE SYSTEM HAS SHOWN INCREASING ORGANIZATION OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS...WITH RESTRAINED YET PERSISTENT CONVECTION. THE
DISTURBANCE APPEARS TO BE MOVING WESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

$$

KINEL

[JonathanBelles]

why did it take it down????

[RattleMan]

Hmmm...If you click the "All" tab you'll find 01C.NONAME...

[WmE]

Now we've to wait for the CPHC to upgrade it.

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/cpac/avn-l.jpg

This should have been named a TS a long time ago! DAMN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Cyclenall]

So this is now a depression. Well it certainly looks like a depression or stronger. The models like the GFDL showed the start of this tropical cyclone's life at this time frame. So far so good.