So Much for Hurricane Season 2006...

[Extremeweatherguy]

It looks like TX will get some cold fronts/cooler weather during late August and early September, but beyond that a ridge will build back and the rest of September looks warmer and more favorable for a hurricane strike.

I am not saying it WILL happen, I am just saying that there seems to be a potential period of early September through early October that we may really have to watch (especially since any westward moving storms toward the end of September may be pushed north toward TX by a stray trough or two).

IMO, Texas will be affected by at least one storm within the next 2 months, and there is a slim chance the system could be a full blown strong hurricane. I just hope we are all prepared when/if this does occur.

BTW: JB had said earlier this year that he expected a Cat. 2+ hit on TX this season. We will have to see if he is right..

Hopefully he busts.

[jlauderdal]

Hey, there is always 2007 or even 2008.

and 2006, this season has alot of life left except for texas since statistically their chances of getting hit are now declining.

really bold statement since the season really hasn't started per se.....

not really when you look at climatology albeit this only goes through 1999 i bet even if it went through 2005 you would see as we get past sept 1 texas hits decline unlike florida which increase through october.
'
Hurricane/Tropical Storm Strikes and Near Strikes (1871-1999)
Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Total
Hurricanes 10 5 17 13 4 49
Trop. Storms 9 6 9 13 2 39
Nearby Hurricanes 0 0 3 3 0 6
Nearby T.S'.s 1 1 3 4 1 10

Total Systems 20 12 32 33 7 10



http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lch/research/txhuclimo.php

[Extremeweatherguy]

August and September are actually very similar climatologically for TX TS/Hurricane hits.

[Ptarmigan]

It looks like TX will get some cold fronts/cooler weather during late August and early September, but beyond that a ridge will build back and the rest of September looks warmer and more favorable for a hurricane strike.

I am not saying it WILL happen, I am just saying that there seems to be a potential period of early September through early October that we may really have to watch (especially since any westward moving storms toward the end of September may be pushed north toward TX by a stray trough or two).

IMO, Texas will be affected by at least one storm within the next 2 months, and there is a slim chance the system could be a full blown strong hurricane. I just hope we are all prepared when/if this does occur.

BTW: JB had said earlier this year that he expected a Cat. 2+ hit on TX this season. We will have to see if he is right..

Hopefully he busts.

I would not be surprised if a major hurricane did hit Texas this year. Rita was a close one.

[SouthFloridawx]

This season is gonna get flipped on like a light switch sooner than later. People are going to be saying... Oh I wish I didn't say this season was dead.

[BocaGirl]

Mike, Thanks for the excellent analysis. I wish people who are shouting SEASON CANCEL would look back at 2005 and remember one thing. Especially the folks here in South Florida.

Wilma paid us a visit on October 24, 2005.

2006 isn't over 'til it's over.

BocaGirl
Barbara

[benny]

Or Option 5.. El Nino forms and kills the season!

[wxmann_91]

There's a greater likelihood that El Nino won't too adversely affect the season until late October since it's developing so late.

Nevertheless, SEASON CANCEL!!!

BTW Mike, great post.

[MBismyPlayground]

Mike, you are the best!! This was a much needed topic, and explains many of the hows and whys to us who are at the novice level at best...yea,(blush) I still have not learned a whole lot in all of this time (grin) Thank you so much!

[beachbum_al]

Excellent post!

[benny]

There's a greater likelihood that El Nino won't too adversely affect the season until late October since it's developing so late.

Nevertheless, SEASON CANCEL!!!

BTW Mike, great post.

Yeah, 1986 was a late-developing El Nino too and it didn't matter much. I'd argue that El Nino-like conditions are affecting the global weather now...

[southerngale]

It looks like TX will get some cold fronts/cooler weather during late August and early September, but beyond that a ridge will build back and the rest of September looks warmer and more favorable for a hurricane strike.

I am not saying it WILL happen, I am just saying that there seems to be a potential period of early September through early October that we may really have to watch (especially since any westward moving storms toward the end of September may be pushed north toward TX by a stray trough or two).

IMO, Texas will be affected by at least one storm within the next 2 months, and there is a slim chance the system could be a full blown strong hurricane. I just hope we are all prepared when/if this does occur.

BTW: JB had said earlier this year that he expected a Cat. 2+ hit on TX this season. We will have to see if he is right..

Hopefully he busts.

I would not be surprised if a major hurricane did hit Texas this year. Rita was a close one.

I'll say it was close...right on top of us! We don't want or need another hit with all the rebuilding/repairing going on. Everyone is already antsy.

EWG, if we can start getting some early fronts, I would think that would start protecting us. Rita was a late hit last year for this area, although not unheard of. When we get into September, with each passing day, I will start to feel a little more comfortable (I think). I can't be certain of that, since I haven't had any kind of threat whatsoever since Rita....and pray that I don't.


Btw Mike...great post!

[Jim Cantore]

I'd like to nominate this for the best post of the year

It's AUGUST! September is still ahead of us

At this point in both 1998 and 1999 we had ONE NAMED STORM!!!!!!!

Notible late august storms

1998: Bonnie
1999: Bret

Notible september storms

1998: Georges
1999: Dennis, Floyd

Notible October storms

1998: Mitch
1999: Irene

Notble November storms

1998: none
1999: Lenny

-removed- too is another annoying aspect, If you have never experenced a Hurricane you have NO RIGHT to wish for them to make landfall ANYWHERE!

I had to get that last part off my chest.