Big rain in Sw. Fl.

[flyingphish]

I do not know if it is the effect of 93 invest or the advancing MJO pulse, but we got one of the most intense rain events I have seen in many years. Almost four inches of rain in about 90 minutes. Not to mention, some hailstones. I am confident the pulse is already impacting the weather. This beg's the question..how much..with all the hostility to the East? Could be a passive season with most events forming close to home. This is due to the fact that the MJO will advance to the East into hostility and then it is a non event. Seems to me that whatever potential landfaller's we get out of this shortening season may happen in the next few weeks ,close to home. Then a lull ,and possibly an october player,
in the Gulf or Carribean, due, in most part ,to SST's. and less shear.
I lean towards a passive season. But it only takes one "homegrown" like the Key's Labor Day or a Mitch to make any season memorable. Not to mention, some solitary Cape Verde characters, should they slip through.














major

[Recurve]

Right on the money.

What if anything do you make of the ULL over the bahamas -- haven't seen discussion but saw something on CIMSS winds

[Sanibel]

Saw that bank of convection to the south of the island yesterday. Immediately told me the atmosphere is becoming more tropical. Naples got 6 inches, we got a trace. Lots of lightning. Ft Myers got 4 inches in spots.

[jlauderdal]

Right on the money.

What if anything do you make of the ULL over the bahamas -- haven't seen discussion but saw something on CIMSS winds

that ull caused good convection over my house at 2 am, dropped 2 .28 in my gauge in 75 minutes.