Possible GoM Tropical Threat next Tuesday/Wednesday?

[Starburst]

Not sure if we are talking about the same thing but anyone notice that huge blob down in the Car. growing arms?

[chrisnnavarre]

Not sure if we are talking about the same thing but anyone notice that huge blob down in the Car. growing arms?

Yeah, I just did. Looks like it's getting the "S" shape. I think there's a storm brewing here.... and I think the models were right after all.

Wonder what the 0600 models are saying. Does anyone have a link????

[Nimbus]

SW Caribbean starting to become more favorable--

Shear is now decreasing over the southwest Caribbean:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

Compared to 24 hours ago when it was increasing (notice the heaviest shear is moving off to the east):
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... sht-8.html

GFS shear map for tomorrow evening (00z) shows dramatically better conditions in the SW Carib:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... &hour=30hr

Convergence is finally creeping into the area:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8conv.html

Upper divergence is excellent:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8dvg.html

By this time tomorrow evening, conditions could be ripe for development

Good links! The reduced shear was the missing key that needed to verify from the model runs. This system now has better odds to develop. It is interesting that storm2k has 13 pages of comments before an invest has even been declared.

As convection has been pulsing in the area over the last several days, the center of the locus of highest convective cold cloud tops has drifted NW from near 11n 77w.

Since shear is forecast to diminish from west to east the initial tracks will likely trend near the Yucatan. Once in the gulf JB must feel it is going to hook west as most of yesterdays guidance had it tracking toward a weakness in the central gulf coast.

Other than the more favorable shear forecast verifying what else is new with this system? Are some of the other models starting to pick it up?

[Starburst]

Not sure about the models I have not looked but I do believe we will have our invest soon as this thing has ramped up quickly in the past 3 hours.

[rockyman]

This map does show low level turning north of Panama...anyone want to try to find north winds over Costa Rica or Nicaragua?

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8ir.html

[Air Force Met]

Not sure if we are talking about the same thing but anyone notice that huge blob down in the Car. growing arms?

Yeah, I just did. Looks like it's getting the "S" shape. I think there's a storm brewing here.... and I think the models were right after all.

Wonder what the 0600 models are saying. Does anyone have a link????

Except the "S" is turned the wrong way. It's backwards.

[rockyman]

MM5 shows a strengthening system in the central Gulf by mid-week, heading toward TX/LA

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/mm5 ... 00/17.html

[rockyman]

GFDL has a low pressure area north of the west tip of Cuba moving NW by midweek.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfd ... 912/7.html

[Starburst]

Not sure if we are talking about the same thing but anyone notice that huge blob down in the Car. growing arms?

Yeah, I just did. Looks like it's getting the "S" shape. I think there's a storm brewing here.... and I think the models were right after all.

Wonder what the 0600 models are saying. Does anyone have a link????

Except the "S" is turned the wrong way. It's backwards.

Ahhhhh, you know it is a sad day when we have our own pro mets laughing at us

[ronjon]

A counter-clockwise turning is evident near 14N-82W this morning - very near the east coast of Nic. Probably an MLC but if convection holds today this looks like the next investigation. None of the globals develop anything on todays runs - but most storms that form are never picked up initially by models.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

[Stratosphere747]

Might be jumping the gun, and really hard to tell with the images so spaced out. But there may be something trying to get going in the general area of 13/80.

Broad if anything...

Well this area has became a bit "persistent" after almost 18hrs. If there is any low it is still broad and in the same general area.

The NAM in the last few runs shows one healthy system in the BOC. Corpus' disco mentions it and gives a good reason to discount it, for now..

THE NAM
SPINS UP AN INTENSE SFC LOW OVR THE SWRN GULF/BAY OF CAMPECHE REGION
WED. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLN IS LOW GIVEN THE RECENT HISTORY OF THE
NAM SPINNING UP INTENSE SFC LOWS IN THE GULF DID NOT MATERIALIZE.

Here is about the best sat images I can find besides the GHC site.

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/Rmsdsol/COS.html

[tailgater]

A counter-clockwise turning is evident near 14N-82W this morning - very near the east coast of Nic. Probably an MLC but if convection holds today this looks like the next investigation. None of the globals develop anything on todays runs - but most storms that form are never picked up initially by models.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

First Visible loop seem to confirm this, but we should be safe, take alook at the steering currents.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8dlm2.GIF

[KatDaddy]

Where is Zone 12 (TX)? Where do we find the zone map that Joe B is referencing??

[MortisFL]

Looks alot better this morning. Shear declining slowly. Models not showing a whole lot yet though, maybe the 12z will change that.

I wonder if the center will develop along the coast or to the NE of it.

[Portastorm]

Satellite presentation is definitely impressive this morning.

The 6z GFS run shows some energy moving northwestward through the Yucatan/Cuba straits but seems to lose it after 72 hrs.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... /fpc.shtml

And the always entertaining NAM with its 6z run shows a hurricane in the Bay of Campeche at 84 hrs!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... /fpc.shtml

[TampaFl]

Where is Zone 12 (TX)? Where do we find the zone map that Joe B is referencing??

Katdaddy, it is listed under "Text Glossary" on his paid site. Zone 12 is all of Texas (except for the westeern point , El Paso and all of Oklahoma.


Robert

[duris]

Wxman57, you started all this , what are your thoughts now? Hopefully you haven't been working all weekend because of it.

[tropicsgal05]

Is the thought right now this maybe a western GOM storm? I know no one knows for sure but it should depend on the steering currents. Is that correct?

[Extremeweatherguy]

Is the thought right now this maybe a western GOM storm? I know no one knows for sure but it should depend on the steering currents. Is that correct?

It is a little to early to tell, but at this point it seems that anything that forms should be a western or central Gulf issue.

[chrisnnavarre]

Is the thought right now this maybe a western GOM storm? I know no one knows for sure but it should depend on the steering currents. Is that correct?

Looks to be a blocking ridge over eastern Texas but moving west. Looks to be one over Western Florida as well. At least that's what I think I see on water vapor....using my untrained eyes of course. Well I was a radar guy (OS) in the Navy (retired now) and did spend some time looking at weather sat images.

No one's commenting yet but I'm sure they are all looking at this now. At least I hope they are....

I wouldn't pay much attention to JB. He's going to predict everything into the Western Gulf so his beginning of season predictions come true.



I guess when we have an invest and a recon and then that data is fed into the models we'll have a good idea then. I hope they're fueling planes as we write this. I'd be willing to bet that they are.