Time to Revise Those 2006 Season Predictions!
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- TheEuropean
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Original Numbers---20/11/6
Revised Numbers---19/9/5
Why so high numbers? I think next week will be very interesting and nearly 20 storms are still possible with a season like this:
July 3/0/0
August: 3/2/2
September 6/4/3
October 4/2/1
November 2/1/0
Dezember 1/0/0
It's just possible with activity exploding in this comming week.
Revised Numbers---19/9/5
Why so high numbers? I think next week will be very interesting and nearly 20 storms are still possible with a season like this:
July 3/0/0
August: 3/2/2
September 6/4/3
October 4/2/1
November 2/1/0
Dezember 1/0/0
It's just possible with activity exploding in this comming week.
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- Extremeweatherguy
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I do not know if numbers will be that high, but I do agree with you that the coming week or two will be very active.TheEuropean wrote:Original Numbers---20/11/6
Revised Numbers---19/9/5
Why so high numbers? I think next week will be very interesting and nearly 20 storms are still possible with a season like this:
July 3/0/0
August: 3/2/2
September 6/4/3
October 4/2/1
November 2/1/0
Dezember 1/0/0
It's just possible with activity exploding in this comming week.
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TheEuropean wrote:Original Numbers---20/11/6
Revised Numbers---19/9/5
Why so high numbers? I think next week will be very interesting and nearly 20 storms are still possible with a season like this:
July 3/0/0
August: 3/2/2
September 6/4/3
October 4/2/1
November 2/1/0
Dezember 1/0/0
It's just possible with activity exploding in this comming week.
So you think we may see a named storm next week?
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- TheEuropean
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Very intresting TheEuropean, your really going for an active end of season despite el nino probably rearing its head by that point.
My personal revised numbers are 14/8/4, I think it wil lget more active with a burs tof hurricanes in September however I can also see this season ending on a queiter note, though you do seem to get more often a cold cored systems which becomes warm-cored.
My personal revised numbers are 14/8/4, I think it wil lget more active with a burs tof hurricanes in September however I can also see this season ending on a queiter note, though you do seem to get more often a cold cored systems which becomes warm-cored.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
- wxman57
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I said I'd post my thoughts after hearing your replies. Here's what I think.
First of all, what is "normal"? Normal used to be about 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes. But that was before the NHC started naming subtropical storms. New satellite and remote sensing can help us detect tropical storms anywhere. That may add a storm every year or so as well. So I think that the new "normal" will be closer to 12 named storms, 6-7 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes.
But that "normal, above, does not take into account the above-normal Atlantic SST pattern that may persist for another 15-25 years. While the warmer SSTs may result in more intense (major) hurricanes, the number of named storms probably won't change. So the normal over the next decade or two may be 12 named storms, 6-7 hurricanes, and 3-4 majors.
That said, I think that all signals point to a "normal" 2006 season. I expect activity to increase significantly over the next week as two factors coincide. The first is a negative to neutral NAO, meaning a weaker Bermuda High, decreased trade winds, and less shear across the MDO. The second is a strong upward-motion pulse moving across the Pacific into the Atlantic Basin within the next week.
For the rest of August, I expect that at least 2 named storms will form, one of them (perhaps both) will become a hurricane. September will likely be very activie. Could see 6-8 named storms with 2-3 majors. Probably a couple of named storms in October, including 1 hurricane. 1 last named storm in November.
For the season totals, I think somewhere in the range of what NOAA has been saying - 12-15. Of those, probably 5-7 hurricanes and about 3 majors. Could be as many as 4 majors. But if I had to pick specific numbers, I'd go with 13/6/3
As far as landfall probabilities, we've seen a persistent trof along the east U.S. coast for the past 3-4 months - not offshore, inland. The cool east Pacific subtropical waters supports a stronger Bermuda high. In this pattern, the east U.S. coast will be particularly vulnerable to a hurricane hit. Think 1999, 1996, 1954. I wouldn't climb out on a limb and say a major will hit the east coast, as one prominent forecast has said, but I do admit that there is a signficiantly increased risk of such a landfall in this pattern.
Secondarily, the current pattern would favor a hurricane hit in the NW Gulf, as in Texas. Again, think 1999 (Bret).
Over the coming decade, I think we'll see an average of 10-13 named storms each season, fewer than we've ssen the past 4-5 years. This will be due to an increasingly strong Bermuda high, as occurrec during the 1940s-1960s. But there will be some "quality" storms in the future. Florida - better watch out! Same for the Carolinas.
First of all, what is "normal"? Normal used to be about 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes. But that was before the NHC started naming subtropical storms. New satellite and remote sensing can help us detect tropical storms anywhere. That may add a storm every year or so as well. So I think that the new "normal" will be closer to 12 named storms, 6-7 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes.
But that "normal, above, does not take into account the above-normal Atlantic SST pattern that may persist for another 15-25 years. While the warmer SSTs may result in more intense (major) hurricanes, the number of named storms probably won't change. So the normal over the next decade or two may be 12 named storms, 6-7 hurricanes, and 3-4 majors.
That said, I think that all signals point to a "normal" 2006 season. I expect activity to increase significantly over the next week as two factors coincide. The first is a negative to neutral NAO, meaning a weaker Bermuda High, decreased trade winds, and less shear across the MDO. The second is a strong upward-motion pulse moving across the Pacific into the Atlantic Basin within the next week.
For the rest of August, I expect that at least 2 named storms will form, one of them (perhaps both) will become a hurricane. September will likely be very activie. Could see 6-8 named storms with 2-3 majors. Probably a couple of named storms in October, including 1 hurricane. 1 last named storm in November.
For the season totals, I think somewhere in the range of what NOAA has been saying - 12-15. Of those, probably 5-7 hurricanes and about 3 majors. Could be as many as 4 majors. But if I had to pick specific numbers, I'd go with 13/6/3
As far as landfall probabilities, we've seen a persistent trof along the east U.S. coast for the past 3-4 months - not offshore, inland. The cool east Pacific subtropical waters supports a stronger Bermuda high. In this pattern, the east U.S. coast will be particularly vulnerable to a hurricane hit. Think 1999, 1996, 1954. I wouldn't climb out on a limb and say a major will hit the east coast, as one prominent forecast has said, but I do admit that there is a signficiantly increased risk of such a landfall in this pattern.
Secondarily, the current pattern would favor a hurricane hit in the NW Gulf, as in Texas. Again, think 1999 (Bret).
Over the coming decade, I think we'll see an average of 10-13 named storms each season, fewer than we've ssen the past 4-5 years. This will be due to an increasingly strong Bermuda high, as occurrec during the 1940s-1960s. But there will be some "quality" storms in the future. Florida - better watch out! Same for the Carolinas.
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- Grease Monkey
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Oops Saw that Florida better watch out wow thought we might be slidding past this year....hehehe. But all and all here where i live we for some reason seem to get pasted up for rain drout numbers close to 600 we would kill for rain now but not a hurricane. I'd personally be happy if we knew when we would get some rain. Need it bad
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calamity wrote:My numbers are 14/7/4, and when I first made my prediction, I stated that my numbers may be a little high. If anything, I would drop the numbers down to 13/5/3, based on the current pattern. And here is “monthly break down:”
August – 2/1/0
September – 5/3/2
October – 2/1/1
November – 1/0/0
It looks like I'm about right on track, although we did have an extra storm in August.
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- Weatherfreak14
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By the way, this season is proof that a busy season doesn't have to necessarily mean that it's on this side of the Atlantic....
Here's the track chart for 1981, which also featured many recurving systems...
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... index.html
Frank
Here's the track chart for 1981, which also featured many recurving systems...
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... index.html
Frank
Last edited by Frank2 on Thu Sep 14, 2006 8:29 am, edited 1 time in total.
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- Evil Jeremy
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Frank2 wrote:By the way, this season is proof that a busy season doesn't have to necessarily mean that it's on this side of the Atlantic....
Here's the track for 1981, which also featured many recurving systems...
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... index.html
Frank
I remember 1981 very well. I tracked all of them that summer on my paper hurricane chart at the age of 15. Back then I used to wishcast all those storms to hit my area, but soon learned that wasn't going to be the case in 1981. Dennis was the only one that passed over us after producing drenching rains in south Florida, but it wasn't a big deal.
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- DESTRUCTION5
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As far as landfall probabilities, we've seen a persistent trof along the east U.S. coast for the past 3-4 months - not offshore, inland. The cool east Pacific subtropical waters supports a stronger Bermuda high. In this pattern, the east U.S. coast will be particularly vulnerable to a hurricane hit. Think 1999, 1996, 1954. I wouldn't climb out on a limb and say a major will hit the east coast, as one prominent forecast has said, but I do admit that there is a signficiantly increased risk of such a landfall in this pattern
Not happening this year...Looking more likely that if any Storms strike the US they will be from the Gulf/Caribean..
Not happening this year...Looking more likely that if any Storms strike the US they will be from the Gulf/Caribean..
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