Atlantic Waves / Model Indications

[Meso]

72 Hour GFS Run (12z)

MM5 Model run (00z) Still Picks up on the waves
NoGaps Model Run (00z) Shows a system off the african coast at the end of it's run

[Weatherfreak14]

Still looking to be more active soon.

Can anyone give me some shear forcasts?

[Meso]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8shr.GIF
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... midshr.GIF
http://www.wunderground.com/data/640x480/atlm_shear.gif

[ThunderMate]

120 12 GFS... still expects turn towards NW .

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_120l.gif

[Meso]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _384.shtml

Developing a newish low at the end of the run...Well things are deffinitely getting more active.. if these verify or not

[ThunderMate]

ANY NEW INFO ON THE WAVE IN THE EAST ATLANTIC AND IS DEVELOPEMENT STILL LOOKING POSSIBLE?

[tropicsPR]

This new wave coming out from Africa is a new and promising candidate. But it will hit a big wall of SAL...

[tropicsPR]

Do you remember an above-normal hurricane season with a strong SAL over the Atlantic?

[Air Force Met]

This new wave coming out from Africa is a new and promising candidate. But it will hit a big wall of SAL...

The dust shows up nice on this VIS Image

[SouthFloridawx]

The Wave off of Africa may end up sacrificing itself for the wave in front.

[wxmann_91]

Do you remember an above-normal hurricane season with a strong SAL over the Atlantic?

2001. Several storms were affected by the SAL (Chantal, Erin, Jerry, just to name a few). Erin rapidly intensified after leaving the SAL. Chantal struggled until it was a few hours away from landfall, where it rapidly intensified to a top end TS before making landfall. Jerry was expected to be the next big hurricane but died after passing the Lesser Antilles, and never came back.

2000 I believe was also a big SAL year. I believe Chris, Ernesto, Helene, and Joyce were all affected. Chris, Ernesto, and Joyce died, Helene barely managed to survive until reaching better conditions in the GOM.

Both of those years featured large SAL outbreaks well into September, and yet managed 15 named storms (by today's naming standards).

[SouthFloridawx]

I remember hearing about SAL a lot last year on this board.

[HenkL]

From the NAMMA project, forecast from this morning:

"This morning at around 8:00 UTC the tropical wave studied yesterday was located at 29*W and was translating westward at about 15-20 kts. QuikSCAT imagery indicated that the low-level center was located at 9*N and 29*W.
Indications of the SAL and dust show that the dust event is ending and will lessen dramatically over the next 24 hours as the next wave moves off the coast of west africa and the mid-to-upper-level high moves further west away from the continent decreasing the flow of dust. Today there is still some dust exiting Africa near Senegal.
An intense squall line that propagated off of Africa last night quickly continues to make its way off into the Atlantic south of the Cape verde Islands. The convection associated with this squall line remained significant through the early morning hours and has fairly good lightning signatures with it. The mission today includes sampling this convection.
The mission also includes sampling the dust that is located north and partially entrained into the wave. The dust is heaviest to the north and a clear air to dust transition flight track is planned. Hopefully the A-Train satellites’ overpass will collocate well with the flight mission, as is planned.
Over the next few days that wave over West Africa will emerge and many models including the GFS and the DREAM models expect the wave to have a good signature through many layers. The dust will be at a minimum over the next few days. Over the next 24 hours shear in the coastal W. African region will begin to increase again.
Conditions at Sal Island, CV are gusty and clearer than it has been lately. Forecast for landing today is overall good visibility with gusty winds around 15-20 kts. The SAL will begin to move out from over the CV Islands area today and scattered clouds are expected throughout the rest of today. Hi around 28*C with overnight low of 26*C. Tomorrow less gusty conditions and sunny, high around 29*C."

See the NAMMA site.

[Meso]

At the end of the new GFS run it is developing yet another system into a hurricane

384 hour gfs run (06z)