convection north between South America and Africa

[willjnewton]

even though the national hurricane center in there TWO said there Is NO tropical formation expected...Welp they were wrong, there is a huge blow up of convection north between south america and africa by the Weather.com tropical atlantic ocean satelite, updated at 11:3o am, so what does the global forecast models do with this tropical system???does it have any threats to the united states in the LONG TERM???please explain okay thankyou and by the way that convection remains persistant since yesterday

[skysummit]

The NHC is not wrong. There is no tropical formation expected. Just because the ITCZ is getting active, that doesn't mean we have a storm forming. Read the models thread....that'll tell you what the models are seeing.

[willjnewton]

but to make it easier can someone post the forecast models on my threaD also???so I will NOT make any more threaDS

[skysummit]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... arib.shtml
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ewalltropatl.html

[Meso]

Hrm... Snap Skysummit [Edited]

[ConvergenceZone]

even though the national hurricane center in there TWO said there Is NO tropical formation expected...Welp they were wrong, there is a huge blow up of convection north between south america and africa by the Weather.com tropical atlantic ocean satelite, updated at 11:3o am, so what does the global forecast models do with this tropical system???does it have any threats to the united states in the LONG TERM???please explain okay thankyou and by the way that convection remains persistant since yesterday

keep watching Will. While there won't be any tropical formation this weekend, there more than likely will be something(perhaps more than one system) forming this coming week...Folks on here are pointing out that the pattern is beginning to make the shift we've been waiting for, FINALLY, just don't expect anything this weekend.

[willjnewton]

okay thankyou all very much, as I will read the forecast model information you gave me

[ConvergenceZone]

there's more convection OVERALL out there now than I've seen in a long time. Couple this with the fact that we are getting into the final week of August. Something HAS to pop. There are also many more areas of concern now(even though the conservative TWO isn't mentioning them yet).