Possible GoM Tropical Threat next Tuesday/Wednesday?

[Yankeegirl]

Nice satellite pic... I think I am goingt o go to walmart and get some water and batteries,.....

[Steve]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.



This is what I'm watching for - the cloudtops are pretty cold right now so IMHO, there is solid potential energy in the SW Caribbean. Look for the tops to warm this evening and stew back up tomorrow am. To me, that's seems like the earliest chance for convective feedback processes. I think it was Loiscane who said that sometimes you can get the pulse on systems by watching them from their infancy. Something about colors and the look. Watch the pulseups and downs and you can catch the vibe of that particular system (even if it was the Jimi Hendrix of storm discussions. (Yo bobbi))

We'll see.

Steve




Edited by Lindaloo to add proper disclaimer

[tropicsgal05]

I agree the satellite is looking a little scary. lol

[SouthFloridawx]

As I posted last night...

It looks like the shear in the Caribbean continues to drop.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

The ULL in the Caribbean continues to weaken.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8vor1.html

[BreinLa]

Yikes, okay now I am gonna watch real close

[Extremeweatherguy]

This thing is starting to look much better. I would be very surprised if it was not mentioned in the 5:30pm TWO.

[Nimbus]

The storm center seems to be forming just offshore Nicaragua. Perhaps the NAM was initialized too far south. Proximity to land and shear may delay development till it moves away from the coast of Honduras. The models should be getting a better handle on the future track though.

[Dean4Storms]

If that deep convection keeps re-firing near 14n 78w I would suspect that a surface low would begin to form there. Does look rather impressive this pm.

[gatorcane]

yep looking good today....I agree it should be mentioned in the TWO

[weatherrabbit_tx]

thats in the general area where hurricane carla started in 1961 I'm sure things were a different set up back then

[Extremeweatherguy]

I do not like the 12Z NAM loop:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

It takes this into the BOC, strengthens it to 1000mb, and then it turns it north toward TX.

However, I do not trust the models at this point, so I will not worry yet (but if it develops, then that's a different story)..

[bayoubebe]

What is the "TWO?"

[gatorcane]

things may get interesting with this one.....when something is in the SW Caribbean where UL winds are dropping and its late August......my eyebrows raise big time.

[Extremeweatherguy]

What is the "TWO?"

tropical weather outlook.

[gatorcane]

What is the "TWO?"

Tropical Weather Outlook posted by the NHC everyday every 6 hours.

[NONAME]

TWO are Found here http://www.nhc.noaa.gov

[bayoubebe]

Thanks guys.

[skysummit]

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE AREA IS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WHERE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN
77W-81W. THIS ACTIVITY IS HIGHLY CONTRIBUTED TO UPPER DIFFLUENCE
AT THE BASE OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IN THE WRN CARIBBEAN. A SFC
TROUGH OR TROPICAL WAVE WILL BE ADDED TO THE 18Z MAP TO REFLECT
WIND SHIFTS IN THE VICINITY SEEN AT THE SFC. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS EXIST FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 77W-84W. THE TROPICAL WAVE
IN THE ERN CARIBBEAN IS PRODUCING VERY LITTLE SHOWER
ACTIVITY...IN FACT BESIDES FOR THE CONVECTION OUTLINED ONLY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE COVERS THE ERN AND
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH WIDESPREAD DRY STABLE AIR E OF 62W. TRADE
WINDS ARE GENERALLY 15-20 KT ACROSS THE SEA WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 68W AND 77W. GFS INDICATES TRADES
INCREASING SLIGHTLY AND EXPANDING W OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THE DEEP MOISTURE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE TO THE WNW
AT 10-15 KT...WHILE THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CNTRL ATLC
INCREASES MOISTURE TO THE ERN ISLANDS LATE TUE.

[Stratosphere747]

Not what I wanted to see...

But was a matter of time with how things are beginning to evolve.

[Stratosphere747]

No doubt a mention in the next TWO, and expect an invest to pop up not soon after.