Possible GoM Tropical Threat next Tuesday/Wednesday?

[Extremeweatherguy]

It is certainly beginning to look better on Satellite. It has become more circular and has had a better outflow in recent frames.

[Sanibel]

Visible Floater loop needed pronto!


1010. Yikes. Anything less and I say go for take-off. Mark my words. If you see 1009 -1008- 1007 any time soon you won't be able to stop this in that area.

[flyingphish]

Being a coastal resident in SW Fl., this is the area of development that always makes me most concerned. There certainly have been some destructive storms spawned in this area. Hopefully, this is not about to be another one. I will be paying some attention for a day or two.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Visible Floater loop needed pronto!


1010. Yikes. Anything less and I say go for take-off. Mark my words. If you see 1009 -1008- 1007 any time soon you won't be able to stop this in that area.

yeah, I think a surface circulation is forming under that convection. If it does not die out within the next few hours, then I think an Invest is needed and Recon needs to be put on alert.

[gatorcane]

Being a coastal resident in SW Fl., this is the area of development that always makes me most concerned. There certainly have been some destructive storms spawned in this area. Hopefully, this is not about to be another one. I will be paying some attention for a day or two.

Yeah but fortunately it is late August - if this were late September or October I would be very concerned for the West Coast of Florida or South Florida.

[stormchazer]

Or they are waiting till the computer goob comes in tomorrow morning.

...hey wait. I am one of those computer goobs.

I suspect that a Floater will be moved if this area continues as it is going now.

[ronjon]

Pressures running pretty low at buoy in western Caribbean. SE trades running at 21 to 27 kts. So, the ambient surface pressure is not high like it was when Chris formed.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42057

[gatorcane]

I think the NHC will have to modify this from the 11:30AM TWO....

Boy how quickly things change in the tropics

000
ABNT20 KNHC 201503
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SUN AUG 20 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN

[gatorcane]

the shear is relaxing too as you can see the big thunderstorm tops are "fanning" out in a symmetric fashion - a sign that this thing is getting its act together quickly.
Do we have a quickstat on this?

[ROCK]

Visible Floater loop needed pronto!


1010. Yikes. Anything less and I say go for take-off. Mark my words. If you see 1009 -1008- 1007 any time soon you won't be able to stop this in that area.

yeah, I think a surface circulation is forming under that convection. If it does not die out within the next few hours, then I think an Invest is needed and Recon needs to be put on alert.

can't see it. Might be right underneith the convection.... Which is not good....I agree Invest needed pronto and while they are at it, fuel the plane.......

[Frank P]

I think the NHC will have to modify this from the 11:30AM TWO....

Boy how quickly things change in the tropics

000
ABNT20 KNHC 201503
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SUN AUG 20 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN

If the convection continues like it has this morning the NHC might have to pay some serious attention to the blob down in the Caribbean... starting to get that "look" about it.... see what it does during the remainder of the day, and if it gets the NHC attention later tonight

[Extremeweatherguy]

Visible Floater loop needed pronto!


1010. Yikes. Anything less and I say go for take-off. Mark my words. If you see 1009 -1008- 1007 any time soon you won't be able to stop this in that area.

yeah, I think a surface circulation is forming under that convection. If it does not die out within the next few hours, then I think an Invest is needed and Recon needs to be put on alert.

can't see it. Might be right underneith the convection.... Which is not good....I agree Invest needed pronto and while they are at it, fuel the plane.......

Yeah, I can't see it either, that is why I fear it could be forming smack dab under the convection.

[ROCK]

the shear is relaxing too as you can see the big thunderstorm tops are "fanning" out in a symmetric fashion - a sign that this thing is getting its act together quickly.
Do we have a quickstat on this?

didnt see one this am....

[gatorcane]

Visible Floater loop needed pronto!


1010. Yikes. Anything less and I say go for take-off. Mark my words. If you see 1009 -1008- 1007 any time soon you won't be able to stop this in that area.

yeah, I think a surface circulation is forming under that convection. If it does not die out within the next few hours, then I think an Invest is needed and Recon needs to be put on alert.

can't see it. Might be right underneith the convection.... Which is not good....I agree Invest needed pronto and while they are at it, fuel the plane.......

Yeah, I can't see it either, that is why I fear it could be forming smack dab under the convection.

if it is under the convection and the shear really does relax entirely as it looks like it is going to watch out this thing could really bomb out quickly...........with extremely high SSTs there.

[chrisnnavarre]

Visible Floater loop needed pronto!


1010. Yikes. Anything less and I say go for take-off. Mark my words. If you see 1009 -1008- 1007 any time soon you won't be able to stop this in that area.

yeah, I think a surface circulation is forming under that convection. If it does not die out within the next few hours, then I think an Invest is needed and Recon needs to be put on alert.

can't see it. Might be right underneith the convection.... Which is not good....I agree Invest needed pronto and while they are at it, fuel the plane.......

Told ya, they'd need fuel for those planes today....

This is going to be a storm, and once it gets in the GOM, I'd be willing to bet a BIG storm too.

[ROCK]

Visible Floater loop needed pronto!


1010. Yikes. Anything less and I say go for take-off. Mark my words. If you see 1009 -1008- 1007 any time soon you won't be able to stop this in that area.

yeah, I think a surface circulation is forming under that convection. If it does not die out within the next few hours, then I think an Invest is needed and Recon needs to be put on alert.

can't see it. Might be right underneith the convection.... Which is not good....I agree Invest needed pronto and while they are at it, fuel the plane.......

Yeah, I can't see it either, that is why I fear it could be forming smack dab under the convection.

if it is under the convection and the shear really does relax entirely as it looks like it is going to watch out this thing could really bomb out quickly...........with extremely high SSTs there.

As of today....

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

[Senobia]

On this loop image, it looks like an eye formed by the 80 degree lat. marker. What say you?

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huirloop.html

[ronjon]

Rock, I don't like that dark spot off the west coast of FL on the max wind potential. Yikes, greater than 165 kts!

[Extremeweatherguy]

On this loop image, it looks like an eye formed by the 80 degree lat. marker. What say you?

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huirloop.html

I don't see an eye, but I do see a rapidly organizing system.

[hicksta]

What is the NAM showing