Hurricane Ioke thread

[senorpepr]

I thought it was I-O-kee?

Me too, but I found the right way to pronounce it was "ee-OH-keh".

It's a Hawaiian word. (I knew those years of studying the language would finally pay off!)

The vowels are much like in Spanish: eh (A), ay (E), ee (I), oh (O), oo (U).

ee-OH-kay

[WindRunner]

TROPICAL STORM IOKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006
500 AM HST SUN AUG 20 2006

TROPICAL STORM IOKE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE IN 48 HOURS. ITS NORTHWESTERLY PATH WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE IT OVER WARM 28 DEGREE C WATER THROUGHOUT ITS ENTIRE PROJECTED TRACK. HOWEVER BY DAY 4 IOKE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TRAVELING UNDER OPPOSING NORTH WINDS HIGH ALOFT INCREASING TO NEAR 20 KNOTS OF SHEAR BY DAY 5. WE WILL CONTINUE TO ABIDE BY THE CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST BUT HAVE NUDGED THE PATH WESTWARD TO BE IN GREATER AGREEMENT WITH THE MULTIPLE MODEL ARRAY...THE PREFERRED PATH IS MOST CLOSELY ALIGNED TO CONU CONSENSUS THRU 72 HOURS AND THEN THE GFS MODEL IN THE LATER PERIODS WHICH IS THE MOST EASTERN POSITIONED OF THE BUNCH. THE PATH TAKES IT ABOUT 100 NM SOUTHWEST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND IN 48 HOURS PLACING PJON WITHIN IOKES GALE FORCE RADII.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/1500Z 10.9N 160.9W 35 KT
12HR VT 21/0000Z 11.6N 163.2W 40 KT
24HR VT 21/1200Z 12.8N 166.1W 50 KT
36HR VT 22/0000Z 14.0N 168.6W 60 KT
48HR VT 22/1200Z 15.4N 171.0W 65 KT
72HR VT 23/1200Z 17.9N 174.3W 70 KT
96HR VT 24/1200Z 20.4N 176.1W 70 KT
120HR VT 25/1200Z 22.6N 177.2W 65 KT


$$ FORECASTER MATSUDA


Southward/westward shift bringing it ever closer to the date line . . . at this point, the forecast shows that it might just make it into the WPAC as a typhoon.

[StormScanWx]

How rare or common is it to have development in the CPAC, such as Ioke?

[clfenwi]

Relatively rare as this is the first named storm to form in the Central Pacific since Huko in 2002.

[WmE]

Yeah and development is usually linked to El Nino events. During the 2002 El nino season there formed 3 storms in the CPac.

[Cyclenall]

How rare or common is it to have development in the CPAC, such as Ioke?

I answered this question in another thread or at least explained something about it. It's not common for there to be a home-grown tropical storm in the Cpac ocean but the past 3 years had 1 TD in that basin. The last time there was a named storm that was home-grown in the Cpac was 2002 which was a "busy" year.

Looking at the images, this can't be 35 knots anymore. There is a large burst of deep convection at the center and everything is going well for Ioke. The 2nd discussion was excellent and I totally agreed with it. It was very long and detailed which is another plus. The 3rd one was not so good because it was very short and had the strength still at 35 knots?? I hope who ever written the 2nd discussion (Nash) writes them the most for Ioke since I enjoyed that one.

The track, I would like to see it go most west so that it can strengthen more and maybe enter in the Wpac which would be fun. The models last night all had the same track!

[WmE]

Impressive

[WindRunner]

Looking at the images, this can't be 35 knots anymore.

I'll second that! Unfortunately, the CPHC relies all too much on Dvorak estimates, and untill they break 2.5 I doubt we'll see a further upgrade. Hopefully they would upgrade to at least 40/45kts at 11am PST just based on what's going in their eyeballs and regardless of the 18Z Dvorak numbers (yet to be released).

[clfenwi]

TPPZ1 KGWC 201822
A. TROPICAL STORM (IOKE)
B. 20/1731Z (67)
C. 11.1N/3
D. 161.1W/9
E. SIX/GOES11
F. T3.0/3.0/D1.5/21HRS -20/1731Z-
G. IR/EIR

38A/ PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .80 ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDING AN UN-REP DT OF 3.5. FT BASED ON
PT. CONSTRAINTS BROKEN DUE TO RAPID DEVELOPMENT.


AODT: 3.0(IRREG CDO)


HAMILTON

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TXPN40 PHFO 201823
TCSCP

CENTRAL PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY - FIXES
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1822 UTC SUN AUG 20 2006

TROPICAL STORM IOKE LOCATED AT 11.0N 162.0W AT 20/1730 UTC BASED ON
GOES WEST 1 KM VIS AND 4 KM IR RESOLUTION SECTOR AND ANIMATION.
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM. ESTIMATED MAXIMUM 1 MINUTE MEAN WIND
SPEED 45 KT. MOVEMENT ESTIMATED TOWARDS 280 DEGREES AT 16 KT OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS.

T3.0/3.0/D2.0/24 HOURS

REMARKS...IOKE IS SHOWING SIGNS OF RAPID DEVELOPMENT WITH CONVECTION
CONSOLIDATING AROUND THE CENTER...SUPPORTED BY A GOOD AMSUB PASS AT
1609 UTC. USING A CDO OF 1.75 DEG...FT IS 4.0. AFTER REANALYZING
PRIOR FIXES IN A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING SYSTEM... MET IS 3.0...
CONSTRAINING THE PAT TO 3.5. CONSTRAINTS HOLD THE FINAL T TO 3.0.
AODT YIELDS 4.7.

$$
WROE

[JonathanBelles]

TPPZ1 KGWC 201822
A. TROPICAL STORM (IOKE)
B. 20/1731Z (67)
C. 11.1N/3
D. 161.1W/9
E. SIX/GOES11
F. T3.0/3.0/D1.5/21HRS -20/1731Z-
G. IR/EIR

38A/ PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .80 ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDING AN UN-REP DT OF 3.5. FT BASED ON
PT. CONSTRAINTS BROKEN DUE TO RAPID DEVELOPMENT.


AODT: 3.0(IRREG CDO)


HAMILTON

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TXPN40 PHFO 201823
TCSCP

CENTRAL PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY - FIXES
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1822 UTC SUN AUG 20 2006

TROPICAL STORM IOKE LOCATED AT 11.0N 162.0W AT 20/1730 UTC BASED ON
GOES WEST 1 KM VIS AND 4 KM IR RESOLUTION SECTOR AND ANIMATION.
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM. ESTIMATED MAXIMUM 1 MINUTE MEAN WIND
SPEED 45 KT. MOVEMENT ESTIMATED TOWARDS 280 DEGREES AT 16 KT OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS.

T3.0/3.0/D2.0/24 HOURS

REMARKS...IOKE IS SHOWING SIGNS OF RAPID DEVELOPMENT WITH CONVECTION
CONSOLIDATING AROUND THE CENTER...SUPPORTED BY A GOOD AMSUB PASS AT
1609 UTC. USING A CDO OF 1.75 DEG...FT IS 4.0. AFTER REANALYZING
PRIOR FIXES IN A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING SYSTEM... MET IS 3.0...
CONSTRAINING THE PAT TO 3.5. CONSTRAINTS HOLD THE FINAL T TO 3.0.
AODT YIELDS 4.7.

$$
WROE

which means??

[WmE]

Rapid development?
Here we go!

[Cyclenall]

Looking at the images, this can't be 35 knots anymore.

I'll second that! Unfortunately, the CPHC relies all too much on Dvorak estimates, and untill they break 2.5 I doubt we'll see a further upgrade. Hopefully they would upgrade to at least 40/45kts at 11am PST just based on what's going in their eyeballs and regardless of the 18Z Dvorak numbers (yet to be released).

Hopefully Forecaster Nash will write the next one since he seems to agree with my thinking and has lots of detail. Nash wrote that Ioke could rapidly strengthen which is very possible since Cpac have done that before. I would say right now Ioke is quickly strengthening and should be at 45 knots or higher soon.

Now here is another thing that got my attention:

400 AM HST SUN AUG 20 2006
FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

The Central Pacific Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on tropical storm Ioke, located about 750 miles south-southwest of Honolulu. See public advisories under AWIPS header HFOTCPCP2 or WMO header WTPA32 PHFO for additional information.

An area of thunderstorms about 900 miles southeast of Hilo Hawaii lacks significant organization. Development, if any, will be slow to occur.
Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected through early Tuesday morning.

So now there is another system that could develop? Something like this happened in 2002....

[clfenwi]

(Dvorak estimates snipped)


which means??

Both the Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Air Force Weather Agency gave Ioke an intensity estimate of 3.0, which equals 45 knots.

[HURAKAN]

To have a system develop in the CPAC is impressive, to have such a well-developed system in the CPAC is astonishing!!!

[Cyclenall]

To have a system develop in the CPAC is impressive, to have such a well-developed system in the CPAC is astonishing!!!

You what else is astonishing? The fact that there is a new invest in the Cpac. It's called Invest 92C.

[JonathanBelles]

what is that in the top left of the screen?

[WmE]

The next system to form would be called Kika.

[wxmann_91]

The CPAC is cooking!!

Ioke is definitely looking good today. I was looking at the other disturbance yesterday night and thought that it was impossible that would persist as well. Apparently it did.

[bob rulz]

Is it just me or do I already see tight spiral banding forming on Ioke?

[WmE]

Ioke's now a decent tropical storm.

000
WTPA32 PHFO 202049
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IOKE ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006
1100 AM HST SUN AUG 20 2006

TROPICAL STORM IOKE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE ON MONDAY BUT WILL CONTINUE ON A TRACK SAFELY AWAY FROM HAWAII.

AT 1100 AM HST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IOKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 162.6 WEST OR ABOUT 760 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU.

IOKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM HST POSITION...11.3 N...162.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM HST.

$$ FORECASTER NASH